Edman85

No matter how much he rakes at Toledo, don't be surprised in Keith is held down until he can maintain rookie eligibility. Unless the Tigers somehow find themselves in contention before then, that is. Reminder, he will need to be under 45 days of active (i.e. non-IL) service time and under 130 at-bats at season's end to be eligible for prospect lists and thus be able to net the Tigers a draft pick if he gets any award voting early on in his career. We are talking late August at the earliest. Patience...

Regarding incentives, I honestly don't know how they work when somebody is traded mid-season. My guess is the team the player plays for when they hit the incentives are on the hook. So in the case of Candelario, the Nationals have already paid $400K of his potential $1M in performance incentives. If traded today, the other team would be on the hook for the other $600K if he hits them.

Incentives are part of it. I was just leaving them out to simplify the math.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/30/biden-student-loan-forgiveness-supreme-court/

Replacement level is general and WAR is a very broad brush. It is clear the replacement level that Lorenzen was performing over was much lower than the leaguewide level given Toledo's rotation and the preference for "Bullpen Day"

Also, am I crazy for saying Lorenzen has been more valuable than Jeimer this year? And likely should fetch more in the trade market if his arm stays in tact another few weeks.

There are diminishing returns, if not (what's the term, negative returns?) going too heavily in the free agent market. It's not just money. We are seeing it with the Miguel Cabrera anvil the last five years. Imagine that times 5-10.

Very true, but in the aggregate if one team in need of a 3B is put over the tax by Candelario, his value decreases because of his salary, even if the penalty is small. That is the point I wanted to make.

What if Candelario was a bit of a malcontent who was interfering with the development of players? Interfering with instruction and casting doubt on the regime's development methods. Bringing him around was only going to hinder the rebuild. I'm not saying that is true, but that's the type of stuff we don't know.

Jeimer making $5M (plus incentives, but I'll ignore them for this point) versus $7M. Let's say the trade is now, at the mid-season point to make the math easy. A team picking up $5M Jeimer adds roughly $2.5M to their CBT bill. A team picking up $7M Jeimer adds roughly $3.5M to their CBT bill. Let's say that the team acquiring has $3M left under the cap... a bit too precise for practicality based on the approximations on the margins with benefits and back-end roster machinations... but bear with me. The team picking up $3.5M Jeimer would go over the tax. Yes, the tax is only 20% of $500,000 (assuming they are a first time payer), or $100,000: chump change. But... if they are trying to reset their tax liability, that could set them back. If they want to sign a QO free agent this upcoming offseason, it will cost extra draft picks. If they are losing a free agent this offseason, they will get a 4th rounder instead of a 1st or 2nd rounder in compensation. If they sign a QO free agent, they are also set to lose $1M instead of $500K from their international bonus pool. Remember a lot of those deals are agreed to ahead of time, so the extra money lost their could wreck their entire international signing class. That immediately prior paragraph is why teams want to stay under. It's not just money. And that is why every little bit of salary could potentially matter in deadline deals.

The Supreme Court, by and large, is sending stuff back to the states and empowering those legislatures. Dobbs, in particular... Those legislatures have extreme Republican advantages, in part due to proactive gerrymandering, and in part because Dems just don't try.

No, but in terms of trade value, the teams buying right now are.

Rounding error on a big league financial sheet until you are up against the CBT and you are suddenly a bit more restricted in free agency if you go over. Yes, such a small overage is also on the margins tax-wise, but it is the other penalties that kick in that I do think teams are trying to avaoid.

You can re-sign him after non-tendering, but obviously it takes two to tango in that regard. As a 38-year old single person, I empathize more and more with teams when I see fanbases throw daggers at them for not unilaterally signing players. Reminds me of thanksgiving.

Also, if people paid as much attention on mobilizing for state legislature elections as they did complaining about the Supreme Court every June, a lot of this would be moot.

Isn't denying a marginal student college admission actually doing them somewhat of a favor since they are the ones most likely to be swimming in debt afterward? Less because they grow up poor, but more because they seem more likely to not make the grade and be left with tuition bills without a degree to show for it.

Candelario is making about 2 million less than he would have with the Tigers through arbitration. Yeah, not our money, but it is worth noting that would have an effect on his trade value now vs. if he would have been tendered.

All the more reason for him to play there in Toledo then...

Why is it stubborn and stupid? This is being very overblown.

I want to add to this having attended a few GCL games. It is not only the pitching variability but fielding as well. Routine grounders can easily become singles if the wrong guy is playing second base. And this is very common.

Yep, I still stand by my fears past year's injury could be a precursor.

Nope, a precursor. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29898372/

Not a surprise... Flexor Tendon tends to be a precursor, and he had some issues returning.

What are today's roster moves? I am imagining Boyd to the IL to clear the way for Manning, but which IL? How do they clear room on the 40 for Manning? Is Vest IL'ed, and if so who replaces him? If it is Brieske or Wingenter, how do they clear room on the 40 there? Could they get creative and bring somebody like Lipcius or Solak up and DFA Schoop?

(Grabs boxing mits and heads to Ferndale)