You know what Casey Mize is thinking: "If you'd given me two more innings you'd have never had gotten to Melton..."
He's probably wrong but you know that's what he is thinking.
It's not like Herrin was painting corners. Perez got three good pitches to hit, Even with the miss by the UMP, Jones still swung out of zone to get himself out.
This is true. Any strategy that has better outcomes on average, may not have a higher probability of success in any specific combination of conditions. That's what you pay a manager to figure out.