gehringer_2

loosely metaphorical description of his not letting Freider coach the NCAA.

To bring in someone from the outside would in a way actually be closer to the UK model where the Speaker of the House of Commons renounces his party affiliation when he is elected. I've always wondered how the people in the district he stands in for the next election feel about that.

I suppose it depends on how much of the old Bo kind of sentiment still exists in the AD and admin -- As in 'if you can't decide you want to be here, we can find someone else just like we found you." You have to remember the people Harbaugh is dealing are mostly people with big accomplishments of their own and if they believe Harbaugh's success is at least as much due to the University as it is to him, there will be a limit to how much of the Hamlet routine will help him. The old "This is Michgan" routine, "we can get anyone we want to come here." Not saying this is the case, but that it's always a possibility to keep in mind. Remember Bo as AD locked a guy out of the building that had gotten him to an NCAA championship for 'disloyalty'. I wouldn't necessarily assume that level of arrogance doesn't still exist in the people Harbaugh is negotiating with so they probably are not going to be easy enough for him to roll that they are going to fall over because of a press release. And of course the bottom line if he wants more money is that Manuel has to find it somewhere on the outside and if he can't you have to get the regents onboard (i.e. cat herding) and either of those can take time. So if Harbaugh is sitting on a time sensitive NFL offer there is another factor. Oddly enough, J Howard's current struggles probably increase Harbaugh's leverage if makes them think twice about how hard it is to replace a winning coach.

And the McCarthy clique keeps putting out that they are "this close!" while yet admitting they still can't get to 218 (that's 'phase two') and while the votes show they aren't actually moving anyone.

Geez, that only isn't a 'hard no', that's a 'why doesn't someone give me a call?'

Agree on one level, but OTOH, like I noted before, the real problem is lack of leadership inside the GOP conference to tell him to end it, or even organize additional votes against him to make the point to him. McCarthy is acting puerile, but it's also true that he is being enabled by the rest of them.

It not so much change in the contribution of a particular variable over time, the question would be whether the contribution is the same for two different teams that have different hitting profiles. IOW, the question is if you add player with profile 'X' to team A he will the combination of 'X' have more impact than if you add him to team 'B.' I'm not saying the premise is true, but just wondering whether the possibility has ever even been investigated with any rigor, because I can certainly conceive that it could be true.

when I bought my first house, the previous owner left a poster on the wall in the rec room. It was a pic of W.C. Fields with the caption: "If at first your don't succeed, try, try again. ....Then quit. No use being a damn fool about it." Very appropos.

plus I don't see how the CFG deal moves the 20. They are largely free agent campaigners with their own funding mechanisms in districts where they are not particularly worried about leadership trying to screw them.

One problem, which a couple of commentators brought up, is that there is just enough truth to some of the rebels' complaints to give them more credibility with some marginal crazies that might otherwise get peeled back to the mainstream. I can understand the frustration of Rep in a Congress where they basically are only there to rubber stamp decisions by their leadership. Why would a person serious about legislation run for the House where members haven't been allowed to offer amendments to legislation to take an open vote since Hastert? And we can certainly blame the Democratic House leadership almost as much for allowing these rules, which were started by the GOP, to become institutionalized instead of rolling them back once they were back in power. I am old enough to remember when Bills could pass the House with easy majorities made up mostly of the minority party because the legislation still commanded an overall majority. Such a vote is not even allowed in the House by either side anymore. Is it any wonder under such rules that partisanship dominates everything? The rules of the game matter, but few people are interested in them as political issues so this is what we get.

I wonder if it doesn't becomes a self fulfilling prophecy though. Once you start down the road of bringing in high ISO low OBP players, do high OBP low ISO players then become comparatively more useless because you won't have enough BA in the lineup to move them around if they do get on base? (which is basically where I would say the Tigers have been recently.) Which I think is an interesting question for the stat gurus. Based on considerations like this, I might argue that you can't really establish an truly predictive global correlation like one between OBP and runs created - maybe there are internal dependancies within team data depending on the properties of each line-up. If that is true, who knows how many teams may actually giving themselves bad (or at least sub-optimal) advice.

The logic (not sure we should admit the premise that the GOP conference is capable of logic, but be that as it may....) if you extend McCarthy's argument to the 202, it is that he must be elected otherwise the 202 is allowing itself to be 'held hostage' by the 20. But if he gives the 20 the ability to collapse his speakership at any time, then he is still allowing the 20 the hold the body hostage. So there really isn't any *logic* under which his speakership can make sense at this point. In fact, all he he is doing is making it more difficult the person who comes next, whether that is in the immediate case or when the 20 eventually force McCarthy out anyway (1st debt ceiling call?) who will need to walk back McCarthy's concessions to have any hope of succeeding themselves, at which point we probably get another edition of a similar dog and pony show. What kind of idiot voters elect people to serve the government who only want to kill it?

Look at this this way, it just means McCarthy won't be speaker for very long.

I don't think anything good can come of any of this in the end. The FC 20 are idiots but the other 202 are mostly spineless anti-democratic fascist enablers. No hope from having any aspect of the House GOP party in control of anything. But they have the numbers so one way or the other they are going to have control. And they will surely make a muck of it.

you don't think people in who can do one man jobs like carpentry or yes, coding tasks like web page prep, have opportunities to work off the books to avoid taxes?

I also wonder how many are just working black. People can be doing light fabrication and design with 3d printers, remote web and programming tasks for cash payment and with home improvement work through the roof (also due to remote work) you probably have a LOT of builder/home reno guys that might also be working black. IIRC we saw some of this in the construction business after the last crash when guys laid off as construction employees had to start freelancing.

ex Rep Jolly made a good point on MSNBC though. Just because McCarthy has the majority, even a large one, of the caucus, doesn't mean he in someway 'deserves' the speakership. You need 218 and he doesn't have them. Many other members might be able to find a majority but not 218. What is really going on is that the caucus is so devoid of internal leadership and maturity, that they are stuck hammering their heads against the wall between two bad alternatives instead of working up the internal negotiation process needed to get to the needed consensus. You can say the 20 are being intransigent, but so is McCarthy's refusal open the door to a different candidacy and sitting through repeated unproductive votes where he isn't moving the process at all either.

yup.

Not that easy though. That would take Dem support and 1)the Dems may or may not offer it 2) if you can't get a large % of the GOP members on board (and even if you do) any GOP rep that goes against the FC block is going to be threatened with a primary run against him.

Yeah - Urban's number is not in Warde's rolodex, not on his phone, not in his office, not in the building, nowhere on campus.

No question trust is the issue and why I don't see the Dems being in any hurry to accept offer from McCarthy's camp. I think it would have to be from someone they trust more.

I posted up thread last that one Dem spokesRep said the Dem opening position is no games on debt service or budget passage and no investigative fishing expeditions. Those are not low value gains for the Biden admin and so the Dems in general.

How is a 'compromise' bad if it nets you something you don't have today? The Dems are playing with House money (yeah- the pun works here). Anything they walk away with in a negotiation is pure profit. It's hugely in their interest for the gov not to shut down and for budgets to get passed in Biden's last two years.

meh - we don't really know. Maybe he understands that for whatever reasons he's not ready for the pressure of being back in the NHL. Considering the worst case - If it were an outright relapse situation he wouldn't be staying at GR either.

Rep Don Bacon on the air saying the GOP is willing to work with the Dems (i.e. make concession to them) to end this.