I've got the live fangraphs odds in a spreadsheet... Will let you know the moment the Tigers are favored to win the division. It's currently Cleveland 52.6%.
I... actually do.
Because the schedule works out that Skubal can pitch game 1 of the ALWCS, followed by games 2 and 5 of the ALDS. Weather can foil that plan though.
It looks like home field advantage is worth a 3% bump in win probability per game. So you are increasing your chance of winning those games by that amount if you even win, but decreasing it by going with Skubal over bullpen day in one of the three games.
I think the math for winning says save Skubal. The math for revenue says try to win the division.
If you have an organization that relies on teamwork and personalities maximizing performance, the slightest bit of distrust could permeate.
I also suspect 6 all star bids also may have added some ego to the mix that wasn't there.
Final theory: the league caught up to some of the pitch design things that Fetter and Co. had been doing.
Part of me wonders what affect that Athletic report has had on this collapse. I know Menzin was the only baseball ops person, but maybe there was some additional fallout and strife behind the scenes after that article that has affected enough things on the periphery to add to the spiral.
I suspect Heuer was injured but wasn't logged in the Toledo transactions as several transactions haven't been. Can't outright an injured player, so released it is. Not sure they turn around and pick him back up, since free agency looks anyways.