2023 Detroit Tigers Spring Training Thread

[Tenacious D]

3 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

The fear (and my belief) is that Chris Illitch will NEVER spend money.   He reached out for Baez and it failed and he's probably saying "see, it doesn't work".    I want a fan boy for an owner, not a profit margin guy.   Team is with probably 30 times what his dad bought it for. Sell it to someone who cares about winning. 

I think this is an unfounded or unwarranted fear.  Ilitch has and will spend when it makes sense.  I applaud the front office for sitting out this last free agency period--the majority of those contracts were ridiculous and will not end well.

We have to stop with this lament--yes, it would be great to have Steve Cohen who could care less for any payroll tax restrictions, but he is in the minority.  I doubt that Ilitch Sr. would have gone there, if still alive.

Our biggest opportunity for improvement is to develop all of the high picks we benefited from the last 5 years, along with this year's class (and probably the 2024 draft, too, which will yield a high pick).  Then use free agency, responsibly, to supplement.  Not the other way around. 

This team has legitimate talent--ERod, Meadows, Mize, Skubal, Manning, Greene, Tork and Lange to build around.  Plus a bunch of lottery tickets that could go either way and what I believe is a better farm system than we're given credit for.  Maybe not a lot of elite talent anymore, since most graduated, but a lot of interesting guys who can contribute as soon as this year.

[Motor City Sonics]

5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

what kind of a reflection is it on Harris if we backslide even further?  Last year was classic Murphy's Law--significant injuries, key players missing time (ERod and Meadows), not a single offensive player hitting close to their career averages/potential?

Can we really be worse, and should that be excused?  I don't think this is the same situation that Dombrowski was in--when he joined, the cupboards were literally bare.  That's not the case now, though admittedly there are a ton of question marks.

Personally, I don't see us being worse, although the schedule changes where we don't face our AL Central rivals a disproportionate amount, could have negative implications.

It was Murphy's Law last year.   I mean our starting OF'er gets Vertigo?   Every pitcher from the opening day rotation was injured or psychologically disabled for long stretches.    Schoop, Grossman, Baez, Candy all having career-worst seasons, our star rookie breaks his foot the last week of spring training,  our other star rookie is put into the middle of an awful lineup before he's ready.    Yeah, that's curse-like, isn't it?         We think it can't be as bad this year, but I'm not sold on Meadows being 100% healthy.   I think the Wild Cards are the 3 guys they got from Philly and Malloy, if he continues to be an OBP wizard.    

But really, it's the pitching.    You know Manning is going down to injury.  It's right in front of us, too many signs pointing that way and the other starters are E-Rod, Boyd, Lorenzen and Turnbull (we have no idea how long he'll need).   That's why the expectations are probably lower.     Wentz feels like a unicorn season last year,  he's not that good, is he?   Make Beau stays healthy.  Maybe one of the kids (Madden, Flores, Jobe) comes out of nowhere, but that rotation is, as my neighbor's kid says  "yucky".  

[Tiger337]

24 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

what kind of a reflection is it on Harris if we backslide even further?  Last year was classic Murphy's Law--significant injuries, key players missing time (ERod and Meadows), not a single offensive player hitting close to their career averages/potential?

Can we really be worse, and should that be excused?  I don't think this is the same situation that Dombrowski was in--when he joined, the cupboards were literally bare.  That's not the case now, though admittedly there are a ton of question marks.

Personally, I don't see us being worse, although the schedule changes where we don't face our AL Central rivals a disproportionate amount, could have negative implications.

They could be worse if none of the young hitters progress, Meadows is still unable to play, and the bullpen (which has been good the last two years) fails.  I don't expect them to be worse, but it's not out of the question.  

[chasfh]

32 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

what kind of a reflection is it on Harris if we backslide even further?  Last year was classic Murphy's Law--significant injuries, key players missing time (ERod and Meadows), not a single offensive player hitting close to their career averages/potential?

Can we really be worse, and should that be excused?  I don't think this is the same situation that Dombrowski was in--when he joined, the cupboards were literally bare.  That's not the case now, though admittedly there are a ton of question marks.

Personally, I don't see us being worse, although the schedule changes where we don't face our AL Central rivals a disproportionate amount, could have negative implications.

I don't think we'll be worse, either. PECOTA takes into account only past stats and works mainly if nothing about how players are coached changes, but I believe we will see significant changes in hitting instruction approach, particularly around improvements in fixing players who drift away from their strengths, that may result in improvement all by itself, in addition to simple regression to the mean for key players.

[RatkoVarda]

24 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I think this is an unfounded or unwarranted fear.  Ilitch has and will spend when it makes sense.  I applaud the front office for sitting out this last free agency period--the majority of those contracts were ridiculous and will not end well.

I hope this is true. But so far, he has authorized significant spending (as far as we know) once - after the 2021 season, and it was a complete fail. Miggy's contract is/was often used as an excuse by ownership, management, media and even fans to not spend (as soon as we get out from under it, we can spend!). Well, Bally's implosion could very well be the new built-in excuse to not spend (as soon as we figure media rights out, we can spend!).

and I am not sure why the next batch of FAs will be ready and eager to sign non-ridiculous contracts with any team, let alone the Tigers.

[chasfh]

Speaking of coaching, here's an anecdote reminding us the damage bad coaching can wreak on a player.

https://theathletic.com/4198162/2023/02/15/tigers-spring-training-pitching/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

The Tigers are implementing science into their pitching programs more than ever before, thanks largely to Lund’s professorial background. They’ve had Faedo throw at Joker Marchant Stadium with Hawkeye radars monitoring his every movement. They analyzed the results and worked to optimize his mechanics. That, in part, led to Faedo returning to a three-quarters delivery that he abandoned not long after coming to the Tigers organization.

How’s this for an interesting quote?

“I think it’s more of my natural arm slot,” Faedo said. “They’ve always been like, ‘When did you start trying to raise your arm slot?’ I was like, ‘When I first got here.’ I felt it was one of those things with prior people that I wasn’t throwing correctly … and as a player your like, ‘OK, I have to change, this is what I’m being told.’

“(The new staff) kind of relayed to me that that was incorrect and what I was doing was correct, like the guy that they drafted. Use more of that three-quarters arm slot, play more like an athlete.”

[Stanley70]

The reason the Tigers are so bad is because they can't develop their own talent, period. Bringing in a few free agents will not make that big of a difference when your farm system kicks out a decent hitter once every years.

They have not spent enough on scouting and development and I hope that is where Harris will make the biggest difference.

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

They could be worse if none of the young hitters progress, Meadows is still unable to play, and the bullpen (which has been good the last two years) fails.  I don't expect them to be worse, but it's not out of the question.  

100%. But the inverse is true as well..... 

That's the sort of aggravating thing about the discourse about this team going into 2023.... the default setting for most fans (at least online) seems to be that this team is worse than 2022 and will lose 100 games, when the band of possible outcomes is maybe a little wider than they are giving it credit for.

Edited February 15, 2023 by mtutiger

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Last year, it said 68 wins and everyone laughed.  What does Pecota know?

i didnt laugh.

but i do think they'll be better than 63 this year.  not by much though.

[buddha]

21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

They could be worse if none of the young hitters progress, Meadows is still unable to play, and the bullpen (which has been good the last two years) fails.  I don't expect them to be worse, but it's not out of the question.  

i think baez will want out so he'll try harder this year in order to opt out after this season.  that'll give em another win or two.

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

The reason the Tigers are so bad is because they can't develop their own talent, period. Bringing in a few free agents will not make that big of a difference when your farm system kicks out a decent hitter once every years.

They have not spent enough on scouting and development and I hope that is where Harris will make the biggest difference.

Bingo. The problems that the Tigers have extend beyond the owner and his indifference (perceived or otherwise) to spending money on free agents.

As far as this team's outlook in 2023 is concerned, hate to beat a dead horse, but the ability to outperform expectations largely would lie with the performances of those who were on the roster in 2022.... there weren't any free agents, even big name ones, who were gonna move the preseason outlook beyond 75 wins, let alone 80. It just is what it is....

I would hope that in the future they spend more money as they get closer, but regardless of fans patience, this wasn't the offseason to do it.

Edited February 15, 2023 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, buddha said:

i didnt laugh.

but i do think they'll be better than 63 this year.  not by much though.

ZiPS has them at 71 wins.... so the average of the two seems like their baseline to me.

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

i didnt laugh.

but i do think they'll be better than 63 this year.  not by much though.

I didn't laugh either because I knew they were lucky in 2021.  I expect them to better than 63 wins this year and better than 66 wins too just with better health.  They've got a bad roster though, so I'm a expecting another bad year at the MLB level.  It will be another year of hoping that prospects make progress.    

[mtutiger]

A solid goal for this club is to try and claw back to somewhere around where they landed in 2021.... it's not a good roster, but some movement toward the mean for some of the 2022 underperformers + adding back in some of the 2022 injured (ie. Meadows, Turnbull, possibly Rogers) + some better performances from some of the younger players with the bats gives them a decent chance to get somewhere into the 70s IMO.

If they manage to do that, and in particular if both Greene and Tork more establish themselves as big leaguers, it improves their outlook beyond 2023.

Obviously, all of that may not come to pass, but it's a possibility.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

Jesus!

What?  Did He try to turn it into wine and, oooops, it got bigger instead?

[casimir]

34 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

The reason the Tigers are so bad is because they can't develop their own talent, period. Bringing in a few free agents will not make that big of a difference when your farm system kicks out a decent hitter once every years.

They have not spent enough on scouting and development and I hope that is where Harris will make the biggest difference.

I feel like a good 2023 season won't be measured by wins and losses as much as it will be by laying the framework of actually identifying, acquiring, and developing talent, and then actually following through on it.  I suppose some of the prework has been done, but it might be evident to fans just yet.

[RatkoVarda]

50 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

and the bullpen (which has been good the last two years) fails

considering BP volatility and the loss of top 4 guys, BP is a strong candidate to regress - but Fetter has a lot of arms to work with

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, casimir said:

I feel like a good 2023 season won't be measured by wins and losses as much as it will be by laying the framework of actually identifying, acquiring, and developing talent, and then actually following through on it.  I suppose some of the prework has been done, but it might be evident to fans just yet.

They didn't get a lot of publicity or attention, but on the development side, I am interested to see what (if anything) comes from the new coaching staff hires. Particularly on the pitching side, the fact that they have a coach on their MLB staff who is an expert in kinesiology seems like a big deal given all the injuries they have sustained over the past few years.

[mtutiger]

 

[Tenacious D]

Could Mize make it back at some point this season?  While I wouldn't count on much productivity, it would be nice to get him pitching and shaking off the rust so he's ready to go to start 2024.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Tenacious D

[Shinzaki]

Per Beck on twitter...Mize had back surgery as well as TJ.  Not counting on anything from him

[RandyMarsh]

Mize says his back has been bothering him "for awhile". Not sure what that means, does it mean months or several years? Like was it bothering him when we drafted him but our crack medical staff couldn't detect it?

I don't know much about back injuries so maybe they are hard to detect but if somebody has been bothered by them for seemingly a long time you think somebody would have picked up on it at some point. 

[mtutiger]

32 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Per Beck on twitter...Mize had back surgery as well as TJ.  Not counting on anything from him

Even before the back injury news, it seemed like the default position was that he would be unlikely to see action this year. Especially given that Turnbull was knifed around the same time of year that Mize was and didn't make it back last year.

If both surgeries can recovery any of his stock, that would be a plus at this point.

[mtutiger]

Worth noting that Mize's new college buddy who is camp, Trey Wingenter, also had TJ and Back Surgery in succession as well.

Something Auburn was doing with their pitchers or purely coincidental?

[casimir]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

They didn't get a lot of publicity or attention, but on the development side, I am interested to see what (if anything) comes from the new coaching staff hires. Particularly on the pitching side, the fact that they have a coach on their MLB staff who is an expert in kinesiology seems like a big deal given all the injuries they have sustained over the past few years.

That is quite intriguing, and seemed so when it was announced.  Are the Tigers the first to do this? 

I know San Francisco had a few extra coaches on the major league staff, and not all are eligible to coach during the game.  Harris seems to have brought that with him.  Did the Giants, or anyone else, have a direct relationship between kinesiology and pitching through one coach?  Maybe its not that big of a deal, but when's the last time the Tigers were in the same time zone as progressive thinking?