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Posted (edited)
  On 4/11/2023 at 4:20 PM, RedRamage said:

So you're saying there's a chance?

... while in 9 games we have 27/62. That's a projecting winning percentage of ...

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I want to look at this season like 2021.

I expect that changes will be made, and this team may look different at the end of each month versus the beginning.

I expect that some things will catch, some players will heat up, and some will fall to the wayside, etc...

So... in light of my expectations... I want to see where we are at after our 33rd game; which in 2021 was May 7th. At that point we were 9-24, with 104 runs scored for, and 174 against. And then we started playing better after some player swaps...

May 7th-ish is when I will re-evaluate where we are, what we've done in the way of sifting through players, adjustments, heat-ups or fall-off-a-cliffs... etc.

 

 

Edited by 1984Echoes
Posted
  On 4/11/2023 at 12:50 AM, Jim Cowan said:

Ha ha I remember reading a review at the time, Playboy probably, wondering what Helen Mirren was doing "slumming" in Caligula.

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There was part of me that thinks Hellen Mirren might have been a freak even if she seemed kinda demur.  

Posted
  On 4/11/2023 at 9:16 PM, mtutiger said:

The first three are pretty iffy, Grandy man was pretty damn good tho

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MCS specified All-Stars, and these four guys were all named to the All-Star team while they were still Tigers, and all four after Fryman.

Know who wasn't? Nick Castellanos.

Posted
  On 4/11/2023 at 9:49 PM, chasfh said:

MCS specified All-Stars, and these four guys were all named to the All-Star team while they were still Tigers, and all four after Fryman.

Know who wasn't? Nick Castellanos.

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His post was not that specific 

Posted (edited)
  On 4/11/2023 at 10:40 PM, mtutiger said:

His post was not that specific 

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That's how I interpreted it—or misinterpreted it, if you prefer—so OK, I'll concede.

If we're going to offer up one-time position-player All-Star-with-another-team Nick Castellanos as counterpoints to the original post, then we might as well offer up one-time position player All-Stars-with-other-teams Eugenio Suarez, Avisail Garcia, and James McCann as well, and, probably this year, Willy Adames.

Edited by chasfh
Posted
  On 4/11/2023 at 9:16 PM, mtutiger said:

The first three are pretty iffy, Grandy man was pretty damn good tho

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Fick wasn't much.  Inge (no matter how much people hated his personality) and Avila both had pretty solid careers.  You'd have to consider both of them pluses in terms of player development.   

Posted
  On 4/11/2023 at 6:27 PM, 1984Echoes said:

I want to look at this season like 2021.

I expect that changes will be made, and this team may look different at the end of each month versus the beginning.

I expect that some things will catch, some players will heat up, and some will fall to the wayside, etc...

So... in light of my expectations... I want to see where we are at after our 33rd game; which in 2021 was May 7th. At that point we were 9-24, with 104 runs scored for, and 174 against. And then we started playing better after some player swaps...

May 7th-ish is when I will re-evaluate where we are, what we've done in the way of sifting through players, adjustments, heat-ups or fall-off-a-cliffs... etc.

 

 

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So much of 2021 was based on a flukey good bullpen.  Maybe, it wasn't luck.  Maybe it was Fetter's influence, but the improved record in 2021 was largely because of the bullpen.  So far, their bullpen looks like garbage.  

Posted
  On 4/11/2023 at 11:28 PM, Tiger337 said:

So much of 2021 was based on a flukey good bullpen.  Maybe, it wasn't luck.  Maybe it was Fetter's influence, but the improved record in 2021 was largely because of the bullpen.  So far, their bullpen looks like garbage.  

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Still lots of time to apply Fetter magic...

And different pitchers...

Different pitchers just might help a wee little bit...

Posted
  On 4/11/2023 at 11:13 PM, chasfh said:

That's how I interpreted it—or misinterpreted it, if you prefer—so OK, I'll concede.

If we're going to offer up one-time position-player All-Star-with-another-team Nick Castellanos as counterpoints to the original post, then we might as well offer up one-time position player All-Stars-with-other-teams Eugenio Suarez, Avisail Garcia, and James McCann as well, and, probably this year, Willy Adames.

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For sure... they drafted and developed Castellonos, so he counts in my book. But others MMV

Posted
  On 4/12/2023 at 12:23 AM, mtutiger said:

For sure... they drafted and developed Castellonos, so he counts in my book. But others MMV

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I agree that their careers were not the equal of Nick, but they were all named All Stars, and I know that was the criterion MCS established.

Posted
  On 4/10/2023 at 5:40 PM, Tiger337 said:

Making projections after the first 9 games of the season is only slighty better than making projections after spring training. 

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Can we do after 10 games?  Because I am feeling that the team isn't going to get any better anytime soon.

Posted
  On 4/10/2023 at 2:04 PM, RedRamage said:

I sincerely hope that this is just yet another slow start for the Tigers.  I sincerely hope that in a few weeks y'all will be making fun of me for even thinking that a thread like this tracking the two years was necessary.  I really, really hope that...

Through 9 games:

2003: 0-9, R = 9, RA = 14, pW/L = 1-8
2023: 2-7, R = 27, RA = 62, pW/L = 0-9

For Pythagorean Theorem, I'm using this formula from Baseball-Reference: W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.81]/[(Runs Scored)^1.81 + (Runs Allowed)^1.81] 

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Double check those 2003 numbers. I got 14 runs, 54 allowed.

Posted
  On 4/12/2023 at 11:01 PM, Edman85 said:

Double check those 2003 numbers. I got 14 runs, 54 allowed.

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D'oh!  Yeah, my sheet has 14 and 54 as well.  I just looked at the completely wrong columns:

image.png.888437d3367dafe882580c6c721ce69a.png

The calculation of winning percentage and projected record is still accurate, I just copied down the wrong columns when making the post.

Posted
  On 4/10/2023 at 2:04 PM, RedRamage said:

Through 9 games:

2003: 0-9, R = 14, RA = 54, pW/L = 1-8
2023: 2-7, R = 27, RA = 62, pW/L = 0-9

For Pythagorean Theorem, I'm using this formula from Baseball-Reference: W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.81]/[(Runs Scored)^1.81 + (Runs Allowed)^1.81] 

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Through 14 games:

2003: 1-13, R = 26, RA = 76, pW/L = 2-12
2023: 5-9, R = 50, RA = 87, pW/L = 4-10

A projected winning percentage of .268 would give us 43 wins. Interesting side note in 2003 our projected wpct was .306, which should have given us ~50 wins.

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