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2023 Detroit Tigers Regular Season Discussion Thread


oblong

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47 minutes ago, oblong said:

I'm fine with just paying him to leave.  He's hurting the team. 

 

Yeah, he’s a sunk contract, but I’d bring him back for another season to see if he can turn it around.  At worst, he’s a very expensive defender at SS.  Not sure Kreidler is any better, and no other SS in the org is close.  Let’s hope we have a decision to make when McGonigle is ready (and can stay at SS).

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13 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

.05% is way too high.

Probably. But what is certainly true is that by now, it's clear that whatever the Tiger coaching staff has tried to offer Javy has been a total failure. Given that there has been at least some reportage that he is not an un-coachable player, maybe he does see getting out of Detroit into an org that may offer him some kind of help he can use as his only route to future success, because on the other hand, if I'm a player is also seems clear that Detroit is committed to what it believes and if it's not working for you, you must be the problem.

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15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Probably. But what is certainly true is that by now, it's clear that whatever the Tiger coaching staff has tried to offer Javy has been a total failure. Given that there has been at least some reportage that he is not an un-coachable player, maybe he does see getting out of Detroit into an org that may offer him some kind of help he can use as his only route to future success, because on the other hand, if I'm a player is also seems clear that Detroit is committed to what it believes and if it's not working for you, you must be the problem.

Hey Dummy! Stop swinging at the outside slider for the love of Peet!!!!! 🤣

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29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

... whatever the Tiger coaching staff has tried to offer Javy has been a total failure. ... maybe he does see getting out of Detroit into an org that may offer him some kind of help he can use as his only route to future success...

I would state it less like this...

And more along the lines of "these guys don't love me anymore".

Which is closer to your last sentence I think... but more personal. "These guys don't want me anymore." Because of the new Org philosophy... of commanding the strike zone and Baez... sort of doesn't. (trying to be kind here...).

But if he doesn't think he can get his money back, or more, by opting out, then money probably trumps all other considerations.

Then... he is probably thinking: "They're just gonna have to deal with me the way that I am. It's a signed contract."

Based on that... I think the % he opts out is as close to zero as possible without hitting zero (I hate absolutes... sometimes), like 0.0001%.

 

 

 

Edited by 1984Echoes
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45 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Hey Dummy! Stop swinging at the outside slider for the love of Peet!!!!! 🤣

The sad part with Javy is that despite whatever the Tigers want him to do or are or are not effectively helping him to do, since he has come to the Tigers it's his Z-swing % which down and his O-swing has hardly changed at all. He not swinging fewer bad pitches but swinging at significantly fewer good ones, which could be why he's a less productive hitter now. It appears possible that whatever effort he is making at being more selective is simply resulting in taking more called strikes.

That said, O and Z swing rates don't tell you whether the contact made was successful or not - so large grain of salt.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/javier-baez/12979/stats?position=2B/SS

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

The sad part with Javy is that despite whatever the Tigers want him to do or are or are not effectively helping him to do, since he has come to the Tigers it's his Z-swing % which down and his O-swing has hardly changed at all. He not swinging fewer bad pitches but swinging at significantly fewer good ones, which could be why he's a less productive hitter now. It appears possible that whatever effort he is making at being more selective is simply resulting in taking more called strikes.

That said, O and Z swing rates don't tell you whether the contact made was successful or not - so large grain of salt.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/javier-baez/12979/stats?position=2B/SS

Um, swear I typed Harvey but must have fat fingered and autocorrected to Dummy. 

Yeah, it seems to be more mental thing for him than physical.

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14 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I don’t understand why he doesn’t at least move up on the plate. 

I know, right? Javy is back so far that not only is he vulnerable to the slide a foot off the plate, he might even be vulnerable to the slide that would clip the corner.

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17 hours ago, chasfh said:

If it’s really only about the money and he doesn’t care at all about being miserable for another four years, Javy will stick around.

He'll be more miserable if he has to settle for a one-year contract with incentives.  Why would any team offer him more than that? 

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I brought it up in another post but aside from a couple dominant months in 2021 Javy has basically been below replacement level at the plate since pre pandemic so this isn't some 1 or 1 and a half year slump like say a Bellinger had where a team might believe that it is indeed just a bad stretch.

We're talking 4 years now where the overwhelming majority of the time he has been down right terrible so if he were to opt out I don't see a team offering him anything more than a 1 year incentive laden or low dollar amount contract. 

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5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

He'll be more miserable if he has to settle for a one-year contract with incentives.  Why would any team offer him more than that? 

Agree that no team would offer him more than that now, but would he actually be more miserable on a one-year incentive-laden contract, on a different team, in what's basically his last chance to try to rebuild his career to his liking? I'm not so sure about that. I'd bet if he got wind that Miami would like to sign him to one, he'd be sorely tempted to opt out and take it.

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4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Agree that no team would offer him more than that now, but would he actually be more miserable on a one-year incentive-laden contract, on a different team, in what's basically his last chance to try to rebuild his career to his liking? I'm not so sure about that. I'd bet if he got wind that Miami would like to sign him to one, he'd be sorely tempted to opt out and take it.

I will say that the probably of him opting out is higher tham the .05% someone suggested.  Human decisions always have higher probabilities than that!  But it is still low.  

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6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I will say that the probably of him opting out is higher tham the .05% someone suggested.  Human decisions always have higher probabilities than that!  But it is still low.  

Yes, I agree it is very low. Ninety-eight million guaranteed dollars is a lot to walk away from. Although, having already banked $70 million, experienced the joy of winning with the Cubs versus the misery of failing with the Tigers, and lost people who were very close to him, including a grandfather just this month and a sister who had spinal bifida a few years ago, I could see Javier Baez putting more weight on the happiness/personal fulfillment side of the scale versus the money side than the average ballplayer might. I guess we'll see in November ...

Edited by chasfh
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4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Yes, I agree it is very low. Ninety-eight million guaranteed dollars is a lot to walk away from. Although, having already banked $70 million, experienced the joy of winning with the Cubs versus the misery of failing with the Tigers, and lost people who were very close to him, including a grandfather just this month and a sister who had spinal bifida a few years ago, I could see Javier Baez putting more weight on the happiness/personal fulfillment side of the scale versus the money side than the average ballplayer might. I guess we'll see in November ...

all true. And the other thing we don't really have any insight into is the frustration level between javy, the coaching staff, and Hinch. They may all still be fine and just disappointed in the outcomes, or they could all be well into a blame game dynamic and done with each other, which would play a part.

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