the thing I worry about with Iran is along the lines of MB's post above. The regime has been pushed hard before by protest and absorbed the blow pretty easily. One of the things in the West is that like Iraq before the war, we see mostly the Iranians who want what we want. The western press is always looking for the protestors. But once you get outside Teheran, how deeply conservative is the rest of the population? We don't know because we don't see/hear from them. It would be tragic if it turns out the parallel to Afghanistan holds, where the real problem for all those westernized people in Kabul was less our perfidy than the fact that a huge portion of the countryside actually does want to live in the 7th century.
I hope you are right, but with no US boots on the ground to take physical control of the levers of power and then hand them to the right people, it's still looks like a crap shoot to me. Which is definitely not saying I want US boots on the ground there.