The science just isn't there to get past guess work. Fulmer a good example where those of us that dismissed his injury history were wrong, we should have made a trade. OTOH, Sanchez had a horrible 2x TJ past and pitched for years afterward, though no doubt he didn't throw as hard as Skubal. One thing in Tarik's favor is that he is more a change of speed guy than a pure spin guy, but that bit of conventional wisdom probably isn't really worth much.