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gehringer_2

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Everything posted by gehringer_2

  1. Reminds me of when GM was using ‘Eminence Front’ in an ad campaign. The lyric, of course, is that you are being ‘put on’. Perfect accidental truth moment in American advertising!
  2. Other than most kids seeming to have higher resistance to Covid, another piece is that you’d have to guess that kids wear masks even more poorly than adults, but again, that kind of thing is very hard to determine with any accuracy
  3. speaking of retrospective studies on masking - from the CDC today. This study was pre-omicron and based on self reporting - so again, FWIW: reduction in chance of contracting Covid: Cloth mask = 56% surgical mask = 66% N95 mask = 83% https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm?s_cid=mm7106e1_w [cdc.gov]https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm?s_cid=mm7106e1_w [cdc.gov]
  4. yeah - the misinformation and misunderstanding on the mask issue is deep. Cloth masks have *never* stopped virus from passing through them, their major property is to break up your exhalation patterns to reduce the range to which you spread virus around yourself so that other people who are trying to stay a reasonable distance from you have their risk reduced. They protect other people from you - so when worn by all produce and aggregate risk reduction to a population, but still not directly to individuals. OTOH - even with N95s - which can reduce your risk of inhaling someone else's shed virus and can protect you directly, few people who have them wear them properly (i.e. tight!) enough for them to actually do what they are theoretically able to do better than cloth. The fluid mechanics of air flow, particle distribution and filtration are really all outside the expertise of most of the medical establishment - even they have trouble figuring it all out, and good data is very hard to come by because good experimental work is really hard to do or reproduce - you are immediately faced with too many variables to track. The epidemiologists are mostly reduced to waiting for retrospective public studies on mask use, which are also fraught with difficulties. There is a reason that in industrial health science, for all hazardous atmospheres, only true respirators have ever been considered acceptable protection
  5. if this is true, I think it could be definitive. Money trumps emotion even in Putin's world.
  6. this is too harsh Chas - Avila was doing a lot things like bringing in UM kinesiology people and installing pitching analysis equipment up and down the system before Hinch got here. They hired a caretaker in Gardenhire when they were going to be terrible and the players on the roster were not going to be part of the future anyway - they probably couldn't have gotten an AJ Hinch quality guy to take that job if they had tried at that time, and as noted, they might not have gotten Hinch last year either regardless of how well prepped the system was or wasn't if not for his missteps, so I don't see Gardenhire as much of a marker on where Avila was trying to take the team. I will grant everything you want to posit about how good Hinch has been, but if Avila hadn't already put in place the basis for the kinds of tools and direction Hinch wanted to use, he wouldn't have come here.
  7. One caveat - that may not be all counties reporting. For instance Washtenaw Health dept said they had closed until Monday for the 'storm' and they did not post numbers today. Could be someone came in filed something with the State - or maybe not.....
  8. On the positive side, most kids will end up more skeptical/reactionary to what they are preached at about in school than anything else.
  9. yup. While you could argue it in the beginning, each year the idea gets less teneble that Avila and Chris Ilitch are the extensions of Dave Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch instead of two guys who were both looking to get out from under the way their predecessors did things.
  10. About the only positive explanation for that would be that a SS was playing behind all RH pitching. I remember having run down some numbers on a SS a number of years ago whose total chances seemed low but who had faced an inordinate % of LH hitters over the period in question. Seems unlikely in Jeter's case since you assume the Yankees are always looking for LH pitching.
  11. this. The draft order does what it's supposed to do, which is to help cycle teams and the league toward greater parity. If teams are abusing the system find another way to dis-incentivize the behavior instead of throwing out something that actually does what it's supposed to.
  12. The guy is shilling a book and I would hope there is more to it than Kumbaya . But I think he has a point. IIRC, from what I've read an example might be the way Cardozo looked at whether expansion of manufacturers' liability in an industrializing age was as much in the interests of public policy as in any pre-existing case law. So maybe our author is arguing less for some new utopian model than just a return to jurisprudence based more on simpler ideas of common justice and less in the arcania of whatever you can twist the semantics of some piece of old text into. That said, clearly it is up the courts to abide by black letter law and interpret it when its meaning is placed in doubt, but the reality is that at the appellate and SCOTUS level the questions are often more purely ones of policy. McGirt for instance was a case where if the court had said that the interests of overall public policy and justice would not be served by such a radical re-orientation of the political facts on the ground on which generations had relied, and that in the end may not even have served any purpose you could call justice, no-one would have questioned it. That was clearly a case where the court was deciding public/legal policy as much as interpreting the black letter of a treaty. History has simply moved past any possibility of all old Indian treaties being enforced to the letter so the court was not actually seriously bound on that point. They made a policy decision to enforce that one. I think those are the kind of cases where what the members of a court see as the larger purpose of the law can matter.
  13. that's a good question Tater. I do tend to think if that had come out before the hire it would have made them change their plans. One thing that makes me say that is that the Det sports media is pretty captive - once he was 'our guy' they really didn't go after the story that hard. But if it had broken before the hire, they would have been much less inhibited.
  14. LOL -yes. If you are going to use concrete towers you sort of commit yourself to a long process because each section has to cure before doing the next. When you've got 700 ft to go up, you get lots of time to kill for everything else. The economic comparisons are interesting. The Ambassador bridge was built for $23M 1929 dollars, which according to BLS statistics would be $400M today. The Howe bridge will cost $5.7B yet cable stayed construction was chosen because it is less expensive today than a full suspension bridge would be. OTOH, the Howe bridge will be a bigger bridge - 6+ lanes to the Ambassador's 4.
  15. looked like good chance he ended up dead, in which case learning would be limited.....
  16. This guy wants to start a movement.... https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/opinion/us-supreme-court-nomination.html
  17. Bridges can take years - I-280 over the Maumee being a good example. But the fastest bridge project I can think of in recent years was the I35W replacement in Minneapolis, where the new bridge opened 58 weeks after the collapse of the old bridge. This was much bigger bridge and over water so PA should be able to beat that for smaller bridge over land if they tried. Then again the PA bridge maybe gets no Federal funding..... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-35W_Mississippi_River_bridge#Replacement_bridge
  18. MI vax rate is at 65.2% and it appears that no-one else is interested. The bounce in vaccinations that began with the delta surge appears to have run its course.
  19. too many people have no idea how to drive a car at a speed. They are totally dependent on cueing off another car (and apparently refuse to use cruise control). They are the people that are always in the way because they speed up as you approach them and slow down if you try to give them room. I call them 'magnet' drivers. I amuse myself on trips by slowly increasing speed when there is a 'magnet' latched on behind me or even in the next lane in my blindspot, to see how fast they will will go matching my car before they ever look down at their own speedo or otherwise recognize their own speed and suddenly and finally fall off my tail.
  20. how did you get to there from my post? But yes the pipeline is exactly the problem. I'm less optimistic than you that it is still not a 'supply side' problem. Formal discrimination has been over for decades and colleges still compete tooth and nail with one another to find minority students ready for entry and still have poor total minority enrollment despite their best DEI efforts.
  21. It was a perfect storm for Jeter though because it's not like the Yankees had a 3b in waiting that would have been valuable if Jeter and Arod had played 2B and SS, quite the contrary - for a big part of the time they had an all-star 2B in Cano. So better overall to have Cano at 2B than Jeter there and some Joe Doakes at 3rd. Would ARod have maintained his D at SS? Who knows - but seems unlikely he would have for long given his mass. Add in that both Yankee ballparks were HR parks, and as a team, in the end I don't think leaving Jeter at SS ended up costing the Yankees much overall most years. Doesn't mean he wasn't a jerk over it or that he deserves to be considered a great fielding SS, just that he was in a good place for who he was.
  22. Hronek's been terrible - late, slow, soft and has to be the worst passer in the NHL. There was talk he has been hurt -- but whatever, he's not producing. DeKeyser not much better but does show flashes of playing a little more physical - which they need. Leddy looks like he has some decent wheels but has been an overall disappointment - worst +/- on the team.
  23. it was a 'window on his soul' moment, but the truth is ARod probably couldn't/shouldn't have stayed at SS very long either..
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