2023 Detroit Tigers Regular Season Discussion Thread

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Kiermaier and Myers are not impact bats.

well, Kiermaier hadn't been until this year in Toronto at 35. Has anyone checked his hat size?   

[Archie]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

With Cabrera, I do think it's not out of the realm of possibility that he finds himself out of the lineup if he keeps on this current trajectory.. He's prideful and doesn't want to quit, I get that, but there's an inflection point where it may become more prideful to give into reality and gracefully go onto the 60 Day IL.

I don't think we are there yet, but it could happen, particularly if they do kinda remain in shouting distance to first place.

Maybe go on IL after they visit some of teams to get the retirement gifts out of the way. That probably wouldn't happen until after the AS break unless he actually got hurt.

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

The last part is the important part to me, this isn't some 1 or 2 year thing, we are almost to the point where he has had more below average to terrible seasons with us than the great ones we remember. 

Not too many elite players have had this many bad years at the end of their careers?  Pujols came close before surprisingly going out with a bang his final season.  Pete Rose ended poorly, but not this bad.    

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

With Cabrera, I do think it's not out of the realm of possibility that he finds himself out of the lineup if he keeps on this current trajectory.. He's prideful and doesn't want to quit, I get that, but there's an inflection point where it may become more prideful to give into reality and gracefully go onto the 60 Day IL.

I don't think we are there yet, but it could happen, particularly if they do kinda remain in shouting distance to first place.

It's a tricky situation. We're not going to DFA Miggy, and we're not going to simply bench him for long stretches of time. I had thought, even predicted, that the 60-day IL would be likely, but that was based more on his gimpiness than on situational expediency. If he's not injured, and he's not going to leave, and he wants to play, and perhaps most importantly, fans want to see him play—well, he's gonna play. Simple as that.

I also believe that if the Tigers were a serious contender for a playoff spot, Miggy would be playing a lot less, and I think fans would be OK with that (especially fans on the road, which, who gives a **** what they think anyway). The tricky part of that would be mollifying Miggy, and that's where the manager comes in. An unhappy Miggy could/would be a very disruptive force in the clubhouse, so Hinch would have had to set  expectations with him upfront, beginning in spring training. And I've read accounts that he has done that, or at least has claimed to have done it.

So if I had to guess, and this is just a guess, I don't think we are at the point where we can say, OK, we're definitely in the division race, Miggy, so nail yourself to that bench and root us on. If that were to happen at all, it would be the second half of the season, and probably closer to August than July. I think it would be at that point when Miggy's starting assignments would mostly dry up, and his pinch-hitting assignments would come mostly in blowouts (although probably not all of them).

The good news is that we are at the very beginning of the process of remaking this team into an annual contender. It's not as though, if we lose out on the playoffs this season, that's it, the organization is done. Chances are we get better next year and/or the year after than this year, and Miggy will be looooong gone by then. So even if we miss out on the playoffs this season by just a few games at the end, I wouldn't see it as an existentially lost opportunity, and regardless of what you or I or anyone else here would like, A.J. ain't getting fired for it.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

It's a tricky situation.

it basically all comes down to Ilitch not being a strongly competitively motivated owner. If his own inner demons made wins more important to him, what we or Hinch or Miggy think about the situation or the nominal amount of money Cabrera is worth wouldn't matter. C'est la vie.

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Not too many elite players have had this many bad years at the end of their careers?  Pujols came close before surprisingly going out with a bang his final season.  Pete Rose ended poorly, but not this bad.    

We got locked into all of his bad years because of the extension he signed.

Nothing to be done about it except (on my part) to gripe and groan.

A lot.

[SoCalTiger]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Not a few posters here thought TORK! was already done and could never improve.

I had my doubts and actually still do to a lesser extent. We fans tend to over value our own. I try not to do that and after watching for 55 years it’s becoming easier given all the disappointments. 
 

As for Tork I am encouraged but apart from scooping throws his defense is sub par. Fielding grounders and throwing is average at best which is why he failed as a third baseman and he can’t catch foul pop ups for his life. 
As for hitting his goal for me is an .800 OPS as a first baseman and a one one draft pick. He’s far from that despite all the positive press proclaiming he has arrived and is a formidable force in the middle of the order. I am rooting hard for him…for me…but am bracing for a slightly over average player which would be a bummer. 

[1984Echoes]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

And the level of pressure may also depend on Carpenter and possibly Malloy. The alternatives are always a factor.

I think this is a key point.

If Carpenter and/or Malloy, and I'll even toss Parker Meadows out there... forced their way onto Detroit's roster... then a move or two may be contemplated.

My guess is the first move is to DFA Schoop though.

Miggy to the IL will have to wait until the team is cornered (or Miggy actually IL's) for this move.

[1984Echoes]

Just now, SoCalTiger said:

I had my doubts and actually still do to a lesser extent. We fans tend to over value our own. I try not to do that and after watching for 55 years it’s becoming easier given all the disappointments. 
 

As for Tork I am encouraged but apart from scooping throws his defense is sub par. Fielding grounders and throwing is average at best which is why he failed as a third baseman and he can’t catch foul pop ups for his life. 
As for hitting his goal for me is an .800 OPS as a first baseman and a one one draft pick. He’s far from that despite all the positive press proclaiming he has arrived and is a formidable force in the middle of the order. I am rooting hard for him…for me…but am bracing for a slightly over average player which would be a bummer. 

I want to see an .850-.900 OPS from him before I feel fully comfortable with him. That little extra for his meh-fielding...

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Not too many elite players have had this many bad years at the end of their careers?  Pujols came close before surprisingly going out with a bang his final season.  Pete Rose ended poorly, but not this bad.    

Nobody else has. Not even close.

Here all the Hall of Famers at hitting positions (outfield, first base, DH) and how they did in their last seven seasons, sorted by oWAR cumulative for their last seven seasons (min 2,500 PA):

And here's Miggy as of yesterday:

Miggy is setting a new standard for Hall-of-Famer career collapse that will be talked about for generations.

 

[SoCalTiger]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

I want to see an .850-.900 OPS from him before I feel fully comfortable with him. That little extra for his meh-fielding...

That would be great but I have been told here that we “can’t have nice things” and that would indeed be very nice 😊 

[chasfh]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it basically all comes down to Ilitch not being a strongly competitively motivated owner

Because we are not in serious playoff contention yet, they are motivated to recover as much of Miggy's remaining $40 million as possible in merchandise, extra tickets, concessions, parking revenue, and the like as they can. It's all they have left with the guy.

[1984Echoes]

Just now, SoCalTiger said:

That would be great but I have been told here that we “can’t have nice things” and that would indeed be very nice 😊 

Right... so my point being: if that's the BEST that Tork!!! can do is an .800 OPS and he simply can NOT do better than that, and he is NOT a Gold Glove 1st baseman... at that point... doesn't he just become eminently replaceable?

[chasfh]

20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So if I had to guess, and this is just a guess, I don't think we are at the point where we can say, OK, we're definitely in the division race, Miggy, so nail yourself to that bench and root us on. If that were to happen at all, it would be the second half of the season, and probably closer to August than July. I think it would be at that point when Miggy's starting assignments would mostly dry up, and his pinch-hitting assignments would come mostly in blowouts (although probably not all of them).

And the flip side of this is, if we do not move into serious contention, which is the more likely outcome, then I believe we will see as much of Miggy in the last couple of months as we do now, provided he's not actually injured.

[1984Echoes]

Just now, chasfh said:

Because we are not in serious playoff contention yet, they are motivated to recover as much of Miggy's remaining $40 million as possible in merchandise, extra tickets, concessions, parking revenue, and the like as they can. It's all they have left with the guy.

This I understand perfectly. 

I think you've been saying this for the past 2 pages in here, I'm just choosing this post to quote.

I get it.

He's a sunk cost. We are not truly in contention. We get Miggy for a retirement ride. As pathetic as it has been so far.

True Competitiveness. And/or several prospects forcing their way into Detroit (or covering for Miggy if he IL's for a couple weeks or more and the player so dominates that...) the team is "almost" forced to go in a different direction...

Hasn't happened yet.

Until then...

We get Miggy.

[RandyMarsh]

42 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Not too many elite players have had this many bad years at the end of their careers?  Pujols came close before surprisingly going out with a bang his final season.  Pete Rose ended poorly, but not this bad.    

Maybe his numbers weren't as bad as I remember but it felt like Griffey was really bad for several years at the end too.

[chasfh]

47 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

This I understand perfectly. 

I think you've been saying this for the past 2 pages in here, I'm just choosing this post to quote.

I get it.

He's a sunk cost. We are not truly in contention. We get Miggy for a retirement ride. As pathetic as it has been so far.

True Competitiveness. And/or several prospects forcing their way into Detroit (or covering for Miggy if he IL's for a couple weeks or more and the player so dominates that...) the team is "almost" forced to go in a different direction...

Hasn't happened yet.

Until then...

We get Miggy.

You got me right. And I would further stipulate that until the Tigers demonstrate that we are actually in serious contention, It's kind of futile to rant about it, since (a) he is already barely playing these days, and (b) he's not forcing clearly better hitters to sit and make room for him.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Maybe his numbers weren't as bad as I remember but it felt like Griffey was really bad for several years at the end too.

Yeah, Griffey was pretty bad.  Not quite as bad, but fairly close.  

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You got me right. And I would further stipulate that until the Tigers demonstrate that we are actually in serious contention, It's kind of futile to rant about it, since (a) he is already barely playing these days, and (b) he's not forcing clearly better hitters to sit and make room for him.

How far into the season would they need to be within striking distance of first place before you considered them a contender?  

[Toddwert]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

Tapia is a nobody. Kiermaier and Myers are not impact bats.

Haniger was 32 and Conforto was an injured 30 year and they both signed with a team in a super cool west coast city that has a puncher's chance of making the playoffs. Are these guys you'd want to overpay in years and money to get them to come here to agree to come to a losing situation in Detroit instead?

Nimmo is the only guy listed I believe could be reasonably hoped to lead a team into the playoffs. Would you really wanted to have signed him for nine or more years?

 

Oh I’m sorry I forgot this team was loaded with impact bats whatever that means… my point is these guys are better then what crap is on this team

[Toddwert]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

You mean like Jeimer Candelario?

Yeah unless he’s a clubhouse cancer not a great move by Harris

[chasfh]

Here's one more curious thing that strikes me about Miggy: I sense he has done so much damage to his legacy with his terrible performance for seven years running now, having dropped from being at the level of Mike Schmidt and Rickey Henderson, to being at the level of Jim Thome and Harry Heilmann—still Hall of Famers, but certainly not early in the conversation of greatest hitters in history as the first two are. And many of us here have discussed that very thing.

And yet, I have never heard this idea expressed outside of this forum by anyone else. Everyone talks about Miggy not only as though he is on the ten-finger list of greatest hitters ever, but also as though he is still a threat today. I have heard opposing team broadcasters, this season, talk about Miggy coming up in close-and-late situations as someone you have to work around very carefully because if you slip up even a little, he will end the game on one swing. This absolutely floors me, because I know, and you know, and certainly the opposing pitcher knows that all you have to do is pound him in the zone with your regular stuff, no tricks or gimmicks necessary, and he'll either strike out or ground out.

I wonder how much of that is being respectful of his overall career accomplishments, and how much of it is ignorance of his decline among people inside the game, the latter of which would just knock me out if that were true.

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

Oh I’m sorry I forgot this team was loaded with impact bats whatever that means… my point is these guys are better then what crap is on this team

I'm glad we didn't throw four years and $60 million at Mitch Haniger just so he could post a 39 OPS+ for us!

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

How far into the season would they need to be within striking distance of first place before you considered them a contender?  

I said in my earlier post that the point when we can say, OK, we're definitely in the division race would be the second half of the season, and probably closer to August than July, and that would be the point when Miggy's playing time would really start drying up, so I will stick with that.

Edited May 19, 2023 by chasfh

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

I said in my earlier post that the point when we can say, OK, we're definitely in the division race would be the second half of the season, and probably closer to August than July, and that would be the point when Miggy's playing time would really start drying up, so I will stick with that.

OK.  I'd prefer they start getting serious now.  I don't think any team in the division is going to run away this year.  I don't expect the Tigers to contend all year, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.