I think the complete opposite: Trump would have started Trump Media which, on the strength of the argument that the 2016 election was stolen from you good conservatives, would have catapulted it to the #1 position among right-wing media, which would have led Republican legislatures to audit the election and pass restrictive voting laws, which would have led to Trump crowing victoriously in his rallies, which would have led to his nomination in 2020, which would have led to his election that year based on two issues: The Big Lie, and the Hillary Administration's to keep twenty thousand people from dying of the Kung Flu. And he would be president right now.
Or perhaps Trump would have faded quietly into the background, shrinking violet that he is. Equally likely ...