Gun Legislation, Crime, and Events

[pfife]

5 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

I would think with Jan 6 and the diarrhea hew spews that number goes down. I did not vote for him and won't if nominated. Many of the non indoctrinated feel the same on the right. Its amazing how the evangelical worship him like a golden cow..... He stands for everything they confess to be against.

I sincerely hope you're right.   I've been disappointed in the change in a lot of GOP sentiment since Jan 7th on the Jan 6 stuff.   It seems like they've shifted quite remarkably from being correctly outraged to now trying to downplay it.   

But I agree with the notion that on the scoreboard overall, when Trump was president he himself lost, and they also lost the House and Senate.  That's obviously not a good record but I also think the battlefield could be quite different now in important ways.   

If he runs, I think it will be a very close election and I definitely definitely think he could win.   I don't remember the actual breakdown but building off 2020 he'd only have to swing a handful of states by a couple hundred thousand votes total.   It's not the 7million vote blowout.

Edited December 11, 2021 by pfife

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, pfife said:

In my experience in following politics for quite a while now, I'd also argue that relying on a "long memory" of voters is probably a losing proposition so I don't think the Democrats will be very successful reminding folks how terrible Trump was.   Time and time again we see votes as having short memories.

It's less about the memory of the voters and more like, when he reemerges, to quote David Byrne, he'll be the same as he ever was. 

And to that end, to the extent that his drop in image has leveled off, its because he's not in public view. That will change when he runs

[pfife]

I feel like I said that kind of stuff in 2015 and 2016.  I probably did.

[pfife]

In 2020, I think a big reason Biden won was because he was able to consolidate the left and the center around him.   

I know we have Trumpers here talking about how much "the left" loves Biden.  But as some IDK actually ON "the left", and not someone making elitist outsider assessments of "the left" - I'm not sure he's going to have them as consolidated as he did for 2020.   I think it's both b/c of Trump not being president and b/c Biden has disappointed "the left" by thus far not keeping some promises they care about a lot.

I also think there's a pretty good change he might be losing moderates to the GOP as well.  But I do think that will be heavily impacted by Trump being on the ticket.   

Edited December 11, 2021 by pfife

[mtutiger]

Just now, pfife said:

I feel like I said that kind of stuff in 2015 and 2016.  I probably did.

I'm not arguing that he can't win... but I do think it's undeniable the fact that his image has somewhat leveled off right now because he's largely absent from the public view, and the moment he emerges in a big way again, it'll decline and he'll have the same liabilities he had in 2020.

That doesn't mean that he can't win. I just think, image wise, he's at a high point because he's been largely out of public view.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, pfife said:

In 2020, I think a big reason Biden won was because he was able to consolidate the left and the center around him.   

I know we have Trumpers here talking about how much "the left" loves Biden.  But as some IDK actually ON "the left", and not someone making elitist outsider assessments of "the left" - I'm not sure he's going to have them as consolidated as he did for 2020.   I think it's both b/c of Trump not being president and b/c Biden has disappointed "the left" by thus far not keeping some promises they care about a lot.

This is a legitimate concern for sure.

[pfife]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I'm not arguing that he can't win... but I do think it's undeniable the fact that his image has somewhat leveled off right now because he's largely absent from the public view, and the moment he emerges in a big way again, it'll decline and he'll have the same liabilities he had in 2020.

That doesn't mean that he can't win. I just think, image wise, he's at a high point because he's been largely out of public view.

ok, gotcha.

Honestly I think if the election were tomorrow, him vs. brandon, Trump most likely wins.

[pfife]

I'm saying right now when we look at polling for 2024 it Trump is running we should add about +3% to his numbers for any poll.   LOL   only kinda kidding.

[mtutiger]

13 minutes ago, pfife said:

ok, gotcha.

Honestly I think if the election were tomorrow, him vs. brandon, Trump most likely wins.

Probably right.

Luckily, we don't have snap elections in this country lol

[Tiger337]

I think Trump would beat Biden now, but not just because of Biden.  Biden beat Trump in 2020, not because left and center consolidated around Biden, but because people hated Trump and came out to vote in record numbers to get him out of their lives.  Now, Trump is in the background and some are forgetting what a horrible person he is. 

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Tiger337

[MichiganCardinal]

4 hours ago, pfife said:

In 2020, I think a big reason Biden won was because he was able to consolidate the left and the center around him.   

I know we have Trumpers here talking about how much "the left" loves Biden.  But as some IDK actually ON "the left", and not someone making elitist outsider assessments of "the left" - I'm not sure he's going to have them as consolidated as he did for 2020.   I think it's both b/c of Trump not being president and b/c Biden has disappointed "the left" by thus far not keeping some promises they care about a lot.

I also think there's a pretty good change he might be losing moderates to the GOP as well.  But I do think that will be heavily impacted by Trump being on the ticket.   

I know a lot of my demographic (educated 20-somethings) are not happy with Biden. He was picked for not being Trump, with assurances from the party that “he really is a GOOD choice, not just a necessary one!” Which was a damn lie (though also a foreseeable lie).

If the choice is Biden or Trump, I know very few who would actually pick Trump, but I’m sure some (even more than normal) would stay home (and not pay postage) this time around.

I would like to see Dems nominate someone who is not Biden or Harris, whether the opponent is Trump or not. I’m also not holding my breath.

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I know a lot of my demographic (educated 20-somethings) are not happy with Biden. He was picked for not being Trump, with assurances from the party that “he really is a GOOD choice, not just a necessary one!” Which was a damn lie (though also a foreseeable lie).

If the choice is Biden or Trump, I know very few who would actually pick Trump, but I’m sure some (even more than normal) would stay home (and not pay postage) this time around.

I would like to see Dems nominate someone who is not Biden or Harris, whether the opponent is Trump or not. I’m also not holding my breath.

I'm speaking generally here, MC - from this perspective (i.e.having voted 13 times for president)  it  gets hard not to get tired with people who get all down and dumpy when the Pres doesn't turn out to be Jed Bartlett or Elivs Presley. When the republic is reeling and fundamental institutions are dying from lack of maintenance, we damn well better be able to get excited over a guy that has some kind of loyalty to principles and institutions and shelve the concerns about how much fanboy joy the Pres gives some cohort. The generation of kids that grew up with helicopter parents don't want to find out the hard way that they weren't done any favors by being led to believe someone else is going swoop in and take care of all the stuff for them that isn't entertaining enough to be fun.

Edited December 11, 2021 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

what did people think biden was going to be?  he's been fine.  made the important call on afghanistan.  inflation isnt his fault and they're trying - finally - to do something about infrastructure.  he has to craft legislation that can get passed by sinema and manchin in the senate while trying to make the left wing of the democratic house happy.  that's a tall order.  and heck, the economy is doing well right now all things considered.

they've got another year to get anything done before they get waxed in the midterms.

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

what did people think biden was going to be? 

LOL - Look at pop culture right now. What can't you go more than two places through a movie catalog without running into?...

answer - a Super Hero.

I don't believe the omnipresence of the meme is an accident.

[Motown Bombers]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I know a lot of my demographic (educated 20-somethings) are not happy with Biden. He was picked for not being Trump, with assurances from the party that “he really is a GOOD choice, not just a necessary one!” Which was a damn lie (though also a foreseeable lie).

If the choice is Biden or Trump, I know very few who would actually pick Trump, but I’m sure some (even more than normal) would stay home (and not pay postage) this time around.

I would like to see Dems nominate someone who is not Biden or Harris, whether the opponent is Trump or not. I’m also not holding my breath.

The millennials will deserve everything that's coming to them. They want better candidates but never turn out for elections. They couldn't put on their big boy pants and get out of their idealistic fairyland and vote for Hillary. Now they will be dealing with a conservative Supreme Court for most of their adult life. Institutions were destroyed that will take decades to repair if they ever do. Republicans didn't get to this point from one election. It took decades. Millennials elect Biden and don't get everything they want so they will pout and sit it out until the shit hits the fan. 

[oblong]

They thought he was going to pay off their student loans.  

[Archie]

4 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I know a lot of my demographic (educated 20-somethings) are not happy with Biden. He was picked for not being Trump, with assurances from the party that “he really is a GOOD choice, not just a necessary one!” Which was a damn lie (though also a foreseeable lie).

If the choice is Biden or Trump, I know very few who would actually pick Trump, but I’m sure some (even more than normal) would stay home (and not pay postage) this time around.

I would like to see Dems nominate someone who is not Biden or Harris, whether the opponent is Trump or not. I’m also not holding my breath.

I don't see the dems going with Biden or Harris in 2024. As it stands right now I doubt either could win an election.  Also, both are not really in favor with their party but there's plenty of time to change all that.  I think Biden is being led around now and I don't think his health or mental state will allow him to run again.  I read an article last week that suggested Pete Buttigieg should be the nominee for one single reason and that is he is gay.  It was time we had a gay POTUS and it would satisfy the gay community.  Mentality like that is killing us.  We need two good candidates to square off that will work to improve the USA.  It shouldn't matter what color their skin is, what sex they are or their sexual orientation.  None of that should matter.  Just nominate the best darn candidate! 

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, oblong said:

They thought he was going to pay off their student loans.  

Yet he never said that he would.

[mtutiger]

4 hours ago, buddha said:

what did people think biden was going to be?  he's been fine.  made the important call on afghanistan.  inflation isnt his fault and they're trying - finally - to do something about infrastructure.  he has to craft legislation that can get passed by sinema and manchin in the senate while trying to make the left wing of the democratic house happy.  that's a tall order.  and heck, the economy is doing well right now all things considered.

they've got another year to get anything done before they get waxed in the midterms.

And with regard to the bolded, on one hand, I probably feel as jaded as the rest of my millennial cohort on some of the progress, but that doesn't discount political reality.... like, if I set about from scratch trying to set up a form of government, the United States system wouldn't be the way I'd set it up. It's not a coincidence that countries like Germany and France, whose democracies post-WW2 we helped piece together, did not emulate us.

But, this is the system we have. These are the institutions we have. And it wouldnt matter if Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren were President, they would have to deal with this system. No amount of complaining would change that. 

So yeah, with the political reality as it exists, Biden probably has played his hand as best he can. I have my complaints (mostly related to immigration issues and on the speed of addressing supply chain issues) but he has gotten a lot done. More than I think Bernie or Liz would have. But I dont know that people understand or recognize the realities of this system... the Presidency is a powerful institution, but they aren't kings or dictators.

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, pfife said:

... The fact remains that trump did get ...   I would anticipate him getting more votes than he did in 2020.

I don't see this as possible at all.

10% of his voters will be dead from Covid or other age-related diseases (the younger generation does NOT support him the way the older gen does, and there will be attrition there in 4 years).

 

9 hours ago, pfife said:

In my experience in following politics for quite a while now, I'd also argue that relying on a "long memory" of voters is probably a losing proposition ... Time and time again we see votes as having short memories.

 

And I don't see Jan 6th being lost to a "short memory". That turned off a huge swath of voters. And it won't be forgotten. Even if the % changes, he's permanently lost a swath of Independents and a swath of Moderate or Establishment Republicans who will now not vote for him no matter what.

That doesn't even speak to moderate/ establishment Republicans who Trump is simply forcing out of the party. Politically, emotionally, and soon to be seen, with their votes. They don't have short memories on what Trump has done to them and their party either. There will either be backlash votes, or non-votes that were formerly his.

He's not getting more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020.

If he's the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024... he's getting his ass handed to him in a handbasket.

Complete and total wipeout, and it doesn't matter who is heading the Dem ticket.

[gehringer_2]

22 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

10% of his voters will be dead from Covid

in the 8 yrs between 2016 and 2024 something along the line of 30 million people will have been born and died in the US. 8 yrs is an eternity in the life of the electorate. That last 4 elections have been won by a total less than that.

[Tiger337]

I am not concerned that Trump will get more votes than 2020.  I am concerned that Biden will get fewer.  The 2020 election was emotionally charged because of Trump.  I think there might be less interest in 2024.  

[Archie]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

in the 8 yrs between 2016 and 2024 something along the line of 30 million people will have been born and died in the US. 8 yrs is an eternity in the life of the electorate. That last 4 elections have been won by a total less than that.

Dead people vote every election.  Even Bob Dole said he plans to vote in the next election in Chicago.  😊

[MichiganCardinal]

To be clear from my perspective, I’ve been able to vote twice, have both times, and voted for Hillary and Biden. Hillary was like swallowing knives but I did it because I would never vote for Trump and wasn’t going to waste my vote or stay at home.

Speaking more broadly to millennials though, I think they would vote in droves if a candidate was on the ticket that motivated them to do so. Unlike myself, the vast majority of millennials are not interested in politics, in part because they feel like there is this massive disconnect between what their wants and needs are, and who the people are in Washington. In their minds, it doesn’t matter if it’s Trump or Biden or Hillary or whoever, because none of those candidates actually give a shit about them. The vast majority are not going to say “I don’t like Hillary but SCOTUS is important so I will vote for her anyway.”

That’s not right, and it’s absolutely a two-way street, and more millennials should vote. Yet when people like Biden come out and make a campaign promise of $10k in student loan debt forgiveness (while others in his party are promising $50k), and then proceeds to play a game over the next two years of “my people are looking into whether I can”, it just creates an even larger disconnect.

Also FWIW, the lack of youth vote is not a millennium problem, it’s existed for many, many years.

[oblong]

So california is going to implement for guns what Texas did to abortion.