gehringer_2

Even before Trump was elected, Paul Krugman wrote a piece about the maximum likely effects of Tariffs and the proportions of the economy dependent on import/export and he basically said the same thing - a tariff regime would be counter-productive but not likely the end of the world. Of course what nobody anticipated was that it would not only be tariffs but pure chaos, and the chaos is probably having at least as much deleterious effect on the economy as the tariffs themselves. Plus the thing this all misses is that tariffs do have an outsize effect on consumer's sense of inflation because other than food, a ton of consumer shopping is for imported goods. And as the Biden admin found out, it doesn't matter what the inflation number really is, all that matters is how it feels to voters. And that not only has the obvious political fallout but also, to the degree it reduces consumer confidence, a slowdown can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

absolutely. In historical terms, 6.5% is a little high, but not any worse than rates often were in the 70s-80s-90's in periods when housing boomed. But people then were buying houses at maybe 2-5X annual income. Now 10x is as likely.

The Hyundai raid may be have been the dumbest one yet. But more generally, have they yet fined or even brought a single employer to court? This is exactly analogous to drugs and pushers. You can bust all the pushers you want, but as long as there are users, new ones will arise in their place because the profit is worth the risk from enforcement. You can bust and deport all the workers you want, as long as there is no effective penalty for hiring them, the profit from low wage workers is higher than any cost they bear from enforcement - (which only seems to fall on the workers). So the jobs for undocumented workers remain, and If the jobs stay, they will keep drawing illegal workers, who in the end will fail to be dissuaded from coming by all the depravity ICE throws at them for that purpose, because humans will just put up with whatever they have to put up with to support themselves and their families.

And Trump is so economically illiterate - he probably thinks this is great since now he might even get a 50 basis point interest cut. And inflation will wipe out his party by the end of the next cycle.

Bert you have me one-upped. I'll up on the west shore the Keewenah this weekend. I'll get the trees and sky, but no mountains . Lake Superior is cool (literally - it's already snowed up there once), but hard to say anything new in a water under sky picture (at least at my level of graphics skill!)

this reminds me of a the column Brooks wrote this week. He defended that he 'can't' be a liberal even now because he doesn't agree with liberal welfare policy. What total naivete in a grown-ass man. If you don't get on the lib side now you aren't going to have the option to debate welfare policy in the future. Idiot.

It was murder on the high seas. I would be nice if every American could take off their Jingo glasses long enough to see a little reality.

and have to say Newsom isn't helping in that regard. Started out clever but the quality of the gibes is fading.

Other things being constant, BaBIP will correlate to EV and LD%, but since other things aren't constant and since it's really LD% (or launch angle distribution if you want to be modern) and EV that are the 1st order inputs that tell you something. and since they are now more available, you can look at those things directly.

One game isn't enough to mean much - yet. But it's just to highlight that there are so many wildcards now that didn't exist in the past.

No sacks today.

All bankers hate inflation, it transfers wealth from the banks to the borrowers. If that's the pool of people most of the candidates start from, the result isn't surprising.

They need to rebuild pitching depth. Too many guys either hurt - Brieske, Gunether, Olson, Jobe, Foley, Lange , Madden, or pitching like the DL is their likely next stop - Hurter, Flaherty. The extra starting depth we thought we had at the end of 23/24 (Manning, Wentz, Faedo) has evaporated to thin air. The pitching staff is last year's Lion defense.

read the docs. The Athletic department had to get $16M from the general fund to close their deficit. You can believe what you want, that's the budget that was actually approved at the Regent's meeting. Sure they make money, and they burn through it like Beasley with his rent money. With more money now due to the players, they have been thrown out of balance in a way they haven't been in my memory. The Athletic department almost always returns at least some money to the GF or else funds some kind of project for the general student body like IM facilties. That buys them goodwill North of Hill Street. It's pretty much the same deal at most BiG's. As long as the Athletic dept turns a profit, everyone is happy. When they can't do that, nobody is happy.

LOL - I suppose one man's reason can be another's foolishness, and a third might argue that reasonableness is never the correct measure of moral imperatives. But whatever -- whether the Astros won or lost those games had no real impact on me, or the price of tea in China, so I'm not a person to whom he has anything to answer. Thus my forgiveness, freely given, is both cheap and easy.

Good column about baseball and gambling by JR Moehringer in the NYT. (NYT supposedly still allows non-subscribers to view some variable number of stories per month) https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/06/opinion/gambling-baseball-ohtani-pete-rose-fanduel.html?searchResultPosition=1

thinking back on the comparison with Leyland, one comparitive weakness in Leyland's teams is that they weren't drilled on the little stuff the way the Tigers are now. I don't think we would have seen the total PFP failure we had in the WS from a Hinch team.

I want to see what he has when he come back next year, two years out from surgery, but can't disagree that so far on his return his pitch mix isn't enough

Bottom line is all he could have done is quit, and if he had done that unexpectedly, it very likely would have produced enough scrutiny on the team that someone probably would have gotten the story and the result is he would have thrown all the players on his team under the bus. So sure he could have, but not exactly a decision that's in the same ball park as rocky road or rainbow sherbet.

I wonder if lack of activity on the portal was budget driven. I know people don't believe that a program like M ever worries about money, and big donors not withstanding, Manuel having to beg $$ (16M) from the general fund this year is sort of big deal in terms of historical precedent. The program is not supposed to cost the rest of the school money. That's the bases for maintaining peace between the jocks and the gowns.

and what if Underwood starts doubting that playing in this regime meets his career plans and bolts?

two games in, 21 posts? Sic transit gloria mundi

Urquidy with a good outing for the Hens tonight - 3IP, 0H, 0R, 3K. Unfortunately Brant Hurter got lit up for 4 runs on 4 hits in 1 IP and took a blown save and the loss. Doesn't appear close to figuring it out.

Your in the neighbourhood - that's close enough.

Did Haynes miss a blitz pickup or drop a pass or something?