Investing

[Tiger337]

The first piece of financial advice I would give any young person is don't pay for financial advice.  

[Screwball]

Financial people can be very useful.  I have talked to my broker (funny they call them that) to help me find the kind of investments I am looking for.  For example, bonds; duration, type, and risk.

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, Screwball said:

Financial people can be very useful.  I have talked to my broker (funny they call them that) to help me find the kind of investments I am looking for.  For example, bonds; duration, type, and risk.

yeah, I was being cynical.  If you can find somebody you trust, then great.  I had somebody like that for a while and he helped.  Then he moved to a different firm and I could see that they were pushing him to sell stuff and he became less helpful.   

[Screwball]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

yeah, I was being cynical.  If you can find somebody you trust, then great.  I had somebody like that for a while and he helped.  Then he moved to a different firm and I could see that they were pushing him to sell stuff and he became less helpful.   

That's the problem.  Too many places push things they are paid (more) to push.  It's hard to avoid, which if you can do it yourself, you are better off.  That is a lot of work and time.  My broker account has screeners to help.  They do, but still a lot of time and study to find what you want.  Investing of any type is a lot of work.

[1984Echoes]

One of the answers to "where are we going to get the lithium and rare earth metals that we need for future industry" is in our own back yard:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/large-deposit-rare-elements-minerals-090500796.html

 

With a very huge caveat that these potential windfalls need to get past the local & other environmental/ zoning laws. In these cases, I do not mind pushing for federal government interference due to national security concerns... although I do not believe that that will be a winning argument with anyone...

[Deleterious]

I imagine it was always going to come to this.

Biden Calls on Congress to Pass Legislation to Avert Rail Shutdown

[oblong]

If the issue is simply paid sick days that seems like small potatoes to cause such a disruption. 

[Deleterious]

36 minutes ago, oblong said:

If the issue is simply paid sick days that seems like small potatoes to cause such a disruption. 

The schedule seems to be the big sticking point. They get worked like dogs.

[Deleterious]

Good article explaining the rail strike.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/11/rail-strike-why-the-railroads-wont-give-in-on-paid-leave-psr-precision-scheduled-railroading.html

 

[oblong]

this is why things are... messed up. 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

this is why things are... messed up. 

Not messed up.

Not as long as inflation is an issue:

Strong jobs report = persistent inflation = potential for more interest rate hikes = stock market down.

If inflation were not an issue, then:

Strong jobs report = strong economy/ more spending/ more profits = stock market up.

It's almost like an algebraic or algorithmic statement.

[chasfh]

Russ doesn't seem to mind the report, so far at least ...

[Deleterious]

Yeah it's really backwards. The Fed had said they want wages to go down and unemployment to go up. Which seems dumb but that is how to stop inflation, unfortunately.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Deleterious

[Deleterious]

I feel bad for those rail unions. Pay all those dues and your one pressure point is taken away from you.

And I don't blame Congress for that. You can't punish 350m people for 100,000 workers. But why can't Congress stick it to the railroads instead of the workers? 

 

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

this is why things are... messed up. 

The interestst of workers and Investors only line up together when you take the extreme macro view. At the micro level workers and investors are direct competitors for the same income and as such, its reasonable and inevitable that a measure of investor health would  move conversely to one of worker health.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

I feel bad for those rail unions. Pay all those dues and your one pressure point is taken away from you.

And I don't blame Congress for that. You can't punish 350m people for 100,000 workers. But why can't Congress stick it to the railroads instead of the workers? 

 

Good luck getting good young people to want to take that up as their life’s work. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

But why can't Congress stick it to the railroads instead of the workers? 

because voters vote for Republicans.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Yeah it's really backwards. The Fed had said they want wages to go down and unemployment to go up. Which seems dumb but that is how to stop inflation, unfortunately.

I still tend to believe that while the Fed interest rate moves have certainly been enough to affect housing and also take the froth off the stock markets, people are still confusing rapid increases in rates with high rates. Even though there have been rapid increaeses, actual interest rates are still not high by any historical standard, so they are not producing the kind of drag that created the recessions in 1960's/60's/80's when Fed increases were pushing rates to >10%

[1984Echoes]

And the 1980's interest rate levels (very high) and resulting recession were requirements to kill off the stagnation malaise the country had been mired in since Nixon...

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I still tend to believe that while the Fed interest rate moves have certainly been enough to affect housing and also take the froth off the stock markets, people are still confusing rapid increases in rates with high rates. Even though there have been rapid increaeses, actual interest rates are still not high by any historical standard, so they are not producing the kind of drag that created the recessions in 1960's/60's/80's when Fed increases were pushing rates to >10%

If the interest rates get that high again, I am investing in long-term CDs and bonds and never going back into the market.  

[Screwball]

Let me disclose up front, I haven't followed this rail thing much.  I only have two questions. Did .gov pass a bill to prevent a strike? What does it do for the sick days thing?

[Screwball]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

If the interest rates get that high again, I am investing in long-term CDs and bonds and never going back into the market.  

I've been buying short term bonds just because it's fun pushing a button. I could check a box, but that's no fun.

[Screwball]

Since we are talking about Unions, I have to tell this story.

Disclosure; I grew up in a union home. My 5' 3" mom was a union rep at the local factory she worked in.  Her 6' 5" 350 brother was scared of her, and so was dad. So was I. She was Granny from the Beverly Hillbillies - literally - coming from West Virginia. Moved North during the industrial revolution and made a life. Unions were part of how people like my parents could do so, same in Michigan with the auto industry.

The story; circa 1983-4.  I worked at a local (Cornhole, town in the sticks of NW Ohio) manufacturer who made cranes. They got a huge order from the military and built a couple hundred machines. They were making huge money. This was an example of $200 dollar o-rings. The workers wanted more money so the union threatened to go on strike. The contract was in play too, because they "collective bargained" every so many years and the timing was right. It took a while to play out, but it got there.

While we ate lunch one day close to the deadline, the union president was going all preacher on us, telling how he was going to kick their ass here shortly.

He was called to the office for the big meeting over the loudspeaker.  Rah, rah, rah, off he went.  Charge!  He  wimped out like a dead fish flopping around on a beach once in the room, and that's being kind.  The funny part - they never turned off the mic - so the entire conversation was broadcasted to the workers.  Brilliant, if you are company.

He came out with the same bravado, but once he found out he was fucked - he shot out the door.  He did come back (not the same day). I really thought the guys would string him up.  There were some crazy dudes there.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

I've been buying short term bonds just because it's fun pushing a button. I could check a box, but that's no fun.

I've been investing in short-term CDs and treasuries.  I am looking forward to the first expiring at the end of December.  At that time, I will likely buy some more short-term stuff.    

[Deleterious]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Let me disclose up front, I haven't followed this rail thing much.  I only have two questions. Did .gov pass a bill to prevent a strike? What does it do for the sick days thing?

They passed the deal Biden negotiated.  24% raise over 5 years plus 1 extra paid sick day.  It did absolutely nothing to address the problems the unions were fighting against.  

The biggest problem is they have cut the workforce by 30% over the past few years.  So you are constantly working and even when not working you are on call 24/7 which means you can't plan anything.