It's not like Herrin was painting corners. Perez got three good pitches to hit, Even with the miss by the UMP, Jones still swung out of zone to get himself out.
This is true. Any strategy that has better outcomes on average, may not have a higher probability of success in any specific combination of conditions. That's what you pay a manager to figure out.
remember when McKinstry first came to the Tigers and was a dead red FB hitter that couldn't handle anything with spin? The wheel has turned completely - it's the FB he struggles with now.