I am not advocating ten years. I am not advocating anything specific. I’m simply pointing out that given the precedent that Gerrit Cole set with his contract, there is zero chance Skubal accepts as the only and only offer he can receive that gives him fewer years and fewer total dollars than that. There’s nothing in it for him to accept that when in literally everyone’ estimation, he can do way way better on both measures when he goes on the market.
You can make hay of the AAV part, and I agree that’s not nothing, but to players, that matters only for short-term contracts with first-year opt outs so they can be paid like a top tier guy while they are betting on themselves to get the years/dollars they really want. That’s exactly what Bregman did.
Speaking of Bregman, I promise you that if he got the same 6/172 with a second-year opt-out offer from the Tigers this offseason, he would not take it, unless his market collapses this winter and that offer is clearly a cut above all the others, and I don’t believe anyone thinks that’s going to happen. If six and 172 were his targets, he would be here right now.