Edman85

I've lost sleep over this exact fact.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/2024/10/24/unf-polls-finds-tighter-race-for-u-s-rep-aaron-bean-re-election-bid/75816073007/ Lends some credence to Florida maybe being in play...

Misinformation like this plays into his hands.

Blue checkmarks on twitter in the Elon era are paid for clicks, not for truth.

Pooring cold water as I am wont to do, beware coming to overly positive conclusions here. The hitting environment at AFL is extreme before factoring in that teams are largely not sending their top pitchers.

Agree, but i think that uncertainty is why they are showing 50/50

It's also possible Harris is trying to pick off Texas or Florida on a hail mary in case there is systematic rust belt polling error in Trump's favor for the third time.

Dodging the NFL on Sunday

Silver's polling average. There is certainly convergence. This is 2020 for comparison:

With Nevada trending toward Trump, a 270-268 Harris win is in play... Which means we are a faithless elector away from chaos.

Silver had Obama >90 % in 2012. I can't find his precise model and the polling input, but I can guarantee this year and 2012 aren't similar from a polling standpoint.

That was indeed good. I listened this morning. Which brings me to this tangential point. The NYTimes Audio paywall has not seemed to hit Pocketcasts yet.

I highly recommend following Jason Garcia and his free newsletter/podcast if Florida corruption is something that tickles your fury fancy.

I have. Deaf ears. Jason Martinez, roster resource, got back and fixed the fangraphs page after he confirmed they were under 3.

I also caution against using Party ID for anything in a closed primary state where party identification can be bourn out of pragmatism more than anything. I change mine every primary season just so I can vote in the most competitive elections.

And then a **** load right wingers from blue states moved here in 2021-2022 to get away from COVID restrictions and Desantis increased his margin of victory from 0.4% in 2018 to 19% in 2022. And the standard caveats about using early voter party ID to extrapolate that you have routinely dismissed apply.

I'd be more inclined to subscribe to MLBTR if they calculated Baddoo and Lange's service time right 😄 Somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but attention to detail is important.

Also, if they have some kind of table set up handing out paper, joke's on them. It's off-and-on 30-40 mph winds here today.

There were some people setting up some kinda Trump stand in the Publix parking lot this morning. I yelled at them at the top of my lungs "TRUMP IS A FASCIST." It didn't accomplish anything, but it was cathartic.

Is that Lunetta's (Director, Minor League Operations) role? Or is it a backfill for Garko after his promotion?

You realize if a right leaning poll is added to the mix they adjust, right? Like if they have Rasmussen +3R and Rasmussen comes in +5R, the model adjusts the input to +2R and reduces its overall weighting on top of that.

Well, I was cherry picking back, looking at two high quality pollsters though. Here's Silver's page for recent Wisconsin polls. This doesn't look like a "rest easy" situation. Noting that the right wing polls are filtered out. He actually ran a sim this week without those polls which showed better for Trump, showing that the partisan adjustment is doing its job.

The models that have Trump as a very slight favorite at the moment have partisan lean adjustments for polls an devalue low quality polls. Quinnipiac and Emerson College had Trump up in Wisconsin this week. Emerson had Trump up in Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac had Trump up 3.5 in Michigan. Quinnipiac had Trump up 6 in Georgia. I could keep going. It's not just right wing polls. My theory is the misinformation on hurricanes is gaining traction, which is a little ****ed up if so.

I'm troubled by the polls the last week or two. Despite the cherry picked ones here telling another story.

As somebody with a family member going through dementia it was triggering when the right was flippantly playing the dementia card earlier this year, making jokes about it. Same is true of the left right now.