gehringer_2

Say 16 teams, 7 years, that's about 62.5 million per team/yr. Given that by the end of 7 years the current inflation cycle will have cut the real value of those dollars by something like 20-40%, that would be ~$40M per team by the end. They may be desperate to get out of it by then!

However, the 'Retread' issue is not comparable between field managers and general managers. As has been beaten to death for years here, a field manager has very limited upward influence on his team's win total. A bad manager can make it worse, but even the best is completely constrained on the upside but the absolute talent level of his players, and he has little or no control over that. So many of field managers may be perfectly capable of winning but never do until they fall into the right situation. A general manager is directly responsible for that talent level so team performance is much more directly his responsibility. I suppose a bad manager can mishandle a good team that a GM assembles, but in that case firing that bad manager is still part of that GM's job. The only thing that limits a GM is stingy ownership, but that is often pretty obvious to see from the outside. In fact, those are probably some of the guys you want to be looking at, guys from orgs with poor resourcing who show promise of being able to do more if they had better resourcing. Tl,DR version. I mind a 'retread' manager who may not have won a lot less than a 'retread' GM. The 'win' burden for a GM hire is higher.

right - a trend shown by two polls with the same methodology is more like to be real than the absolute value of the results. But trends are usually movement in the undecided blocks, so even trends can be a bit deceiving if you don't have a good handle on the number of true undecideds left. If you run out of undecideds before you catch the other guy your trend was for naught!

For Hens tonight Torkelson 2/4 1k, Kreidler 1/4 2B, Wentz 5IP 3H 0R 5K

and he's finally hitting a few hard.

Norris 5 IP, 1 run. Feels like 2015.

Strike all over the map tonight. Riley rung up on a terrible call.

it's been a struggle for Norris but he's making some good pitches when he's needed to.

Ump misses a perfect 1st pitch of the inning

did you hear he had 6 K in his 1st 8 AB?

it's true, as many elections are lost as won.

he didn't even have the story right, Francona got thrown out over the Straw K in the 9th not the Baez play. Geez. The call this professional broadcasting in Det?

Akil with one of his better recent swings there.

Scrappy Daniel as well, as he escapes bases loaded 1 out with no runs.

Wild Daniel in the house tonight.

yeah, there are no moral victories when it comes to elections.

I guess it was good that it was not the ACL again. The report was pretty vague, on the one hand they said it was 'exploratory' but they obviously did some kind of repair or clean up as well.

LOL - yeah - Just because you are totally transparent does not mean you are doing it on purpose by actually being truthful.

yup. I don't see any reason to have confidence the pollsters have figured out their sampling resistance issues between left and right until they actual start hitting the Dem numbers a little closer to election results. It's not so bad with national numbers but at state and congressional district level blue polling bias has been significant.

In a three way race would she pull more votes from Trump or the Dem? Depends where she positioned herself but theses things can end up worse for the left side than the prior predictions. 68, 80, 2016 elections with 3rd parties went GOP, Clinton did win with Perot in the race.

It would have been nice to see, but we are 6 yrs out from Trump capturing the GOP nomination and the truth is that the Cheneys and Kasiches are no closer having a movement of their own than they were then so I’ve stopped holding my breath waiting. They are as Jonathan Schoop to me now.

You can’t get a national party off the ground on Lincoln project level $$. The big GOP $$ are still going to the Trump GOP and Dem $$ are still going to Dems. It is what it is.

LC’s problem going forward is she has no money behind her. She’s not wealthy enough to be her own media, and the anti-Trump GOP donor base hasn’t shown any willingness to spent big enough to seriously blow up the party

The only question about that poll is which side had more liars. That would be a substantially bigger turnout (~74%) than any in the history of the republic by roughly 7%. Then again, at 67%, 2020 was 5% bigger than the next closest turnout, which was 62.5% in 2008.

It's been some years but when I used to travel on the PA turnpike fairly often it was always zipper merge.