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All I did was share a link to an article showing that dozens of famous people apparently know the exact same person as you.

Here's the thing I never hear anyone talk about at all and it's just mind-boggling to me: the recent inflation trend is nothing like 6% or 7%! Every month when these numbers come out, we hear what inflation is versus 12 months ago. Half a year ago it was over +9%; as recently as September it was still over +8%; last month it was something like +7.1%; now this month it's +6.5%. But the numbers always get reported in this flat fact kind of way: "The new inflation numbers have just come out and inflation is now at 6.5%." It gives the impression that inflation is going up at an inexorable rate of +6.5% annually month after month after month, as though prices are rising roughly half a point each month. It's like, oh, man, will inflation ever stop? Damn you, Joe Biden! But what they never seem to highlight is how much inflation has changed just in the last few months. They might mention the month-over-month number in passing but they rarely highlight it with its own paragraph and, crucially, they never add it to the other recent single month numbers to create a 3-month or 6-month or similar inflation figure. Here what I mean: In December the CPI-U actually went down by -0.31%, Last month it was -0.10%. For the four months prior to that they were +0.41%, +0.22%, -0.04%, and +0.01%. It was +1.37% for just June, so June to July seems to have been some kind of turning point. When we look at the change in CPI for just the last six-month period, meaning December (296.8) versus June (296.3), the totally change was a little more than +0.16%. That projects out to a 12-month inflation rate of +0.33%. That's basically flat inflation for six months. That is decidedly less than the 6.5% for this December over last December. That +6.5% is a real number, sure, but it also misrepresents what the inflation trend has been for six solid months, which is also a real number of +0.3%. Why don't we see anything along those lines when we read inflation stories every second Thursday of a month? Who knows? Maybe it's some kind of political thing. Or maybe they think Joe and Jane Typical won't understand what that means. I'm not interested in contemplating that for this post. But the fact of the matter is that the trend of inflation over the past six months is basically flat, not +6.5%, and nothing in the near future suggests that it's going to shoot back up to that number. All indications are by the time we get to this June, the number will probably be two-something, or perhaps one-something, or maybe even sub-one. Folks can dismiss this whole idea and pretend inflation is still going up at an inexorable 6.5% annual rate month after month after month if they want to, but I have no interest in engaging anyone who's itching to gainsay me about this. I also don't want to debate the reported CPI versus the so-called shadow rate which, if we could look at those month by month, we would also find is lower June to December in the same way the CPI index is. All I will say at this point is that, to my way of thinking, those CDs that online banks are offering at 4+% right now are looking mighty tempting. If we want one, we better move fast, because at some point soon, those rates going back down fast.

Jeff Beck and the Yardbirds' Shapes of Things on the Springboard label was literally the first LP I ever bought with my own money. I had owned 45s before, but never my own LP. I was still at St. Anne Elementary, so this was probably sixth or seventh grade—so, maybe 1973, possibly early 1974? I bought the album at the Cunningham Drugs at Tech Plaza in Warren for, probably, $1.99 or $2.99, because it was a cheap cutout. They had a whole rack for cutout records there. (I also bought Grateful Dead's Wake of the Flood not long after that, for probably the same price.) I'm not sure exactly why I got that particular album for my first one. I didn't have much money because I had a relatively small Free Press route at the time (which I wasn't very good at anyway), so it was cheap was definitely a big reason. And I felt compelled to buy my own album for the first time, as an age-appropriate rite of passage. Why this album, though? I had never heard of either Jeff Beck or the Yardbirds before. Channeling my memory of how I was back then, I likely bought it because I thought Jeff Beck just looked so damn cool on the front of that album. Hey, man, like I said, it was 1973 or 4. I had never heard any of the songs from the album before, and in fact was steeped in the mix of pre-disco funk, soft rock hits, bubblegum pop, and the occasional three-minute 4/4 guitar rock hits that CKLW and Keener 13 and WDRQ were playing at the time, so I wasn't even listening to Yardbirds-type music, really. I was taking a complete flyer on the record. After getting through the initial shock of how different the music was from anything I'd heard before, I started playing the shit out of that album. None of my brothers cared for it, but I fell in love with it. My favorite song quickly became Mr. You're A Better Man Than I. So super cool, and just socially-conscious enough for an 11- or 12-year-old to get. There was nothing else like it for me. Nobody else I knew at school or around the neighborhood knew the album even existed. I was in my own club of one with it. It opened my eyes to a whole new type of pop/rock music, the heavy blues-influenced songs that, I later learned, came from the mid 1960s rather than 1973 or 4. I think it knocked down whatever barriers I might have experienced about trying other 60s and 70s blues rock, blues music by actual blues artists, and even traditional jazz music that I was exposed to later in life. Had I decided to buy some other record on that day—had I bought some Jim Croce or Seals & Crofts or other artist's cutout if they were available—I am convinced I would be listening to an entirely other type of music than I do today, and speaking only for myself, I would have been musically the lesser for it. You can find that album now on places like eBay and Etsy. That's where I got these images. You can't find this exact album with the songs in this exact order on any of the music streamers—because of course not, since it was a cheap cutout made and sold for a very short period of time—but I'm going to create a playlist on YouTube Music of this album. I only wish I could assign this album art to it. Thank you, Jeff Beck, for opening up my ears—and my mind—in 1973 or 4.

It’s a Rogan thing from a couple months ago. https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2022/10/16/joe-rogan-claims-school-has-litter-box-for-girl-identifying-as-cat/?sh=10bcf9a0434b

Rod Stewart at his best. ”Let me love you, baby … you’re drivin’ my poor heart crazy …”

Kind of weird to see him playing with a pick. But then because of the nature of thos particular songs you definitely need to play them with a pick.

I mean, this is unbelievable, are you a Virgo?

“Robert Planet” landed with me just now …

A little late for this year's free agent class ... 😉

Hey @Biff Mayhem: I know you're a big fan of the white album with the pencil on the front, but have I ever shared this version of the Groupie Routine with you? Perhaps on the old site? I believe this version might have been done during the same show that Just Another Band was recorded. I know this is a mothercussin' site now—and thank god because we are all grownups here after all—but NSFW warning applies here:

Maybe not celebratory high fives, per se, but “attaboy” or “good job” would certainly be appropriate. Not just pretending it’s a big so what.

Guess who? * Something to wear - Jazz Discharge Party Hats * A Place - Let’s Move to Cleveland * Animal - Weasels Ripped My Flesh * A Number - 200 Motels * A color - Let’s Make the Water Turn Black * A Girl’s Name- Heavy Duty Judy * A Boy’s Name - Bobby Brown Goes Down * Profession - Downtown Talent Scout * Day of the week - Yeah, I got nothin’ here …

Do you think any part of that might be “Look at me, I’m a professional”?

Golden Globes is foreign press, right? Voters might have a different standard, based on the cultural currency of their individual countries, versus that of the Academy. Just spitballing on that one, though.

Shouldn’t Ronny Jackson tweet be featured by @ConSelfOwns?

Congratulations.

OTOH, corruption abhors a vacuum,.

I think we should give them high fives for this because in some cases, the thing you’re supposed to do isn’t the thing most people would do.

I gotta believe that the more Republicans lean into the crazy, the more their voters on the left side of their margins peel off. I can’t imagine many traditional conservatives, moderates, or declared never-Trumpers are watching the way they are shitting the bed in Congress this month and concluding yes, that’s the party I’ve wanted all along, I’m back in. I believe the only way they can grow their voter base that way is to unearth even more crazy people who haven’t been dug up yet, and I just don’t think there are enough of those out there to win national majorities in elections. In the meantime, Biden and the Democrats have to keep talking to the still-uncommitted and vacillating middle, get them on board, and keep them there as long as the Republican Party is shoving its collective head ever further up its own ass.

I tend toward Fangraphs for both pitching and defensive metrics if for no other reason than they are far more transparent about what makes up their components, plus they are frequently adjusting them for new information. I particularly like FG’s distinction between a pitcher’s WAR, which is totally FIP-based and more forward-looking, and their RA9-WAR, which teases out the luck of BABIP and inherited runners and is more results-oriented, lining up better with ERA. In my poster presentation about multiple rookie seasons last year, I used RA9-WAR for pitchers for this exact reason. Same with the fielding: Fangraphs are continually tweaking their stats with the discovery of new information from sources like Statcast and BIS and explaining it in exhaustive, even eye-glazing, detail. This doesn’t necessarily mean that I definitely believe that FG’s defensive numbers are more accurate than B-Ref’s, but given the stasis of the latter’s data coupled with the paucity of their detail and, frankly, transparency, that’s why I tend toward the former. All this reminds me: I’ve got to get more conversant about Baseballpro’s WARP, DRA, etc. Maybe that should have been my New Year’s resolution instead of my pointless resolution to try to be nicer to people. 😜

Yes, but it’s not hardened Republicans they would want to convince.

Here's a thought: what if there is a little political jujitsu going on here, in which (1) the Biden camp is trying to bait the Republicans into hammering him on this, which would shine a bright light on their hypocrisy after defending Trump on his own massive breach all this time; and/or (2) Biden is intending to embarrass the Trump camp by demonstrating to the country exactly how someone should cooperate with authorities when they get caught on this kind of thing, in exactly the way Trump did not? IOW, what if the Biden camp ... I won't say manufactured this, but rather, allowed this to become public for either or both of these purposes? After all, the scope of their breach is much smaller, and also, the Biden lawyers proactively alerted authorities, whereas the Archives had to contact Trump, who refused to cooperate, and then had to chase the documents down. If the Republicans are smart, they won't touch this with a 10 foot pole. Here's hoping they run right toward it ... 🤞🏼

I think this part might depend on whether you believe either or both of two things: That Correa's drop in fWAR from 6.2 to 4.4 represents a permanent shift downward in his baserunning and defense, because that is where the entire drop came from. His hitting was at basically flat in 2022 versus 2021. That a marginal win on the free agent market is worth the $7MM or $8MM that many analyses have concluded (see Fangraphs). If Correa is a five-win player, that would make his acquisition off the market worth $35MM to $40MM, which is right in line with his 2023 salary. If he's better than that, it's a bonus; if he repeats his 2023 performance, or worse, he falls short to whatever degree.

If Statcast is to be believed, Vierling has a bad jump and a great arm, which I believe suits him best for our smallish right field. His poor jump is also why he probably won't see much, if any, time in center. I would think Meadows would see some time in left when he is not DHing, perhaps splitting that with Baddoo if Akil makes it our of camp, and would see right field when Vierling is sitting against certain right handers. Maton played a few games at shortstop for the Phillies in 2021 and did poorly there, although it has been his primary position in the minors even into last year. Unless he absolutely dazzles in Lakeland while Baez collapses, I have trouble seeing Nick pushing Javy over to second. It's probably more likely Nick wins the second base job and pushes Schoop over the third which, really, I have trouble seeing even that. I think we are going to work Nick at third base for the most part to give him every chance to win that job, unless we pick up a more experienced third baseman in the interim which will allow us to stash Nick in Toledo for depth. We are not signing Correa. Not this winter, not ever.