I've mentioned this a number of times, but incumbent Presidents tend to overreach and the electorate tends to react thermostatically against that overreach. To that point, it isn't just about the 200k deciders... People change their minds or they may not even show up
The Senate map is tough in 2026 (and structurally is tough for Ds in general), but with a 2 seat majority currently, I would honestly be shocked if the Rs held the House in 2026.