2023 Detroit Tigers Regular Season Discussion Thread

[gehringer_2]

26 minutes ago, theroundsquare said:

I don't know how insurance for player contracts works; i would think that, when they traded for him, the smart thing to do would be to say, we have this guy for X years, so we need a policy for X years.  If they have to do it a year at a time, you're right, I wouldn't expect that the premium would be worth the coverage 

I question that there is much to gain by trying to insure athletic salaries. Every single team experiences significant injury loss  costs every single year. Thus there isn't much benefit available from risk pooling. Your premiums are not going to be much less than your loss rates without insurance.

Edited June 16, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tigermojo]

Do we even know if Meadows normally travels with the team? I have seen him in the dugout multiple times for home games. Not sure if I've ever seen him on the road.

He may have doctors and care based in Detroit and at home in Florida but for them to travel with the team would be an extra cost.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Tigermojo

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Do we even know if Meadows normally travels with the team? I have seen him in the dugout multiple times for home games. Not sure if I've ever seen him on the road.

He may have doctors and care based in Detroit and at home in Florida but for them to travel with the team would be an extra cost.

I would have to think that even if it was only at home, showing up on game day, working out with the team, then not playing with no discernable plan or timetable would eventually become a source of increased stress even if it seemed like a nice idea for a while at first.

Edited June 16, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tigermojo]

32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I would have to think that even if it was only at home, showing up on game day, working out with the team, then not playing with no discernable plan or timetable would eventually become a source of increased stress even if it seemed like a nice idea for a while at first.

I'm sure the doctors have a plan but it's going to be slow, incremental, achievable goals that take weeks and there could be setbacks. They're going to try to avoid those setbacks as much as possible because that would just lengthen the recovery time. It's going to take time for him to learn to deal with the stress and I'm sure Major League baseball is a very stressful job.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tigermojo said:

I'm sure the doctors have a plan

True - at least we hope! And that's why I qualified it with 'discernable'. The team philosophy, which is different from past regimes, has been to keep guys on long term IL like Turnbull, Mize, Skubal with the team. So with that as the model, it would have seemed logical for Austin to do likewise rather than be singled out. But the guys on physical rehab have a work plan for each day that all the other players see and maybe even partcipate in with them, and milestones that  are getting checked off. Both for confidentiality reasons and logistical reasons that model may not apply so well long term for Austin and I would not be surprised if his docs decided that whatever initial advantage there might have been in him being with the team had run their course.

[chasfh]

I'm almost certain the Tigers do not have injury insurance on Austin Meadows, not only because it's a low-dollar contract, but also because it's only for a single year.

Most insurance deals are for players on rich, multiple-year contracts where the risk of pain in having to eat the remainder of a player's deal after a career-ending injury (CEI) early on is substantial. If a player has an eight-year deal, the insurance is probably offered up in two-year chunks, and the team has to keep re-upping at higher prices as the player ages.

Also, there's usually a waiting period, typically 60 or 90 days but maybe as long as a year, before payment on the policy can kick in, to ensure it is truly career-ending, and even then it covers only a percentage of the dollars on the deal, like maybe 70%.

So, taking Miggy as an example of a 32-year-old guy signing an eight-year deal, it probably happened something like this, and I'm making up the numbers to illustrate: they probably signed an insurance policy for going into the first two years of the deal that covers 70% of the remaining deal in case of a CEI, and they paid maybe 3% of his total eight-year salary for that. Then, after that expires before year three, they sign another two-year policy covering 70% of his remaining six years and paid 4% of his remaining salary; in year five they sign another two-year policy, 70% of his remaining four years, 5%; and year seven, the last two-year policy, 70% of his remaining two years at maybe 7%. That might not be exact, but I think it's close directionally.

But hey, why am I the guy talking about this? @Edman85, how close am I?

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

[Tigeraholic1]

18 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

 

What? The cool kids said his glove is a liability?

[djhutch]

Sorry if this is in the wrong spot, but I haven't been in the Tigers threads much because I don't watch many games.  I dropped the package close to 10 years ago & never added it back again, BUT...

My wife gifted me MLB TV for the rest of the season for Father's Day - & I"m wondering how the blackout rules work.  They were in Minnesota yesterday, but I still couldn't get the live feed of the game.  I ended up watching the replay of Saturday's loss, just because I haven't seen a game in I don't know how long. 

[RandyMarsh]

I know many of the defensive metrics hate Tork's defense but that scooping stat is a big deal to me and arguably the most important thing in my eyes when it comes to defense for a 1B. I think the ability to prevent bad throws from being base hits has a far bigger impact on the game than any balls you potentially don't get to in the field. 

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I know many of the defensive metrics hate Tork's defense but that scooping stat is a big deal to me and arguably the most important thing in my eyes when it comes to defense for a 1B. I think the ability to prevent bad throws from being base hits has a far bigger impact on the game than any balls you potentially don't get to in the field. 

Of course the value varies. If your left side is Adrian Beltre and Alan Trammell, you maybe have to make one tough scoop per week. You are playing opposite a Javy Baez and a Brandon Inge  you are making mulitple per game and it's a pretty huge deal. Right now for the Tigers with the Baez original article and the cast of thousands at 3rd - it's a huge deal.

Edited June 19, 2023 by gehringer_2

[RandyMarsh]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

Of course the value varies. If your left side is Adrian Beltre and Alan Trammel, you maybe have to make one tough scoop per week. You are playing opposite a Javy Baez and a Brandon Inge  you are making mulitple per game and it's a pretty huge deal. Right now for the Tigers with the Baez original article and the cast of thousands at 3rd - it's a huge deal.

Yeah that is true but in general I think it is likely that a 1B that is great at scooping and/or has plus extension but bad fielding range will save more bad throws from base hits than hits they give up due to the range, or at the very least it won't be a major difference. Also even if you get to those balls it's not always a sure out cause guys will often beat the pitcher to the bag on the exchange. 

[CMRivdogs]

3 hours ago, djhutch said:

Sorry if this is in the wrong spot, but I haven't been in the Tigers threads much because I don't watch many games.  I dropped the package close to 10 years ago & never added it back again, BUT...

My wife gifted me MLB TV for the rest of the season for Father's Day - & I"m wondering how the blackout rules work.  They were in Minnesota yesterday, but I still couldn't get the live feed of the game.  I ended up watching the replay of Saturday's loss, just because I haven't seen a game in I don't know how long. 

This is probably what your looking for. 

https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/blackout-mobile

[djhutch]

23 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

This is probably what your looking for. 

https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/blackout-mobile

Ugh. That explains it .. I guess it's game replays.

[Edman85]

On 6/16/2023 at 3:41 PM, chasfh said:

I'm almost certain the Tigers do not have injury insurance on Austin Meadows, not only because it's a low-dollar contract, but also because it's only for a single year.

Most insurance deals are for players on rich, multiple-year contracts where the risk of pain in having to eat the remainder of a player's deal after a career-ending injury (CEI) early on is substantial. If a player has an eight-year deal, the insurance is probably offered up in two-year chunks, and the team has to keep re-upping at higher prices as the player ages.

Also, there's usually a waiting period, typically 60 or 90 days but maybe as long as a year, before payment on the policy can kick in, to ensure it is truly career-ending, and even then it covers only a percentage of the dollars on the deal, like maybe 70%.

So, taking Miggy as an example of a 32-year-old guy signing an eight-year deal, it probably happened something like this, and I'm making up the numbers to illustrate: they probably signed an insurance policy for going into the first two years of the deal that covers 70% of the remaining deal in case of a CEI, and they paid maybe 3% of his total eight-year salary for that. Then, after that expires before year three, they sign another two-year policy covering 70% of his remaining six years and paid 4% of his remaining salary; in year five they sign another two-year policy, 70% of his remaining four years, 5%; and year seven, the last two-year policy, 70% of his remaining two years at maybe 7%. That might not be exact, but I think it's close directionally.

But hey, why am I the guy talking about this? @Edman85, how close am I?

Out of pocket most of the weekend, just seeing this. A lot of the insurance policies teams take out against players are not public, so it would be pure guessing and speculation. I want to say Kevin Goldstein put something on Fangraphs about it in the time between his employment with the Astros and Twins, but I don't remember.

[RandyMarsh]

Luis Arraez currently 5-5 to push his BA to an even .400 on the year, amazing! 

[bobrob2004]

7 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I know many of the defensive metrics hate Tork's defense but that scooping stat is a big deal to me and arguably the most important thing in my eyes when it comes to defense for a 1B. I think the ability to prevent bad throws from being base hits has a far bigger impact on the game than any balls you potentially don't get to in the field. 

He likely gets more chances at getting scoops because of Baez' weak arm, though.  

It's similar to how a poor outfielder can get a lot of runners thrown out because everyone runs on him.   

[bobrob2004]

7 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah that is true but in general I think it is likely that a 1B that is great at scooping and/or has plus extension but bad fielding range will save more bad throws from base hits than hits they give up due to the range, or at the very least it won't be a major difference. Also even if you get to those balls it's not always a sure out cause guys will often beat the pitcher to the bag on the exchange. 

If that were true, I think his defense would be better ranked than 20 out of 21.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

He likely gets more chances at getting scoops because of Baez' weak arm

I wouldn't call Javy's arm weak, just wild. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

14 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Luis Arraez currently 5-5 to push his BA to an even .400 on the year, amazing! 

That trade with the Twins was so old school.  Established player for another (Pablo Lopez).  Reminds me of Ron LeFlore for Dan Schatzeder or Jason Thompson for Al Cowens.

[RandyMarsh]

12 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

That trade with the Twins was so old school.  Established player for another (Pablo Lopez).  Reminds me of Ron LeFlore for Dan Schatzeder or Jason Thompson for Al Cowens.

Yep I totally miss trades like that. Nowadays seemingly in all sports all trades are either prospects for vets or salary relief type trades.

[Tiger337]

39 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

That trade with the Twins was so old school.  Established player for another (Pablo Lopez).  Reminds me of Ron LeFlore for Dan Schatzeder or Jason Thompson for Al Cowens.

While I disliked both the Leflore and Thompson trades at the time, I definitely miss thoses types of deals.  Now, it seems like every trade is some wealthy team trading it's non-favoriote prospects for an expensive veteran.  

Edited June 20, 2023 by Tiger337

[oblong]

at the game last night when Miggy got his hits, there was obviously extended cheering and all that and I started to think about his final at bats.  Assuming he doesn't get hurt and makes it to the end, it will be quite a moment to watch.  When you look at the ticket availability for his final few games there's a lot of tickets already sold so I expect a good crowd to give him an ovation.

Then there's the pitch clock to ruin it.   Maybe he will call time and then the P or C will call time as well?   And hopefully there's a gentleman's agreement that he gets nothing but cheese.

 

[SeattleMike]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

While I disliked both the Leflore and Thompson trades at the time, I definitely miss thoses types of deals.  Now, it seems like every trade is some wealthy team trading it's non-favoriote prospects for an expensive veteran.  

My favorite trade in this category was Steve Kemp for Chet Lemon. I wasn't crazy about it at the time, but it turned out well for the Tigers. I believe Kemp suffered an injury a year or two later and was never the same. 

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

My favorite trade in this category was Steve Kemp for Chet Lemon. I wasn't crazy about it at the time, but it turned out well for the Tigers. I believe Kemp suffered an injury a year or two later and was never the same. 

One of their best trades ever.