chasfh

The season is barely one-sixth over, but I think we can all agree that what Zach McKinstry is doing this season so far is nothing short of amazing. He qualified for a batting title his first and only time so far in his third big league season and ended up with 1.1 fWAR (Fangraphs). He was reduced to super utility status last season, his fourth, yet he still matched that 1.1 WAR. He is an everyday player once again, but already, he has 1.3 WAR so far. Just how unprecedented would his season be if he somehow maintained this pace? Well, simple math tells us that Zach would end up with 7.8 WAR. I don't think anyone reasonably hopes that could happen, let alone expects it, and probably he himself least of all. But he doesn't have to end up with WAR that high to still have a relatively historic performance. Here's what I mean: This is Zach McKnistry's fifth season. His prior high WAR is 1.1. How high would his WAR have to be to set a record for fifth-season WAR that's the highest versus his high WAR from the previous four seasons? The current record holder is Tommie Agee. His highest WAR in his first four seasons was 0.0. His fifth season WAR was 6.4. That's a difference of ... (checks math) ... +6.4. The next two highest are Darin Erstad, who had a +5.9 WAR bump in his third season (8.7 vs previous high of 2.8), and then our old buddy Cecil Fielder with a +5.8 bump (6.5 vs previous high of 0.7). So if Zach could end up with 7.8 WAR, he would have a fifth season bump of +6.7, which would give him the record. But wait: there's something else. When Agee got his fifth season bump, he was only 23 years old, so he was still heading toward his peak—plus, he was a fifth-season rookie that year. When Erstad and Cecil had their fifth season bumps, they were both 26. That age puts them solidly in the middle of their peaks. Zach is 30 this year—in fact, he turns 30 tomorrow. (Happy birthday, Zach McKinstry!) That's, like, practically a whole generation older than those other guys were, and well past a player's peak. Guys who are 30 don't just turn it up a big notch like that. It's basically unprecedented. So, then, what is the record for fifth-season bump for someone who's 30? Good question. And here's your answer: Ed Lennox and Ducky Holmes. Yeah, I don't know who they are, either. But Ed Lennox had 5.5 WAR in his age 30 season, his fifth season, and the best he'd had before that was 2.8. And Ducky (lol) clocked in at 3.7 WAR in his age-30 fifth season, versus his previous career high of 1.1. Each of these is +2.6 (rounded). But the biggest bump for any over-30 player was Cy Seymour, a legitimately very good player who had 8.7 WAR season at age 32, versus a previous high of 4.6. That's a fifth-season bump of +4.1. But here's the thing about those guys: they were all birth-of-baseball-era players. Cy's age 32 season came in 1905. Ducky's age 30 year was 1899, when there was only one 12-team league. And Lennox's age 30 season was in 1914—in the Federal League. The Federal League?! Was that even a major league? I mean, yeah, technically it is was, but ... I don't know. You tell me. But even including the National League guys, they all played during an era when society was not geared to funneling all the best potential baseball talent into the majors. A lot of the best players actually toiled in the minors, like the Pacific League and the American Association. Aggregating all the best players into one league was a hit-and-miss proposition back then, meaning the talent level they were playing against was probably not even the best in the country that it could be. So it would have been far more likely that a guy who's 30, or 32, could have his best season at that age, and by a long shot, in a way you just don't see today. So here's the bottom line: If Zach McKinstry can manage to end up with a 3.8 WAR or better, he will have the highest age-30 fifth-season bump in history. And if he can manage to end up with 5.3 WAR, it will be the the greatest ever fifth-season bump for any player age 30 or over in history. And he will have done so in much playing in tougher circumstances against highly-optimized competition that the other three age 30-plus players did not experience. Oh, and by the way: How's Carlos Guzman doing these days?

I agree with you on this, and to be clear, the question I posed wasn't about getting a rental only. It was, which of the five Top 100s in our minors would we give up for an established major leaguer who gives us a much better chance of winning this year? And the Orioles front office decided, none of them. And look what they got then, and where they are now. It's all about the willingness to give up two birds in the bush in exchange for one bird in the hand. I'm with with you on wanting to get an All-Star caliber third baseman, but it looks like we might have one already, at least at the moment. Maybe all we have to do is get a solid outfielder back, like Vierling, or a healthier Carpenter—or what the hell, let's take a big swing and say Parker—and then we can long term MVPKinstry at third , at least for the year?

The adviser, Buria, worked for Austin during the Biden administration as well. The story says DoD recommends the use of Signal by “highly targeted individual” for personal communication from within the Pentagon, where personal cell phones are not permitted, but that Signal is not intended for transmitting military intelligence. It also said Signal was set up on a computer in his office, which is unusual, and that the computer was a second computer, which is also unusual. Either way, apparently, Hegseth has no interest in compartmentalizing.

And they’re seriously thinking of putting a team in Salt Lake, too. They sit at 4,300 feet. That’ll be fun, too.

Been there!

The worst case scenario would be even worse than that—remember how the ‘84 team went to Seattle on top of baseball history at 35-5, and then got swept by the 20-24 Mariners? That started a 4-8 skein that “dropped” us to 39-13, rendering us a mere .750 team. Horrors! 😉 But yes, your scenario is exactly what I landed on as the minimum acceptable result of the western trip would be.

And now you know how the Orioles front office felt last year.

I can't seriously entertain the idea that playing extra innings and playing without gloves are even close to being equivalently stupid.

On the up side ...

My god, Maeda somehow preserved the shutout. But he's not happy with his outing, and everyone can see why. I feel so bad for the guy. His wife must be in tears for him. It's so sad. This might be the end for him. If so, then best of luck to him back in Japan.

Tork is making such good plays at first base these days that I gotta wonder how much of it is pure confidence carrying over from the plate.

GarbageTime-san!

Got a second whole inning from Guenther and he is at 24 pitches. Last year, 24 pitches in a big league outing was his max, but he threw over 24 in several outings in the minors last year. He threw 37 and 40 in back to back outings last August. So he probably he enough left in his tank to come back out to start a third inning.

We're getting close to Maeda time! But still—starting the eighth with Guenther would probably still be a good idea.

OK, so Guenther got through the seventh in eleven pitches. I think he could come back out for the eighth with Lee up and throwing. Again, would love to put up a three- or four-spot and get Maeda in.

Good news, got another run. Bad news, Sweeney is starting to suck a lot more in every aspect of his game.

Great, that's one run.

Man, Laureano sure did make that one close at third on McKinstry.

MVPKinstry!

Four hits, no runs, eleven strikeouts and no walks on 91 pitches through six. He's got to come out for the seventh, right? Who do we have that's available, besides Maeda? Guenther again? Chase Lee again? They are still optionable and we need the guys we won't be optioning to get a breather after yesterday, right? I think he comes out in the seventh to see if he can get three quick outs. Tell you what, though: I'd like to put up another four or five runs here so we can get GarbageTime-san into the game to eat up some outs.

We got a little lucky on that Baez tag up from first to second on the flyout to right. If the throw were on the bag, he was doubled off by a mile. But it wasn't, because the Tigers' new calculation is that in the end, we will net more bases and runs being very aggressive on the bases than by being moderate and advancing only on sure things—that by putting pressure on the defense, we will gain more bases than lose outs. And it worked this time, because we got another run out of it. I like this new strategy, and I hope I'm cognizant enough to remember that I like it when it inevitably happens that it looks like we took a stupid chance and made an out or even lost a game because of the aggressiveness.

We are not long—who knows, maybe days—from finally hearing from the administration that they give less than a s*** about approval ratings and they're gonna do anything they want on behalf of "the American people"..

Glad I don't have to listen to this non-baseball interview during the game, but sad that I have to see it take over my TV completely in between pitches, and share the screen during pitches. Did they have any in-inning interviews during yesterday's game that Dan called? I didn't see it all.

Javy Baez paying a lot more dividends at the plate this year!

We did hit the ball pretty hard off Kremer that first inning, so, good sign.