I don’t think the Tigers necessarily low-balled Skubal with an offer of $19MM. They might have considered $19.8MM out of respect for Skubal’s accomplishments, a number that would have made him the highest arb award to a pitcher to date no matter what. But it’s not as though they truly low-balled him with a number under $15MM or something. The Skubal ask of $32MM is way, way more out of line versus precedent than the Tigers’ number.
I kind of doubt they informally discussed beforehand what they would offer, and assuming they did not, I could see the Tigers thinking we’ll offer $19, they’ll ask for $25 or so, we won’t mind losing that, it’ll be fine. Instead, we have this, and all the narrative attended to it.
I understand the Harris regime is a file-and-trial regime, but I don’t think that necessarily means they can’t negotiate a mid-point number. I think it’s possible the Skubal camp would be nervous enough about a $19 award that they would accept a $26 or $27 settlement. A truism of negotiation is that literally everything that goes before it factors into the outcome, so it’s reasonable to assume that any long-term deal Skubal signs would be a lot higher if he made $26MM this year than if he made $19MM. That would be incentive enough for him to accept a midpoint settlement.