Gun Legislation, Crime, and Events

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Let me guess - Homicide actually tracks a state's educational attainment level, and the blue state have better schools?

It seems to track with poverty level as well which are mostly red states. State like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and New Mexico have high murder rates and all are among the poorest in the country. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

It seems to track with poverty level as well which are mostly red states. State like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and New Mexico have high murder rates and all are among the poorest in the country. 

yeah - I think I even used to know that.....Seems now that you mention it I remember making a post about murder rates in the past after I had run down some numbers and the argument was that they tracked the highest poverty census tracts, but IIRC at the time the context was not red/blue or state vs state but just was that murder rates in some cities weren't really better or worse  than others because of some unknown variables, but just because some cities had a higher proportion of poor census tracts, where murder always averaged something like 40/100K, while in non poverty areas it always tends to be 1-3/100K.

Edited April 16, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

12 hours ago, Archie said:

I'll agree with you to a point, its the democrats that are running the push to defund the police.  

No, they aren't.  That is protestors doing that, not people who make laws.  

 

[Archie]

8 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

No, they aren't.  That is protestors doing that, not people who make laws.  

 

Democrats are trying to flip the narrative but people aren't buying it.  You guys following the party line will get a merit badge though.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/democrats-want-flip-defund-police-republicans-it-could-backfire-n1275482

Here are some of the places that cut funding.  Some cuts were only a few percent and others larger.

https://www.operationdefendthebadge.org/post/which-cities-have-defunded-police

Here's more articles from the liberal media about dems supporting defunding the police and how it was a mistake.  Some democrats still support it but mainly they're from the wacky AOC caucus.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/defund-the-police-democrats/index.html

https://news.yahoo.com/democrats-look-shake-off-defund-160008747.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

[buddha]

11 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

And all the big crime is in red states. Blue states have blue cities that are bigger and bluer than blue cities in red states and still have less violent crime. Perhaps it's the easier access to guns? Why does Oklahoma have a higher murder rate than Michigan? What city in Oklahoma is bluer and more violent than Detroit?

all the "big crime" is in red states is not true.  violent crime in almost every state is concentrated in its larger cities.  crime is concentrated in large cities for a number of reasons.  those larger cities tend to be run exclusively by democrats.

but you know this and are just being argumentative.

(and in 2020 michigan had a higher murder rate and violent crime rate than oklahoma)

 

 

[buddha]

9 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

No, they aren't.  That is protestors doing that, not people who make laws.  

 

the far left of the democratic party has called for defunding the police.  the calls were very loud during the riots after george floyd's death.  after the surge in crime in many areas that followed those riots, the calls arent so loud anymore.

in fact, since crime is now the republicans #1 issue, the democrats are scaling back their "see how many prisoners we can let go" rhetoric and jumping back into the "see all the people we arrest" rhetoric.

that's what's happening here in chicago.  i imagine its happening other places too.  ive seen it in san francisco of all places.

[buddha]

the democratic party has made many sensible legislative push backs against things like oversentencing, harsh sentencing,  police misconduct, the availability of guns, and racial profiling.  there are necessary corrections that need to be made in how the american state policies its citizens.

but there are consequences to many of those things, both politically and practically.  politically, youre going to be on the hook when crime increases.  the other party will blame your policies for it because you are "soft on crime."  practically, you are likely to see an increase in crime because your policies are short term fixes to some problems (oversentencing) and not fixes to long term problems (jobs, poverty, illegal drug trade, retraining and incorporating ex cons back into society with jobs and a means to live).  without better solutions to the long term problems, all you are doing is releasing criminals with no prospects back into society and some of them will go back to crime.  so the crime rate goes up.

the democrats should know that is coming.  unfortunately, they will likely move back on many of their previous efforts because of it.

[Motown Bombers]

30 minutes ago, buddha said:

all the "big crime" is in red states is not true.  violent crime in almost every state is concentrated in its larger cities.  crime is concentrated in large cities for a number of reasons.  those larger cities tend to be run exclusively by democrats.

but you know this and are just being argumentative.

(and in 2020 michigan had a higher murder rate and violent crime rate than oklahoma)

 

 

So why do red states have on average higher crime and violent crime? Blue states have blue cities. They are bigger and bluer than red state blue cities. If red state blue cities were bigger, they would be blue states. 

And no, for 2020 per the CDC Oklahoma has a higher homicide rate than Michigan. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

The top states are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina. Those are all more than Illinois which has the blue, hell on earth, Chicago. 

[Tiger337]

41 minutes ago, buddha said:

the far left of the democratic party has called for defunding the police.  the calls were very loud during the riots after george floyd's death.  after the surge in crime in many areas that followed those riots, the calls arent so loud anymore.

in fact, since crime is now the republicans #1 issue, the democrats are scaling back their "see how many prisoners we can let go" rhetoric and jumping back into the "see all the people we arrest" rhetoric.

that's what's happening here in chicago.  i imagine its happening other places too.  ive seen it in san francisco of all places.

But the rest of the Democratic party doesn't care about the far left and actually seems to resent them.  It's not like the Republican party where the far right seems to have become the party.    

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, Archie said:

Democrats are trying to flip the narrative but people aren't buying it.  You guys following the party line will get a merit badge though.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/democrats-want-flip-defund-police-republicans-it-could-backfire-n1275482

Here are some of the places that cut funding.  Some cuts were only a few percent and others larger.

https://www.operationdefendthebadge.org/post/which-cities-have-defunded-police

Here's more articles from the liberal media about dems supporting defunding the police and how it was a mistake.  Some democrats still support it but mainly they're from the wacky AOC caucus.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/defund-the-police-democrats/index.html

https://news.yahoo.com/democrats-look-shake-off-defund-160008747.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Be careful calling a few percent 'cuts' as defund the police.  Local government has been strapped for cash for years for various reasons and have had to make cuts across the board.  Add into unions wanting to raises for their members.  They start taking into cost of living and inflation and point out how an increase to funding still is a net decrease when those factors are put into play.  Republicans scoff at this stuff, until they see they adopt the same language to push their side of the 'defund the police' narrative.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

So why do red states have on average higher crime and violent crime? Blue states have blue cities. They are bigger and bluer than red state blue cities. If red state blue cities were bigger, they would be blue states. 

And no, for 2020 per the CDC Oklahoma has a higher homicide rate than Michigan. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

The top states are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina. Those are all more than Illinois which has the blue, hell on earth, Chicago. 

i'll remember this argument the next time you fight with chas about the murder rate in chicago, lol.  it's almost like you change your position depending on who you are arguing with....🤔

what is the point you are trying to make about red states/blue states?  are you trying to say that democrats are better at dealing with violent crime than republicans?

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

But the rest of the Democratic party doesn't care about the far left and actually seems to resent them.  It's not like the Republican party where the far right seems to have become the party.    

i would not say the rest of the democratic party doesnt care about the far left, did you watch the democratic presidential debates when the candidates fell all over themselves to take the furthest left position as possible, especially on issues that had a tangential relationship to race?

now, i would agree with what i think is your general premise: the majority democratic voter rejected that view in a presidential election.  on a local level, many of the politicians on the left who espoused "defund the police" rhetoric (which is really police reform rhetoric) won local elections.  

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

i'll remember this argument the next time you fight with chas about the murder rate in chicago, lol.  it's almost like you change your position depending on who you are arguing with....🤔

what is the point you are trying to make about red states/blue states?  are you trying to say that democrats are better at dealing with violent crime than republicans?

7 of the top 10 states are red states and I'm stretching considering Georgia a blue state. In fact, the 7 states with the highest murder rates are red states. You're literally backing up my point here. 17 of the top 25 states you listed here are red states. 

I also don't think Chicago's murder rate is acceptable but it may shock you that I can have two independent competing thoughts. 

I find it interesting California isn't even in the top half and they have more blue cities than any state in the country. 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I find it interesting California isn't even in the top half and they have more blue cities than any state in the country. 

I would guess it relates to lower pop density in CA cities and their generally high income

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

7 of the top 10 states are red states and I'm stretching considering Georgia a blue state. In fact, the 7 states with the highest murder rates are red states. You're literally backing up my point here. 17 of the top 25 states you listed here are red states. 

I also don't think Chicago's murder rate is acceptable but it may shock you that I can have two independent competing thoughts. 

I find it interesting California isn't even in the top half and they have more blue cities than any state in the country. 

so what is the point you are trying to make?  are you saying democrats are better at controlling violent crime than republicans?  

also, you switched from violent crime to murder rate, but who is counting?

[buddha]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I would guess it relates to lower pop density in CA cities and their generally high income

wait a second...you mean there might be a little more nuance to the issue than red state/blue state?  lol.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I would guess it relates to lower pop density in CA cities and their generally high income

Jackson and Little Rock for example aren't high density cities. San Francisco is the densest city in the country outside of New York. Los Angeles is 6 times as dense as Little Rock. 

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

i would not say the rest of the democratic party doesnt care about the far left, did you watch the democratic presidential debates when the candidates fell all over themselves to take the furthest left position as possible, especially on issues that had a tangential relationship to race?

now, i would agree with what i think is your general premise: the majority democratic voter rejected that view in a presidential election.  on a local level, many of the politicians on the left who espoused "defund the police" rhetoric (which is really police reform rhetoric) won local elections.  

Police reform is not a radical idea like defunding the police.  I think there are many centered Democrats who would like to make reforms to law enforcement.  I don't think any reasonable person wants to actually defund the police which is what conservatives imply when mocking liberals.  

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, buddha said:

so what is the point you are trying to make?  are you saying democrats are better at controlling violent crime than republicans?  

also, you switched from violent crime to murder rate, but who is counting?

I mean, 7 of the top states with the highest violent crime rate are red states as well so yeah both are true. It's the same argument you made that all the crime in red states is due to blue cities. One thing these red states have in common is that they are poor and have loose gun laws. 

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

wait a second...you mean there might be a little more nuance to the issue than red state/blue state?  lol.

Probably as much nuance as it's the blue cities. 

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I mean, 7 of the top states with the highest violent crime rate are red states as well so yeah both are true. It's the same argument you made that all the crime in red states is due to blue cities. One thing these red states have in common is that they are poor and have loose gun laws. 

so i ask you again: what is your point in bringing uo the red state/blue state thing?

are you trying to make a point about gun laws?  about general safety?  about crime?  what is the point?

or are you just trolling archie like usual?

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

so i ask you again: what is your point in bringing uo the red state/blue state thing?

are you trying to make a point about gun laws?  about general safety?  about crime?  what is the point?

or are you just trolling archie like usual?

Democrats are being labeled as weak on crime when red states are the ones with the crime issues. Red states generally have looser gun laws and more access to guns (I've mentioned this before). Red states generally are poorer due to their economy policies. Red states generally have poorer education due to their policies. 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Jackson and Little Rock for example aren't high density cities. San Francisco is the densest city in the country outside of New York. Los Angeles is 6 times as dense as Little Rock. 

Sf and LA are also really high income! LA still has poor areas, prolly more so than SF, but how does the ratio of rich to poor tracts compare to a place like Det? Same arg would apply to NYC, which has poor rough areas, but so much more upscale population that overall crime rates taken over the whole city are never as bad as in a Det where most of city population is poor. 
 

so what I’d be curious about is when you break down an area like Little Rock, are rates higher than in LA in areas of equal income, or does it just come back down to a high proportion of low income areas with rates just like similar income areas elsewhere?

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

Sf and LA are also really high income! LA still has poor areas, prolly more so than SF, but how does the ratio of rich to poor tracts compare to a place like Det? Same arg would apply to NYC, which has poor rough areas, but so much more upscale population that overall crime rates taken over the whole city are never as bad as in a Det where most of city population is poor. 
 

so what I’d be curious about is when you break down an area like Little Rock, are rates higher than in LA in areas of equal income, or does it just come back down to a high proportion of low income areas with rates just like similar income areas elsewhere?

Red states are generally poorer so it's a combination of red state economics, gun policy and education. 

[buddha]

"red states are poorer" has a lot more to do with history (southern agricultural states) than current economic or educational policies.  texas has the same economic and low educational state funding as other states and is booming.  florida too.

crime is mostly a local problem, imo.  why certain areas have more crime than others has to do with local poverty, drug, and gang issues.  i assume that's why a place like chicago has more murders than new york and LA combined (money and local gang policies) while a place like st. louis and new orleans have more per capita than chicago (much poorer with a longer sustained tradition of racism).