gehringer_2

Cleared to start 'baseball activities' but still at least a week/2 to a rehab assignment

I'm telling you that we fans in '68 were NOT surprised Lolich had a good series. I think the difference is that we are taking opposite views on what the '68 league ERAs mean. You seem (If I understand your basic arg) to be saying the league ERA was great because all the hitters sucked so every pitcher should have had a great ERA year. I think it much more highly probable that the hitters were basically the same and enough pitchers (like McLain and Gibson) had relative career years to skew the league average ERA. Since it takes far fewer pitchers having good years than hitters having bad years to get to the same set of ERA+ results, I'm going with the former on pure probability grounds. Thus to me, Lolich was the guy he usually was, and that is backed by his peripherals being some of the best of his career.

yeah - I don't like 'state of mine' law much in general. As Yoda would say, You either did, or did not do.

Are we looking at the same logs? I think Cantor was a little overdramatic. He had exactly three rough outings at the end of July. His ERA was 3.22 on July 15. He got roughed up on the 19th, 24th, 28th, gave up runs in relief on Aug 2 and then was right back on track, not giving up a run in 6 more BP appearance and then going back into the rotation. His ERA for the rest of Aug after the 2nd was 1.83. So clicked immediately is more accurate. So basically he had a rough 2 week. And I'm sure he was POd at being sent to the pen. Interestingly enough, look a little deeper, those games were in three series - a home and home against the Orioles sandwiched around the Senators. Denny got roughed up Jul 20 and 23 in games in the same series. Could the other team deserve a little credit? The Orioles were on their way to being a great team. They came into DET and took 3 of four, the only game we won was one Lolich started (his 1st poor one) and Dobson won in relief. McLain and Wilson also took losses in that series. Then they lost two of three to the Sen (McLain and Lolich) and took two of three against the Orioles in Balt - Lolich with his final bad start there. Another thing to consider is that given poor starts by multiple starters in a short a short stretch it might also have been a bug going around the clubhouse. Of course they all would have been doubly upset because Baltimore was the team behind them. That week was the closest Baltimore got the rest of the way. In '69 the same Baltimore team brought Palmer up for good, picked up Cuellar, and ran away with it, winning 109. I know you don't think Lolich was much of a pitcher, but he was pretty much same pitcher in '68 he usually was. To argue he had an overall off year in total does not match the facts of his peripherals at all.

I'd push back some that Lolich wasn't good in '68. He wasn’t used as much (in fact made 7 relief appearances - which I have to say I don't remember at all) and "only" completed 8 games so Mayo was taking him out of games earlier than later in his career. He was credited with 17 wins but the Tigers won 24 of his starts. So counting totals maybe weren't as high, but his peripherals were mostly quite good. His K rate was the 3nd best of his career and his FIP was 2.99 which was well better than his average FIP of 3.2 while in Det (which discounts his poor last years in SD) and only 0.34 off his career best, his WHIP was third best of his career, hits/9 was the 2nd best of his career. His ERA+ was below 100 -- but 68 was a pretty nutty year for ERA across the leagues. His raw ERA and FIP were better in 68 than 69 despite his 69 ERA+ being 119, so I'd argue it wasn't Lolich's performance that was the difference in ERA+ as much as the league itself being the outlier in '68./ Down the stretch from Aug 1, McLain's ERA was 1.85, Lolich's was 2.39 and in fact in Sept. Mickey's ERA (2.27) matched McLain's (2.29) across their last 6/7 starts. It was not a surprise Mickey pitched well in the Series (of course the 3 CG was), they were 1 and 1A by that time. The surprise was McLain didn't pitch better.

Serious question - you don't think top starting pitchers are as reliable from year to year as top hitters? I'd agree that the risk of losing them to catastrophic injury in a given year is higher, but it seem to me your top pitchers stay on the leader boards performance wise pretty much as consistently as good hitters. Relievers are for sure a different deal.

harder sure, but if it works better isn't that your objective? I'm being facetious of course but I can picture my roster of great hitters growing old and grey in 3rd place waiting for some kind of inter dimensional space/time warp event to deposit a couple of full grown Cy Young candidates in little force field orbs behind the bullpen shelter one day. I just don't think the harmonic convergence of enough winning pitching will ever happen if you don't pursue it pretty hard. Or can afford to buy it.

of course you can't not hit at all. But once Max was gone even that fell apart even though we still had some pretty bats left.

and to come back mechanics of team construction, I have long believed that the marginal market/value of hitters is a much worse value proposition than for pitchers. Or better put, I think you are more likely to win (i.e. get to the playoffs) with the best pitching and only 'good' hitters than with the best hitters and only 'good' pitching. Which is to say I like the Atlanta model.

I was just looking at his 2019 record - he was up and down a lot but started to show the occasional strong outing, the best being a 7IP 0H game and then a couple of 2 and 3 hit starts, but with some clunkers mixed in and not a great overall ERA. Then COVID, then the knife....

But in today's trade/CBA environment I don't think you will ever get the pitchers to put it together if you don't grow your own. In trade/FA you will get mostly over the hill guys unless you can spend like the Yankees or Dodgers, and the Tigers can't. How many teams did we have for how many years with all kinds of bats and the best arm we could bring in was a Billingham or Joe Coleman (who had one good year?). Objectively, 2011-2014 was the best playoff run in Tiger's history and that was keyed by having that core of Verlander, Scherzer and Porcello, and true we didn't draft Max but we got him before anyone knew he would be much of anything so I'm counting him as a 'build around' talent.

the 68 team lead the league in runs and run prevention. But my point was that that offense was together a number of years and never produced a winner except that year when Sparma and Wilson had pretty decent years, Lolich had fine year, McLain went supernova and Hiller was excellent relieving and spot starting all together. Plus you expected good run production at Tigers Stadium. Was leading the league by more an 120 runs scored more or less impressive than by 70 in runs prevented in that ballpark? On the offensive side, Kaline was out half the year and Cash had a down season. 3b, and SS were not strong at the bat and Stanley was not a big stick. Horton, Freehand and Northrup were among league leaders with great seasons and McAulliffe was a good OBP guy.

was it right after they drafted him then that they didn't bring him to the minors? I just remember we expected him to be pitching and they shut him down. I don't remember complaints about his weight but he certainly wasn't the same pitcher. TBH, I suppose weight doesn't bother a lot of pitchers

The Tigers shut him down early after a nice 1st year and he lost the top end of his FB the following season and was not very effective. From then on it always seemed that the question would be could he recover the velocity difference to set up the good slider he always had - then came TJ so he ended up with a bumpy career ride. But he's throwing 95 again, it's not the best FB in the world but he commands it well, and with the slider and change working he should be fine if he stays healthy from here.

Monday. No MiLB games scheduled.

Jake Odorizzi carried off the field at Fenway. He collapsed after taking a step to cover 1st on a grounder.

John Keating's mind has gone bye-bye

Mize and Turnbull in the dugout with the team tonight.

they needed this one because tomorrow is not a favorable match-up.

always need to complete the disclaimer on that: "Unless your name is Mariano Rivera'

Soto living on borrowed time if he can't find his breaking ball. So he is broken and Fulmer is broken, but we get the win anyway.

Soto apparently can't throw a breaking ball.

went to the same well too many times in a row there.

good out but trying to over throw again.

actually, I'd very much like a defensive sub for Willi here.