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2023 Michigan Football


djhutch

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There was about a 5 minute stretch where Michigan's wpa dropped below 50% in the Bama game but other than that every minute of every game Michigan's win probability was completely in their favor and to me that is the most impressive thing about the undefeated season.

They were virtually never in any dire trouble of losing at any point outside of 5 minutes. Just always in complete control. 

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thinking about the playoffs, i was surprised they beat bama and was surprised they didnt beat washington by more.

their aversion to letting jj run or using play action allowed washington's defense to load the box with 8 guys after the first quarter.  it wasnt until they needed a drive in the late third/early fourth before they finally started to use jj.

in fairness, all i hear is that jj was hurt.

i think they could have (and should have) dominated washington.  their defense cant hang with michigan's running game unless they completely sell out.

otoh, i'm glad they didnt play texas because that team was built to beat michigan's offense.  they would have been there too if sarkisian was smart enough to run the ball...

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56 minutes ago, buddha said:

thinking about the playoffs, i was surprised they beat bama and was surprised they didnt beat washington by more.

their aversion to letting jj run or using play action allowed washington's defense to load the box with 8 guys after the first quarter.  it wasnt until they needed a drive in the late third/early fourth before they finally started to use jj.

in fairness, all i hear is that jj was hurt.

i think they could have (and should have) dominated washington.  their defense cant hang with michigan's running game unless they completely sell out.

otoh, i'm glad they didnt play texas because that team was built to beat michigan's offense.  they would have been there too if sarkisian was smart enough to run the ball...

Once they jumped to the lead I think  it was a conscious decision to keep it as close to the vest as they could for as long as they could. Once it started looking like the likelihood of UW tying it up was growing, they opened it up just enough with JJ. He may not have been 100% but he was moving well and throwing the ball fine so I don't buy that they needed to have gone quite so turtle.  Maybe they were worried he would be mistake prone because of whatever, but in the end  you have to let you best players play and let the chips fall where they will because you sure won't win without them.

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Once they jumped to the lead I think  it was a conscious decision to keep it as close to the vest as they could for as long as they could. Once it started looking like the likelihood of UW tying it up was growing, they opened it up just enough with JJ. He may not have been 100% but he was moving well and throwing the ball fine so I don't buy that they needed to have gone quite so turtle.  Maybe they were worried he would be mistake prone because of whatever, but in the end  you have to let you best players play and let the chips fall where they will because you sure won't win without them.

I wish they would have gone all out for at least one more score. If they had a three touchdown lead, I think you can play it strategically a little bit. Fourteen points (and then 7) is just too close for comfort. One mistake away from a completely different ballgame.

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14 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I wish they would have gone all out for at least one more score. If they had a three touchdown lead, I think you can play it strategically a little bit. Fourteen points (and then 7) is just too close for comfort. One mistake away from a completely different ballgame.

I think they did got all out for one more score but got stopped on 4th down and then subsequently gave up a TD right before the half. Their first 2 TD’s were 40+ yard runs. So going for it on 4th there was the equivalent of going all out for this team.

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1 hour ago, romad1 said:

My work colleague is driving all night tonight to get to Ann Arbor (he got tickets to the celebration at Crisler) and will return to Northern VA by time of the Lions game because he has to work on Monday.

Hope he has a good vehicle for the snow. It's coming down in sheets.

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16 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The best argument for Harbaugh to stay:  "Jim you could be the firebrand that gets these kids paid for all this violence and danger".

"jim, you'll be suspended for next season and get michigan a post-season ban."

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7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Will Howard is a big question mark.  I like McCord better.  

I was about to say the same thing. They'll only go as far as Howard will take them, which methinks may be a 12-team playoff appearance but not much more when it comes to beating the top tier of the SEC.

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JJ needs to leave.  I’ve heard some call him a “possible” 1st round pick and that is ridiculous.  The way this league gushes over QB’s, he’s a top 10 pick right now and probably much higher into the top 5.   The UM offense doesn’t do much to highlight his pro skills either.  He’d start his NFL clock a year earlier and most likely improve his development.  He would be taking a huge risk to come back.  

For almost the exact opposite reasons,  Donovan Edwards needs to stay.   As I mentioned a while back,  Will Johnson needs to find a few lawyers to challenge the NFL draft rules and see if enough time has passed to break down that door.  He’s a top 5 pick now and is forced to come back.  
 

 

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If JJ does leave,  what is UM plan at QB next year? Is it Orji uncontested or are their other options?  Not sure if anyone quality is available in the portal still but there is another window in May after spring ball.  

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50 minutes ago, buddha said:

have you seen all the players coming back for ohio state?  theyre going to be a juggernaut next year.

Supposedly, per the twitters Stephen Ross has opened up his checkbook for the NIL effort to keep the guys we think might stay.  I think with Donovan and JJ and maybe Rod Moore and while retaining Grant/Mason and Will Johnson we should be able to counter OSU.

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27 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

JJ needs to leave.  I’ve heard some call him a “possible” 1st round pick and that is ridiculous.  The way this league gushes over QB’s, he’s a top 10 pick right now and probably much higher into the top 5.   The UM offense doesn’t do much to highlight his pro skills either.  He’d start his NFL clock a year earlier and most likely improve his development.  He would be taking a huge risk to come back.  

For almost the exact opposite reasons,  Donovan Edwards needs to stay.   As I mentioned a while back,  Will Johnson needs to find a few lawyers to challenge the NFL draft rules and see if enough time has passed to break down that door.  He’s a top 5 pick now and is forced to come back.  
 

 

JJ is actually undersized and weight for an NFL QB.  His people have told him that he needs to build up his resiliency before he goes pro unless he ends up in a perfect understudy situation.

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38 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I was about to say the same thing. They'll only go as far as Howard will take them, which methinks may be a 12-team playoff appearance but not much more when it comes to beating the top tier of the SEC.

ebuka is back, the whole d line is back.  their corners are back.

theyre loaded.  i expect them to go undefeated.

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35 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

If JJ does leave,  what is UM plan at QB next year? Is it Orji uncontested or are their other options?  Not sure if anyone quality is available in the portal still but there is another window in May after spring ball.  

plunder washington?

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