gehringer_2

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My recollection is that 5/100K was an action level the epidemiologists were working with early on - that certainly has probably changed given that the bug has ended up more infectious than originally estimated. But OTOH, the original concept here being that if you can contact trace all the positives, you can keep it in check, and so the stable infection level really has more to do with how much public health resource you have to do contract tracing rather than any particular property of the infection and that is what I believe that 5/100k number was based on. Now in practice Covid has overrun anyone's capability to do effective contact tracing so that has not been part of the conversation for months, but that doesn't mean the concept wasn't correct. As this comes under control there should be levels at which things like contact tracing (or whatever) that were not feasible at high infection rates come back into play, and those considerations should allow the Epids to come up with action levels to relax. But the larger point is that it's not all just black magic and numbers pulled from a hat. The estimates may not always turn out to be correct but they do have non-arbitrary reasons for choosing them.

Another obsolete concept in the age of the cell phone camera and internet.

but there is still an even more general point. We don't pay our pro-athletes to be great people, we pay them to be great athletes. You could pick any day of the weak and find reasons to pick out athletes and dump on them for not being saints. That's just the way it is. We seem to have enough trouble holding those accountable who actually do the bad stuff. Spending a lot of energy on judging other peoples reactions about it seems unproductive.

I think I would leave the letters there but put cross-outs over them. Isn't remember and repudiate better than just erase and forget?

one thing they did guess wrong about initially is that the level of vaccination required to stop transmission is higher than 70%, it's over 80%. But you are correct that in highly vaccinated populations, the same case rate will represent a much lower incidence of serious desease, so the concern over case rates is not comparable when comparing Denmark to Michigan's Cass Co. (vax rate <45%). But in the US vaccination rates in too many places are still too low to be sanguine about case(=positive test) rates.

then again, the Tigers are rehabbing Franklin Perez.....

Yeah - it's a beyond unfair that we expect everyone to have professional media relations skills. Toews is a hockey player, it's dumb to expect him to be a font of finely tuned current cultural wisdom. But you hit the nail on the head - you have to know when to just make a perfunctory statement without saying anything.

It's not the what - it's the how. We've known for a year now that we can kill this thing by masking and vaccinating people and here we are in the worlds supposedly premier 1st world country with 40% of the population unvaccinated. It's not true that the it's the virus that is so clever that we can't stop it, it's that people refuse to be as 'clever' as they should already know how to be. I'm on a campus full of "irresponsible" 18-22 yr olds and we have a 5/100k infection rate while surrounded by a state with a 40/100k rate, because we are simply doing the things we all already know how to do, which is mostly getting vaccinated, but also intelligent use of masks. We can control it, we simply lack the discipline. That is not an epidemiological problem, it's a cultural one. Case rates throughout MI exactly track vaccination rates. The idea that it's still the virus that is the problem is BS.

things getting a little edgy?

Hiring him!

Brian Ellerbe on line 1.....

I've always loved the 'demotivator' posters. I used to have the 'Teamwork' one with the snowball rolling down the hill- "a few flakes can start an avalanche of destruction." (Interestingly, when I clicked that link on a Mac it left the Apple News app (which I had removed) on my desktop......😡)

LeCarre was pleased enough to have been catapulted to literary stardom by TSTCIFTC, but with the heroic Richard Burton movie and all, in the end he was not pleased that his cynicism about the spy world was being lost, so his next novel was a total downer called "the Looking Glass War." Needless to say 60's Hollywood was less interested! Of course the Brits did their own completely forgettable film which wasted a rather promising cast.

I spent most of my working life in hazardous environments. Safety is culture, and the enforcement of the culture depends completely on the immediate local management. In the end the people closest to the accident will take the fall for it, but a movie set is the director's world and the ultimate and absolute responsibility is his for allowing a hazard tolerant culture to live on his sets.

"Deserve" has little to do with whether he keeps his job. The question is does Michigan fan buy out the stadium in '22 based on 10-2? I would guess...probably yes. That's all Harbaugh needs. (and it doesn't hurt UM football marketing that the Lions are terrible either!)

Slick - but isn't it illegal to be in motion toward the LOS before the snap?

indeed, neither of these teams has top 10 talent or exection. So in the end it comes down to the fact that my head says Tucker has shown actual coaching competence in turning MSU around, while despite a lot of new staff, the guy in charge in A^2 is still Harbaugh and Harbaugh is still a coach whose teams find ways to lose games that matter.

in the overall universe of things Morton has already suffered, a fractured Fibula is small potatoes. 😉 If there are no complications he should be good to go - for the 'stros - in 4mo.

I had close to no reaction. Pretty minor soreness in the arm the 1st night, but that was actually more than I had for either of the 1st two so go figure.

The Caps aren't the youngest team in the league anymore so maybe the Wings had a bit of a team speed advantage in general. Raymond maybe not so much with the straight line speed of an Athanasiou, but he has some quickness to go with what speed he has to where he had been able to elude defenders.

I think that '89 draft still stands alone as the only draft where 4 of the 1st 5 picks are all in the HOF. And the one miss was Tony Mandarich - LOL.

have to guess he's trying to get a settlement number on the interest. In the absence of a criminal charge and penalties, 200K interest on 1million in 4 yrs at recent interest rates is borderline profiteering by the state.

watching the replay of the OT, maybe 15 seconds before goal, Larkin and Seider are along the right side boards in the Caps end and the puck is getting away, Seider - going south, bats the knee high puck out of the air back north over to Larkin, who gains possession and reverses the puck back to center ice which sets up the scoring rush. Just a tiny play, but an example of great vision, reflex, touch, and split second decision making.

Wings got their 9th point in their 16th game last season. In their 7th this season.