Edman85

Any questions? 41(a)(3) covers him. He can be a sub for SGL. I did not know until earlier about 41(a)(2)'s caveat about players on the IL only being replaceable if their time on the IL has expired. I think there might be a workaround there (You can just say White is injured and ineligible for the next round and replace him).

Baseball America put out a short podcast this afternoon on Jobe. They were gushing about him, but at the end, the host (Scott Braun, so not one of the two BA guys on the call) went on and on about how this has been a disappointing year for the Tigers but this is a positive step for next year. Why do I get the feeling that segment has been in the can since August?

Au contraire. He can, as an injury replacement.

I'd check out the CBA. The answer is probably in there.

I tweeted this yesterday but I noticed Meadows doesn't take a direct route to the ball when robbing homers. He does what Olympic high jumpers do and take a cercuitous route to allow themselves to jump higher. What I am curious about is if this is something he has always done, or if it is something that has been coached into him, perhaps after analysis by the nascent biomechanics department.

Big day tomorrow. When the numbers are crunched, the Tigers playoff odds should exceed Trump's presidential chances in all the models.

Their transaction source is retrosheet, which doesn't cover the up/down.

I'm able to do it, but only for the Tigers, and it is complicated. You can use transaction logs, but they are sometimes incomplete and don't necessarily let you know if the transaction happened before or after the game. Then you get the <20 day rule, grievances, the September 1 rule, the 3-days after Labor Day rule, etc. It's nice that places like BP, FG, and Cots report it to the January number so you don't have to unbake their assumptions. The guy on twitter I found this year (Lee calls him Pirates Edman) is trying it for every player, importing transactions daily. I want to tackle that if I can trust the transactions log, and am in the process of transitioning my sheet from Google to Excel to maybe up the scraping capability.

I found the caveats and assumptions in their future payroll footnotes.

Service time officially gets set at the end of the year and it is a little easier to calculate age daily than service time.

I mean, they are probably guessing that because he was 2+ last year he would be, but he doesn't have 3 years and he didn't have 86 days of service this year. Therefore, he's not arb eligible. The free agent date is wrong too. Unless he grieves his demotion like Turnbull did and gets his service time.

He's not arb eligible.

Shades of the really weird Aaron Bummer trade. You would need to find a team bereft of 40 man roster talent.

Traditionally, maybe, but not necessarily in the Trump era.

I feel like looking at turnout numbers is akin to exit polls. Largely worthless.

He has the right to just say no, you aren't sending me to the minors. That is different from opting for free agency. He can just say no. Also, if an MLB player is released (Not outrighted to become a minor league free agent, not non-tendered, released) after August 31, they can't be re-signed and added to the active roster until May 15. So no Spring Invite.

I had this thought earlier. Good to see it independently confirmed.

I think it's a remnant of their early season stabs and rounding up to 1 IP.

I almost think some teams don't mind that and may leave a player exposed they don't want who may get taken just so they can get the free $100,000 drafting fee for a player they didn't want in the first place.

Here's the projected playing time for pitchers the rest of the way that the system is based on. Obviously if you are doing this for all 30 teams, you have to take some short cuts, and you are trying to predict injury risk, etc. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=rfangraphsdc&lg=&team=6

Regarding protecting Workman, you can only protect 40 players, and is he one of the 40 best eligible? You have 43 after 60-Day activations, and with the late surge, there aren't that many easy cut candidates. Shelby Miller is the only free agent, and even he has an option. You can probably lop White, Madris, Vilade, and Baddoo and that gets you to 39, 38 if you decline Miller's option. Then you are talking about Kreidler, and are you going to protect Workman over Kreidler? There are guys like Wilmer Flores who could get dropped from the 40 this offseason too, but you don't have that many easy drops, and there are higher priority guys to protect, including several just acquired at the deadline. Edit: I forgot Sammons, who seems to be an obvious drop candidate. McKinstry has probably played his way onto next year's team, much to people's chagrin. Maybe you pull the rip cord on Baez after the season.

They are based on playing time projections, but to my knowledge they do not make an attempt to figure out opposing platoon splits. They may bake those into playing time projections though? Like if the Tigers were projected to face 10 straight lefties, I think their system would weight Andy Ibanez a bit more than Jace Jung, or at least it should. What I like about projection system based systems is it does factor in who is playing. Odds change (slightly) at the trade deadline. Odds change when a star player gets hurt. They are my go to.

What's wrong with the method that uses projection systems? FYI, in case you didn't bake this in, the projection systems do update over the course of the year. I'm assuming it's some kind of regression being done to bake in current season performance with preseason expectation (which likely has some kind of certainty baked in to tell it how much to factor in this year's performance)

Morning consult has a D lean. Cherry picking can distort.