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gehringer_2

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Everything posted by gehringer_2

  1. meh - give his money to make sure you sign Larkin, who is really playing like a star this season.
  2. Probably not by anything he said, unless someone sues hoping some court might establish a new precedent in extending fraud law. I did read that they are looking into whether somewhere along the line he violated either a NY State or Federal law by filling out some required form falsely, which is a more straight up crime. The correct response is that any Congress run by a party with a shred of ethical spine would refuse to seat him, but we aren't holding our breath there.
  3. you are assuming the Gov actually has some kind of legal lever to tell an airline what kind of management SW to run. I think you would find they do not. It's called 'free' enterprise for a reason. Direct airline regulation ended nearly 40 yrs ago. There is no longer any enabling legislation that allows the Transportation Sec to tell an airline how to run the details of their business.
  4. Yzerman has a few days to move someone for a pick. 😉 The bad part is we really don't know what we get out of Fabbri or Vrana. Vrana has only a very short track record with the Wings and neither has any track record playing for Lalonde - who has the team playing a different game than the one the Wings were playing last season when Vrana and Fabbri had contributed. FTM Bertuzzi had shown pretty much nothing this season when he's managed to get on the ice.
  5. they should be in decent shape half a dozen points out of the wildcard with more than half a season left and supposedly front line players yet to return - but it would sure help to get a workable goal tending rotation going.
  6. Pretty modest career for a guy they had written in for Cooperstown before he ever played an inning in the majors.
  7. LOL - I don't know if they have gone downhill everywhere or just locally - Wendy's used to have regional franchises so maybe it's just the group here, but the one I used to hit for lunch just got progressively worse about misfiling orders to where I stopped going, then it just closed. When they first appeared, the stores with the taco/salad bars were the best. Been a long slow decline from there!
  8. yeah - I think he has actually looked better in recent appearances. But a guess given his judo and hockey playing history is that he has bouts of sciatica that can leave him in some level of pain when sitting upright or standing straight at a podium. That video of clip of his meeting with Shiogu that had everyone speculating could easily have just been back pain.
  9. Soderblom is an easy move organizationally, would be a bad move competitively. 4 points in his 4 games since returning, +4 in that span, and on only 10 min/game. There are half a dozen forwards who bring less than Soderblom is currently.
  10. wings were just asleep in front of Husso in the 1st. Dmen took turns getting beat at the net - Osterle, Walman and Hronek in turn I think - but they were carrying the play even while they were giving up the early lead. So who gets bumped for Vrana and Fabbri? Top of my list would might be be Suter - after that it's a tougher call.
  11. chart the data like this and you have your description Note that in 2009 and again in 2015 inflation rates bounced to zero. Conventional wisdom is that deflation can be unstable/self-accelerating so the prevailing theory is that it's safer to stay an average where bounces don't go below zero - thus the ~2% FED target. That may or not be the best economic science but that is the rationale they have been using for a few decades.
  12. People do lose jobs, but other people gain other jobs. Automation in today's world is no different that the industrial revolution was in the late 19th century world. You do get upheaval, but total employment does not go down. What industrialization and automation actually do is shift the amount of capital deployed upward for each worker, total production goes up, productivity per worker goes up, the total economy generates more wealth, and the employment profile across the economy changes. The mechanization of agriculture probably put far larger % of the total workforce 'out of jobs' than today's automation but all those workers and more were eventually absorbed by the new industrial economy. Computer based automation will be exactly the same - this time industrial workers (who today are a much smaller % of the workforce than agricultural workers were back in the day) will turn into some other kind of workers with an even higher capital utilization rate. The transition can either be harder or easier depending on government action and policy, but the conventional wisdom idea that total employment disappears, while intuitive, is incorrect.
  13. never a bad time to order mulitple cars......
  14. sure if your talent is unique enough it doesn't matter. No one ever sounded like Joplin, you can say the same about Aretha. But Winehouse comes close to the opposite case - she was almost as well known for her problems as her talent. The other way around it is to be your own songwriter - if you compose that is a whole different world compared to "just a singer" . If you have a look and write a little (or at least get credit for it), then the limit is more like...... Taylor Swift.
  15. In physical science your are usually looking for direct causality, and that should have a very high correlation at least at across some range and linearization - otherwise you are probably just looking at the correlate of some more fundamental factor you don't know - or your data is just too noisy. In social science or human survey data it's almost the opposite, you may be looking for things that may only be weakly causative or that only a fraction of the population responds strongly to. Sports metrics are probably somewhere in the middle of that continuum - some things very directly causative (FB velo), some things maybe tied to other factors that are partially hidden - for instance maybe curveball spin matters more at particular spin axes. And then some things probably get into more psychologically dominated effects where some players may react and some don't at all so you get the average results of sub populations with high and low correlation respectively.
  16. LGs problem, if you want to call it that, is that she is not 'pretty' in any classic way, and as a female performer that puts her at such a disadvantage that all that 'other stuff' is an outgrowth of the fact, much like it was for Madonna. If you're cute as a button Linda Ronstadt or knock down gorgeous Beyonce then you don't need any of that to get the industry to pay attention to you long enough to actually hear your talent.. Just the way it is.
  17. I think you just wrote a pretty good NBA head coach to-do list.
  18. I would say the issue here is that to simply have some detectable level of effect is not a very high bar (this is also the bugaboo about drug trials). You could have enough additional success for you statistics to still show some effect, but how much would it be worth in terms of making enough difference matter given all the other drivers in a given game? I tend to think that in general, those things which have high the highest correlation are likely to be causative and the lower correlated effects are likely simply secondary correlates of those primary drivers. I think this logic holds in particular when you can at least posit the direct action of factor (e.g. a faster faster fastball required a batter with faster reflexes), as compared to more diffuse or generalized outcome measurements,
  19. Of course the converse is that if guys like that didn't buy them, even if just to park them, they might not get built at all. The possibilities are myriad though. If Bugatti can't sell one really terrible Veryon, maybe they build two less individually terrible but still in total terrible cars that two other people who buy them *will* drive. The mind boggles.
  20. they have to refuse, they need the issue far more than they want a solution. The issue helps them get elected, a solution would take away the issue - or worse - give them direct ownership of whatever the new status quo turns out to be, which will be less than perfect since all real world situations are. Chalk it up to the basic ignorance of the American voter who doesn't see that the current situation is largely the result of GOP refusal to meaningfully address the issue for those 12 years. But that's how the US political cookie crumbles.
  21. right - but there was always a bit of an unknown around how long boomers would choose to stay in the workforce. The counter arg was that by some measures a lot of them didn't have the resources put aside to retire comfortably and thus would keep working longer than their predecessors. The degree to which people have decided to make do with the retirement income they have was an open question.
  22. Seems like that should be something that training could address. If you have the fast twitch it's going to be in all the muscle groups, not just the straight line ones. The counter would be that his lateral problem is not physical limitation but a mental one - insufficient recognition/anticipation. That might or might not be as fixable.
  23. Good stuff What about slider spin? I get FB and curveball spin, but slider spin would be interesting because my pet theory is that that is the one most destructive to a pitcher's arm - it would be intreresting to confirm if the risk was at least worth it! I remember it was Jobe's slider spin they were so raptured about.
  24. ironically, unless he is putting them out to rental, an individual collector like that actually insures that most of those cars never get driven. He's helping the environment by keeping all but one of them at a time parked in the garage - amirite?
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