2023 NFL Draft As-It-Happens

[RedRamage]

36 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I don't want to sound crazy, but you think they are so excited trying to exude Job Security since Mrs. Ford was there? Maybe the over-reaction so they can convince Mrs. Ford they got a steal....... 🤣

I honestly don't know if Dan Campbell could act that well.

[Motown Bombers]

Campbell has a higher RAS than Curry who a sizeable number of people wanted to draft over Stafford. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[sagnam]

11 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Look at the grades of the players not the rankings. Again it has been said for months that the guys from 10-40ish are very similar and can almost be interchangeable. It's just that somebody has got to be 10 and somebody 40 even though they are almost equal players. 

So if there are 9 players that are a cut above the rest and you have the 6th pick why move back to 12?  If 10-40 are all basically interchangeable then it seems like the 12th pick has almost the same value as the 34th pick. Are 2 second tier players better than 1 top tier? Gibbs had never been in the top 10 discussion so it’s not like the Lions played chess here. Same with Campbell.

Edited April 28, 2023 by sagnam

[lordstanley]

13 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

No, we don't know what they big board was. But we do know what the conscious big board was and it didn't have these guys rated as high. So, the question then is this:

Were all the media talking heads wrong? Was all the insider information lies or deceptions? I mean these guys are professionals at their jobs as well. They have contacts, they have scoops, they have experience... they don't have the same info that front offices do and they obviously don't have perfect knowledge in how all 32 teams have ranked players, but they also have more knowledge, insight, and experience than your average internet message board poster. So yeah, it's possible they were all wrong, but it's also more likely that they weren't.

Well, do Holmes and co know something that 31 NFL teams don't? Maybe, but this seems unlikely too. Time will tell of course.

I don't think it's out of line at all to be wary of picks that seem to be reaches, and I don't think anyone here is saying that Holmes suddenly got stupid in the last month. Some of us are just worried that he may have overreached... maybe.

Good post. I think there are reasons to like or dislike the picks, but I find it funny when I hear people say "I"ll trust the GM because he is the expert who knows way more about football than you do". Well, duh, of course he knows more than I do. I'm not his peer, he's not competing against me. The question is whether he knows more than the other 31 GMs, that's what matters.

[MichiganCardinal]

The real question is how will Gibbs and Jamo decide who wears #1?

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, lordstanley said:

Good post. I think there are reasons to like or dislike the picks, but I find it funny when I hear people say "I"ll trust the GM because he is the expert who knows way more about football than you do". Well, duh, of course he knows more than I do. I'm not his peer, he's not competing against me. The question is whether he knows more than the other 31 GMs, that's what matters.

Given Holmes short track record, I say he knows more than most of the other GMs. That's where the trust comes from. His picks that have managed to stay healthy have met or exceeded expectations. 

[kdog]

We always wonder why our teams are stuck in perpetual rebuilding status. It's when they start doing dumb stuff.

[Stanley70]

They still desperately need a 3T, so it may be Benton. But their board clearly does not align with the pundits and they are drafting according to their board, and not need.

Personally i like Campbell and Gibbs, I just hate the thought of losing out on a potential multi year probowler at a position of need in Carter. And a shutdown corner in Gonzales. 

Campbell and Gibbs feel like the safe picks with lower ceilings and higher floors as far as overall impact.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

28 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Assuming the Steelers will take Joey Porter Jr.   Who is the pick at 34?   I think it may be either Avila or Torrence.    Branch, Mingo, or Benton are all good bets too.   There are still so many good CB left on the board that I think they can wait until one of the other 2 picks.  

Getting the 2nd best RB, and top LB and IOL in the draft would be a great first 3 picks.  

Probably Michael Mayer just to take one last parting shot at me and my week. I'd like to see a DT taken at 34 like Keeanu Benton or Siaki Ika. I wouldn't be against the CB Kelee Ringo either.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Mr.TaterSalad

[MichiganCardinal]

I will still question the trade over picking Bijan at #6, but on reflection, I do think Gibbs/Montgomery makes more sense than Robinson/Montgomery.

Gibbs and Monty compliment each other really well. Gibbs is the Swiss Army knife out of the backfield who will be a nightmare for opposing linebackers to cover. Monty is a bruising back who will run between the tackles and be a pain in opponent’s ass to bring down. Bijan is more of a Montgomery+. Given where they were drafted as well, I think Gibbs has a legitimate chance to have a better career.

I think Campbell is going to be a fan favorite and may become the top selling jersey with a good rookie season.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RedRamage]

17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The consensus is that Gibbs was the second best RB in the draft and Campbell the best LB. The issue appears to be the Lions drafted two positions higher than people feel they should have. It's not like they took Campbell over another LB who was rated higher. 

That's a semi-valid rebuttal. I think it is worth noting this.  The counter might be that the available best available CB was better than the best available RB, but then you also have to consider if what other CBs or RBs there were along with how much the team needed one vs. the other and well... now the waters are pretty muddy and who's to say right now what the right decision was... let's check back in 2027 and see.

[lordstanley]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Given Holmes short track record, I say he knows more than most of the other GMs. That's where the trust comes from. His picks that have managed to stay healthy have met or exceeded expectations. 

True. And I give Yzerman that same leeway for now. So my post didn't name Holmes or Yzerman specifically.

[kdog]

Pretty clear they did not like the edge players or corners after Witherspoon and Anderson were gone.

I disagree strongly with the positional value of the players they took. But all you have to do is win a terrible division and establish more credibility. Nobody cares unless you fail.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Reaches according to who?    The guys running the Lions didn't think so.  Those are the ones that count and they know a hell of a lot more than any writer.     They got the guys they wanted.    The quickness that they have changed the momentum of this organization, I am going to trust them until they give me a reason not to trust them.  

according to the consensus "big board" that comes out every year before the draft.  the consensus is usually more accurate and teams that take players that go way off it usually dont work out.

guys usually fall for a reason: usually health.  guys that are considered reaches usually dont pan out.

with that said, there are exceptions to those rules and holmes has probably earned the right to be given the benefit of the doubt when he "reaches."

 

[buddha]

55 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

infamously, lots of talking heads said Chris Spielman was a reach at 29 (2nd rounder then)

for now, both BH and Campbell deserve the benefit of the doubt

counterpoint: jordan dizon.

but i agree that holmes deserves the benefit of the doubt.  even if i reserve the right to overreact when he takes a tight end at the top of round 3.  🙂

[RandyMarsh]

I don't think the guys they took were necessarily reaches in terms of the players ability, people just think they're reaches based off of position value so I think that makes it different. 

Gibbs was the consensus number 2 back and best available and Campbell was either 1A or 1B at his position.

That means if you really wanted them theres a good chance you were gonna have to use a 1st on them cause all it would've took was 1 team to decide they want that position and they would've been gone. Its obvious the Lions didn't want to take that chance and wait till the 2nd rd to try to get them. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

counterpoint: jordan dizon.

but i agree that holmes deserves the benefit of the doubt.  even if i reserve the right to overreact when he takes a tight end at the top of round 3.  🙂

Was Dizon considered the best LB available at the time? 

[Shinzaki]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

counterpoint: jordan dizon.

but i agree that holmes deserves the benefit of the doubt.  even if i reserve the right to overreact when he takes a tight end at the top of round 3.  🙂

Jordan Dizon was a midget...Campbell is almost the size of an edge DE

[MichiganCardinal]

20 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

That's a semi-valid rebuttal. I think it is worth noting this.  The counter might be that the available best available CB was better than the best available RB, but then you also have to consider if what other CBs or RBs there were along with how much the team needed one vs. the other and well... now the waters are pretty muddy and who's to say right now what the right decision was... let's check back in 2027 and see.

This. I'm pretty sure that they will take a defensive back today. Maybe even two. Based on what they've said I don't think this was the case, but if your overly simplistic Madden ratings look like this:

RB: 99 / 96 / 74 / 72 / 70 ...

CB: 98 / 97 / 95 / 90 / 88 / 85 / 85 / 85 / 82 ...

And you have the choice between the 96 RB or the 97 CB, it probably makes more sense to take the only remaining really good RB, because you can certainly get an 80-something corner later on.

[RatkoVarda]

Defense

Offense

 

[RandyMarsh]

4 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Defense

Offense

 

I would love Turner, Benton and Tillman.

[Jason_R]

Jordan Dizon. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Campbell may have been overdrafted but if his comps are Vander Esch and Kuechly, it’s probably OK. 

Again, maybe they didn’t get “positional value,” but they got the best athletes at their respective positions. 

Once Jaymo is back, Detroit will be the fastest show on turf. 

[Jason_R]

 

[Motown Bombers]

I'm also interested to see the impact Campbell has on Anzalone. Anzalone no longer has to be the best LB for the Lions. I almost get Tahir Whitehead vibes with Anzalone. Whitehead played fine when he was a SAM LB but move him to MIKE and he struggled.