Gun Legislation, Crime, and Events

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, Archie said:

This terrorist was not an American citizen.  

So, that means you won't make excuses for him.  

[CMRivdogs]

Those damn Brits

[Motown Bombers]

To think, we had gone nearly 60 years since the last British invasion. 

[chasfh]

On 1/13/2022 at 10:22 AM, buddha said:

the only public official or group whose satisfaction rate has improved over the last year in chicago?

the police.

 

Makes sense. In an environment in which literally every day the local media is hammering the idea that crime is out of control, people’s opinions will be shaped to be sympathetic to the only organization that their entertainment shows tell them will save us all.

[Motown Bombers]

Chicago is averaging over two murders a day. If that is not out of control, than what is?

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Chicago is averaging over two murders a day. If that is not out of control, than what is?

its the media's fault.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Makes sense. In an environment in which literally every day the local media is hammering the idea that crime is out of control, people’s opinions will be shaped to be sympathetic to the only organization that their entertainment shows tell them will save us all.

i would think people would be angry with the police for failing to do their jobs.

and if you look at the major news media outlets in town, they publish plenty of pieces criticizing the police.  the latest tribune piece i saw called them out for their takes on electronic monitoring. 

we usually watch pbs news and wgn and they have much different takes on crime reporting, lol.

i think people are interested in crime and murder so that's what is covered in most of the media.  on the one hand, if you live here your life largely goes on as normal and you dont really notice crime unless it happens to you.  otoh, you also become numb to crime because it happens so often it appears almost normal to have 5-10 people murdered every weekend and for carjackings to be up 200% since 2019.

i think people should be MORE critical of the police because whatever theyre trying isnt working.  instead, the right doubles down on meaningless praise of "our heroes in the police force" while the left puts its head in the sand on crime while focusing only on police misconduct.  they miss the forest by focusing on specific trees.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Chicago is averaging over two murders a day. If that is not out of control, than what is?

What number would be within control?

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, buddha said:

i would think people would be angry with the police for failing to do their jobs.

and if you look at the major news media outlets in town, they publish plenty of pieces criticizing the police.  the latest tribune piece i saw called them out for their takes on electronic monitoring. 

we usually watch pbs news and wgn and they have much different takes on crime reporting, lol.

i think people are interested in crime and murder so that's what is covered in most of the media.  on the one hand, if you live here your life largely goes on as normal and you dont really notice crime unless it happens to you.  otoh, you also become numb to crime because it happens so often it appears almost normal to have 5-10 people murdered every weekend and for carjackings to be up 200% since 2019.

i think people should be MORE critical of the police because whatever theyre trying isnt working.  instead, the right doubles down on meaningless praise of "our heroes in the police force" while the left puts its head in the sand on crime while focusing only on police misconduct.  they miss the forest by focusing on specific trees.

This is what I mean by a media-induced approval bump. The only reason most people conclude that crime is spiraling out of control is that they are being told that. And it works the other way, too: if people’s main exposure to the police is via media stories of their killing unarmed black people, their approval of the police would plummet accordingly.

If most people were responding only to what they see in their own lives, their opinions of the police would be unchanged, since most people don’t see out-of-control crime, or encounter the police, on an personal basis every day.

[buddha]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

This is what I mean by a media-induced approval bump. The only reason most people conclude that crime is spiraling out of control is that they are being told that. And it works the other way, too: if people’s main exposure to the police is via media stories of their killing unarmed black people, their approval of the police would plummet accordingly.

If most people were responding only to what they see in their own lives, their opinions of the police would be unchanged, since most people don’t see out-of-control crime, or encounter the police, on an personal basis every day.

people on the south and west sides might have a different opinion on the crime being out of control issue than you or I.

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

people on the south and west sides might have a different opinion on the crime being out of control issue than you or I.

Some of them might—and some in my own neighborhood might—if they personally see crime, or know people who do, or who are in the game. They would definitely have a different opinion on it.

[Motown Bombers]

16 minutes ago, chasfh said:

What number would be within control?

Toronto, nearly identical in size, had 84 murders last year which was one of their highest totals ever. Chicago had 836 or 10 times more than Toronto in one of Toronto's worst years. Both Canada and the US fancy themselves as developed first world countries and Toronto is one of the most ethnically diverse cities in the world. Even New York, which is almost 3 times larger than Chicago, had 485 murders. Hopefully that answers your question and maybe you will answer then what is out of control? If Chicago becomes Juarez? 

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Toronto, nearly identical in size, had 84 murders last year which was one of their highest totals ever. Chicago had 836 or 10 times more than Toronto in one of Toronto's worst years. Both Canada and the US fancy themselves as developed first world countries and Toronto is one of the most ethnically diverse cities in the world. Even New York, which is almost 3 times larger than Chicago, had 485 murders. Hopefully that answers your question and maybe you will answer then what is out of control? If Chicago becomes Juarez? 

I think it's apples and oranges to compare Chicago with either Toronto or Juarez, since they are all in different countries, since they have different social structures, even beyond different policing and justice structures.

Is 485 murders in New York City what you would consider within control?

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think it's apples and oranges to compare Chicago with either Toronto or Juarez, since they are all in different countries, since they have different social structures, even beyond different policing and justice structures.

Is 485 murders in New York City what you would consider within control?

New York is roughly 2.96 times larger than Chicago so New York's 485 murders divided by 2.96 would be 163. I'll round up a little and say 175.  Apparently Chicago has no desire to be Toronto even on it's worst day. 

Now your turn. 

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

New York is roughly 2.96 times larger than Chicago so New York's 485 murders divided by 2.96 would be 163. I'll round up a little and say 175.  Apparently Chicago has no desire to be Toronto even on it's worst day. 

Now your turn. 

Not my turn until you tell me whether you think 485 murders in New York City what you would consider within control.

[buddha]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think it's apples and oranges to compare Chicago with either Toronto or Juarez, since they are all in different countries, since they have different social structures, even beyond different policing and justice structures.

Is 485 murders in New York City what you would consider within control?

i think its really hard to argue that chicago doesnt have a murder problem.  comparing chicago to its peer cities of new york and los angeles shows just how severe that problem is.

you can quibble with the meaning of the term "out of control", but the number of murders is an issue.  crime in chicago is a big issue locally, and now nationally too as it becomes the poster child for attacks on democratic crime mitigation efforts.

the democrats are facing a branding problem.  they have talked about police misconduct issues and "root cause of crime" issues and structural racism and unfairness in sentencing issues as the real problems.  theyve put into place prosecutors and city officials with the same mindset in big cities like new york, chicago, san francisco, and philadelphia.  the crime rates in these cities - for whatever reason - has increased.  now the backlash is occurring.

i dont think its all down to the media because the media reports ive read have been mixed between complimentary and antagonistic.  i think people have a sense that certain violent crimes are increasing because certain violent crimes are increasing.

i think the democrats are about to get absolutely waxed in the next elections and increasing crime - and their apparent acquiescence to it - is a big reason why.  crime and inflation.

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not my turn until you tell me whether you think 485 murders in New York City what you would consider within control.

No I said 175 is within control. 485 is not within control for Chicago. I'm not sure I can state it any more clearer. Now you answer instead of deflecting. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

i think its really hard to argue that chicago doesnt have a murder problem.  comparing chicago to its peer cities of new york and los angeles shows just how severe that problem is.

you can quibble with the meaning of the term "out of control", but the number of murders is an issue.  crime in chicago is a big issue locally, and now nationally too as it becomes the poster child for attacks on democratic crime mitigation efforts.

the democrats are facing a branding problem.  they have talked about police misconduct issues and "root cause of crime" issues and structural racism and unfairness in sentencing issues as the real problems.  theyve put into place prosecutors and city officials with the same mindset in big cities like new york, chicago, san francisco, and philadelphia.  the crime rates in these cities - for whatever reason - has increased.  now the backlash is occurring.

i dont think its all down to the media because the media reports ive read have been mixed between complimentary and antagonistic.  i think people have a sense that certain violent crimes are increasing because certain violent crimes are increasing.

i think the democrats are about to get absolutely waxed in the next elections and increasing crime - and their apparent acquiescence to it - is a big reason why.  crime and inflation.

New York and Los Angeles combined have 882 murders. Chicago has 836. New York and Los Angeles have a combined 12 million people to Chicago's 2.7 million. Hundreds of people are needlessly being killed in Chicago and the ire of the people is usually directed at the few police involved shootings. 

[buddha]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

New York and Los Angeles combined have 882 murders. Chicago has 836. New York and Los Angeles have a combined 12 million people to Chicago's 2.7 million. Hundreds of people are needlessly being killed in Chicago and the ire of the people is usually directed at the few police involved shootings. 

i think the ire of the media and the left is directed at the police for those shootings.  most people dont think that way.  

most surveys of black people find that they want MORE police, not less.  hispanics and asians are pretty pro police. the activist class and "well meaning whites" may be well represented in the media, but most folks dont think that way.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, buddha said:

i think the ire of the media and the left is directed at the police for those shootings.  most people dont think that way.  

most surveys of black people find that they want MORE police, not less.  hispanics and asians are pretty pro police. the activist class and "well meaning whites" may be well represented in the media, but most folks dont think that way.

The well meaning whites are the best. It's like they want to overcorrect and don't actually listen. It's probably why Eric Adams won in New York and defund the police bill was soundly defeated in Minneapolis. 

[buddha]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

The well meaning whites are the best. It's like they want to overcorrect and don't actually listen. It's probably why Eric Adams won in New York and defund the police bill was soundly defeated in Minneapolis. 

or san francisco and philadelphia, where youve had black politicians calling out white prosecutors for their lax attitudes towards crime and criminals.

youve had the same thing in chicago to an extent as the mayor and the chief of police have both called out the courts and prosecutors for failing to do their jobs.  but the press here has attacked both of them.  and in chicago - unlike philly and sf - all the major players and power brokers are black.

we'll see if some of the more "progressive" city officials actually lose their elections.  i doubt it considering that's who controls the democratic party in chicago.  but some of the democratic socialist alderman might lose next year.  we'll see.

[chasfh]

22 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

No I said 175 is within control. 485 is not within control for Chicago. I'm not sure I can state it any more clearer. Now you answer instead of deflecting. 

You didn't say 175 is the target number it within control, in so many words, but you're saying that now, so, OK.

By inference, I take that to mean you think New York City's murder rate is on the high end of being within control, since you used their murder number of 485 as the basis for your determining that if Chicago had the same rate, their totals murders would be at that within-control figure of 175—that is, that's what Chicago would have to drop to in order to no longer be at "out of control" levels. Please feel free to correct me if I got any of this wrong, which I know you always do with particular relish. 😁

By the way, Chicago murder totals haven't been under 175 since World War II or thereabouts, so it looks like by your definition, out of control crime is a chronic condition here. So, better stay away. 😏

[chasfh]

I will say that the only indication I have that crime in Chicago is out of control is from the media telling me it is, in so many words.

Personally speaking, nothing I see in my day-to-day life suggests to me that Chicago crime is out of control. COVID notwithstanding, I'm moving about the city in the same manner I did last year, and as I did during 2020, and as in I did during every year before that. There is nothing in my day-to-day experience that restricts my movement or activity because of increasing crime, increased police presence, imposition of city curfews, or anything of that nature, Everything looks to me like it has always looked since I've moved here.

Even the WGN newscast that buddha referred to is showing no more yellow tape stories than before, as far as I can tell. Regardless of whether actual crime levels are waxing as they are now, or waning as they did during the early 2010s, local stations run the same number of yellow tape stories every newscast, three or four. So I can't get any real indication of how crime is trending from that.

The only indication I have that Chicago crime is out of control is the media telling me flat out that it is.

And by the way, this is the only point I was trying to make: not whether Chicago's crime is actually "within control" or "out of control", per se, but that the only way I could know either way is either by the media telling me, or based on my personal observation, and I'm not personally observing that.

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I will say that the only indication I have that crime in Chicago is out of control is from the media telling me it is, in so many words.

Personally speaking, nothing I see in my day-to-day life suggests to me that Chicago crime is out of control. COVID notwithstanding, I'm moving about the city in the same manner I did last year, and as I did during 2020, and as in I did during every year before that. There is nothing in my day-to-day experience that restricts my movement or activity because of increasing crime, increased police presence, imposition of city curfews, or anything of that nature, Everything looks to me like it has always looked since I've moved here.

Even the WGN newscast that buddha referred to is showing no more yellow tape stories than before, as far as I can tell. Regardless of whether actual crime levels are waxing as they are now, or waning as they did during the early 2010s, local stations run the same number of yellow tape stories every newscast, three or four. So I can't get any real indication of how crime is trending from that.

The only indication I have that Chicago crime is out of control is the media telling me flat out that it is.

And by the way, this is the only point I was trying to make: not whether Chicago's crime is actually "within control" or "out of control", per se, but that the only way I could know either way is either by the media telling me, or based on my personal observation, and I'm not personally observing that.

what would "out of control" be for you?

focusing on how MB turned a phrase probably isnt the best way to describe crime levels in chicago.  certain violent crimes have increased, especially in poorer neighborhoods.  

crime has always interested me, so i search out stories about it.  perhaps that's why my perceptions of crime are different than yours.  you would likely argue that it warps my perceptions, and i would argue it makes me more informed on the subject.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

what would "out of control" be for you?

focusing on how MB turned a phrase probably isnt the best way to describe crime levels in chicago.  certain violent crimes have increased, especially in poorer neighborhoods.  

crime has always interested me, so i search out stories about it.  perhaps that's why my perceptions of crime are different than yours.  you would likely argue that it warps my perceptions, and i would argue it makes me more informed on the subject.

I will consider it out of control once it affects what I do on a day-to-day basis.

You're right in that I have no interest in crime anecdotes. I'm more interested in crime data, such as the data I posted—which I was criticized for doing instead of, I guess, setting my own hair on fire based on stories—showing that the change in violent crime rate varied substantially by neighborhood. Violent crime is down in Bucktown, for instance, in 2021 versus 2020. I took a metaphorical shot to the kneecaps for that one.