RedRamage Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-considering-several-major-rule-changes-for-2023-touchbacks-could-be-modified-on-both-punts-and-kickoffs/ One of the rule changes is do what the XFL and apparently the USFL are doing with regards to an onside kick. Instead of the onside kick the proposal is a 4th and 15 or 4th and 20 from your own 25 yard line. If you convert, you keep the ball. Honestly, I think it's probably easier to do that than the onsides kick so I'd prefer to keep the onside kick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Onside kicks are nearly impossible. It’s a waste. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 i like the rule change. it would be pretty exciting. or perhaps just different? either way, i'm down with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 The question regarding onside kicks rests on how often people think they should convert and what should be valued to achieve it. Only 3% of onside kicks were successful in the regular season. I do think that’s too low. I don’t know if giving teams like the Chiefs (and hopefully the Lions?) an advantage by making it an offensive benchmark is the way to solve that though. I feel like there should be a happy medium with the kickoffs that both results in less injuries and allows for a larger chance of success in onside kicks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: The question regarding onside kicks rests on how often people think they should convert and what should be valued to achieve it. Only 3% of onside kicks were successful in the regular season. I do think that’s too low. I don’t know if giving teams like the Chiefs (and hopefully the Lions?) an advantage by making it an offensive benchmark is the way to solve that though. I feel like there should be a happy medium with the kickoffs that both results in less injuries and allows for a larger chance of success in onside kicks. as an aside, i dont know if there is any evidence that kickoffs lead to more iniuries than any other play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 19 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: The question regarding onside kicks rests on how often people think they should convert and what should be valued to achieve it. Only 3% of onside kicks were successful in the regular season. I do think that’s too low. I don’t know if giving teams like the Chiefs (and hopefully the Lions?) an advantage by making it an offensive benchmark is the way to solve that though. I feel like there should be a happy medium with the kickoffs that both results in less injuries and allows for a larger chance of success in onside kicks. If you want to increase the % of successful onside kicks just make the receiving team line-up further back on the field so the kicking team has a better chance of getting to the 10 yrd point just as quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 28 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: The question regarding onside kicks rests on how often people think they should convert and what should be valued to achieve it. Only 3% of onside kicks were successful in the regular season. I do think that’s too low. I don’t know if giving teams like the Chiefs (and hopefully the Lions?) an advantage by making it an offensive benchmark is the way to solve that though. I feel like there should be a happy medium with the kickoffs that both results in less injuries and allows for a larger chance of success in onside kicks. Wow I did not realize the percentage was that low, I was thinking that it was around 10-15%. I wonder how many of the successful onsides were the completely unexpected variety at various points in the game? If you take those out and only factor in the percentage of obvious onside tries that already low number would probably be even lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 On 3/25/2023 at 5:48 PM, buddha said: as an aside, i dont know if there is any evidence that kickoffs lead to more iniuries than any other play. https://www.nfl.com/news/league-concerned-with-high-injury-rates-on-special-teams 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 On 3/25/2023 at 5:59 PM, RandyMarsh said: Wow I did not realize the percentage was that low, I was thinking that it was around 10-15%. I wonder how many of the successful onsides were the completely unexpected variety at various points in the game? If you take those out and only factor in the percentage of obvious onside tries that already low number would probably be even lower. I actually misstated it. It was 5%, or 3/56 attempts. Still very very low. Braden Mann (NYJ) was a planned onside kick against the Browns. It was perfectly executed, but a Browns player still had a chance at it. Brandon McManus (DEN) was a planned onside kick against the Raiders. It didn’t make it ten yards but a defensive player jumped to catch it and tipped it. Riley Patterson (JAX) was a surprise onside kick against the Chiefs. Patterson himself recovered it. That was it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: I actually misstated it. It was 5%, or 3/56 attempts. Still very very low. So how high would be high enough to make it interesting? 15%? And the thing to remember is that if you push the average to 15%, some teams might individually achieve more than that - for the sake of argument say 25%. I think you want to avoid any team being able to succeed at a rate where they start gambling to not give the ball back after any score anytime in the game. Or not? Edited March 27, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 I would have to imagine the chances of converting 4th and 15 would be higher than 5% when you factor in the refs possibly calling a ticky tack 5 yard defensive holding penalty or something. But in regards to onside kicks, didn't they change the rules a few years back on how teams could line up for them? I seem to recall that and I also seem to recall it being easier to recover back in the day, like it seemed like it happened on a semi regular basis instead of it basically being a Hail Mary like it is today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Just now, RandyMarsh said: I would have to imagine the chances of converting 4th and 15 would I don't like this concept. It's too much 'out of flow'. On onside kick has a tension to it right up to the moment it actually is or isn't attempted. That makes it kind of unique - would like to save that aspect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: So how high would be high enough to make it interesting? 15%? And the thing to remember is that if you push the average to 15%, some teams might individually achieve more than that - for the sake of argument say 25%. I think you want to avoid any team being able to succeed at a rate where they start gambling to not give the ball back after any score anytime in the game. Or not? I’m a nerd. Don’t ask me for solutions, just data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRamage Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 15 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I don't like this concept. It's too much 'out of flow'. On onside kick has a tension to it right up to the moment it actually is or isn't attempted. That makes it kind of unique - would like to save that aspect. I guess that also raises the question: Would this rule eliminate normal onsides kicks or just add the 4th and 15 option? If it eliminates normal onsides kicks then it eliminates surprises onsides kicks too... which I also don't like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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