I thought it was interesting that the Dem LG / AG are running ahead of their R Challengers and ahead of TMac by 3-5 points in that WaPo poll. Leads me to believe that at least some of his struggles are self-inflicted.
Environment is certainly part of it (economy isn't doing well, Biden's approvals are down, inflation, etc.), but TMac has really run a shitty campaign. I think, as a Dem, you have to play the Trump card, but I think he's done way too much of it at the expense of the fact that he actually has a relatively good record to run on as a former Governor.