gehringer_2

People love to argue bad intent, but that is pretty silly really. Ilitch wants to win, Avila wants to win. They may or may not know how to get there but arguments that their motivation is suspect is just venting. Everyone in a losing org should be under pressure - that is part of Ilitch's job.

so I grew up in NW Detroit and there was a good size shopping area at Grand River and Greenfield, anchored on the three corners by a Ward's, a Federal's, and Hughes and Hatcher men's store. The Ward's and the Federal's had parking lots behind the buildings. Someone had a house in middle of the Federal's lot they wouldn't sell. It must have stood there in the middle of the parking lot for 20-30 years. Somebody died, the house was finally torn down, but not long after the whole shopping area was toast anyway. In the end it didn't bother anyone.

so will he change his delivery when he comes back? If he does, will he be as effective?

that's the frustration isn't it? If you are the owner do you want to throw away the work done to this point? But why are they getting there only now instead of 4 yrs ago? I suppose to some degree you sometimes have to wait for people you want to become available or negotiate over time to get people that are available, but this org has been glacial.

it wouldn't be out of character in the context of the Ilitch org historically. but that was Mike and Mike is gone.

how many of the guys in those roles today are the ones from even 3 yrs ago. To me the biggest critique of Avila isn't that he doesn't have a sense of where the org needs to go, but that he has been way too slow getting the org there. Is that all him, or is that as fast a the owner wants to move yr by yr? Who knows?

It comes down to trying to predict whether desperation psychology is a plus or minus in a situation like this. Hinch and Avila have been 100% 'stay the course, it is inevitable these players will come around'. The alternative is to start firing people and churning the roster and who know what you may give away in your haste to create motion. How many players are more likely to respond to patience as opposed to a kick in the ass? Damned if I or anyone else really knows.

if you want new leadership but want to preserve some of the organizational reforms Al has done you bump him to team President and put a player acquisition specialist into the GM role while Al worries about resources, marketing and finances.

good point, though a stance doesn't matter that much IF you get out of it early enough in the cycle. I think as big an issue is to get your head to it's stable point quickly. If your eyes are still moving once you are trying to track the pitch you are toast. Just as comparison, I used to think this was Alex Avila's big Achilles heel, but for him it was because he started too upright and his head was still always moving down while he was already in his swing. But in general, it seems logical you want to start with your eyes as close to the path of the ball as possible and execute your swing with as little translation of your head as possible, what movement there is needs to happen early in the load so your eyes can be set during your swing.

LOL - Isn't the number 9 trillion? That's more like 8 yrs, but point taken, it's no fire sale. Interesting to think about what it means if they end up having to discount it deeply to sell it. You can argue that it become stimulative in some sense if they are sold below market..... There actually seems to be some contradiction in the statements from the governors recently with some saying they want to transition to purely treasury holdings and other saying they won't sell MBS in the early stages of the sell off (prolly because they would have to discount them too much....).

very good point.

IDK, he can't get the bat on the ball right now. He did pick two good pitches to swing at today, a middle-middle hanging slider and middle-middle FB but rolled over to short on both of them, plus took another called strike on the outside corner where a lot of pitchers have been working him. Take a flyer and call up Carpenter. What the hell could it hurt at this point? When all you have are crappy players you have to stop worrying about saving roster spots for them all.

they should dock a team a game in the standings for every position player they use to pitch. That's bullcrap baseball.

Trying to manage an under-performing professional team in the modern era, esp one with a thin roster roster is pretty much a fool's errand. The combination of not being able to send contracted guys out and not having guys to call up even if you could, mean the modern manager has zero leverage. Eventually even an otherwise capable manager gets burned out on his hopeless team and all you can do is bring in someone else.

what if the 'consistent message' is just the wrong message? Just because you are all on the same page doesn't mean you're not reading "War and Peace" instead of the ACME hitter user manual.

1.75 is still pretty cheap money. I doubt they get much traction until 3.5% But, OTOH the Fed is also clearing its balance sheet by something like 100 billion a month in bond sales. If QE had any effect, then QT should make some difference also, so that is working in tandem with interest rate hikes.

Had this set to record. just got to where I could turn it on. Not gonna bother. With Skubal and Faedo having lost their starts we are looking at 3 more losses before another decent shot at a win, which would make it a 7 game losing streak.

that is my view. You basically draft guys in proportion to their numbers on the roster. So that's about 50% pitchers.

the only success Robbie is having is against LHP. You can use him in a platoon with Meadows and/or Baddoo. Victor will probably cool cool off. 200 AB is a lot of time to pull out of a slump in the absence of injury. Cameron was really coming on before he COVID'd. They have to make room to give him some extended run.

Iin college sports? Not likely again in our lifetimes. College sports is on a firm track along the road to perdition.

You'd be assuming good faith on the part of Southern teams for that to pass. Why would they give up their geographical/weather advantage to help northern teams? No reason at all.

but mortgage rates have already discounted the increases also. Mortgages are hitting 6%, the 10 yr Treasury is still only at 3.5%. Typical spread is only 1-1.5%. So the mortgage lenders are already assuming more inflation than bond investors. The paradox is that if the Fed moves aggressively, the yield curve flattens because it reduces future inflation expectation and supports the price (lowers the yield) of longer term bonds. That in turn should keep mortgage rates contained.

the quicker they squelch it, the shallower the recession will be.

The last time the US was suffering serious inflation, the idea of the central bank raising interest rates in response was still considered a controversial new approach. Today it's what everyone expects and has already discounted. I don't see much reason for the Fed to slow walk it. They need to do 100pts.

I think you will. He's played in 6 games since getting back into the lineup at Toledo and has 4 hits and 5 walks for a 346 OBP which I'd take as a decent sign he's seeing the ball better. Hasn't found his power yet though.