Investing

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

When I get out, I see a bunch of retailers with help wanted signs in their door. And in my industry, we have a shortage of qualified labor which makes it hard to fill requisitions. We've been dealing with this for a while.

Sorry that my experience differs with yours I guess.

I don't disagree, but why?

People at our retailers are only a sign of what's going on in the bigger picture. I've watched the same exact thing in my industry for a long time as well. We can't find qualified people to do many of the jobs that need to be done. Which might be why there is so many jobs available - doesn't matter what they are - a barista or an engineer.  It's easier to do it myself than babysit some fraud who can't do anything but play on their phone - and have no clue what to do anyway. So I chose not to hire anyone and work another 3 hours a day - because bottom line.  That's how it works. If i don't, I don't have a job. It must be done, by someone.

Add in our technology, and the obvious thing to do is replace labor. The easiest and quickest way to cure the bottom line - because we must beat the next earnings report for Wall Street.

We are nothing but commodities, and if you don't believe that, you are a clueless tool.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

When I get out, I see a bunch of retailers with help wanted signs in their door. And in my industry, we have a shortage of qualified labor which makes it hard to fill requisitions. We've been dealing with this for a while.

Sorry that my experience differs with yours I guess.

The relationship between first time claims and the direction of the unemployment rate can vary, but in the last few cycles, unemployment tends not to go up when claims are less than ~300k/month, so the current numbers still indicate a tight job market. 

[Screwball]

How Did Covid Impact the Minimum Wage Someone Would Accept for a Job?

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000
• Employment Level: +12,000
• Full Time Employment: -398,000

Employment fell by 138,000 in November.

Full time employment is down 398,000 since March and down by 480,000 since May!

For the latest jobs report, please see Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Please note The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

Quote

In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data.  

 

[Tiger337]

Getting back to investing...I had two CDs mature yesterday, so I was eager to invest the money at great new rates and there is hardly anything available.  I talked to a TIAA rep and he told me inventory is very low due to the hoilday.  So, I'll try again next week.  Patience.  

[Deleterious]

So the S&P ends up down just under 20% for the year.  It was the worst year since 2008.

I feel like it could have been a lot worse.  

[oblong]

6 hours ago, Screwball said:

How Did Covid Impact the Minimum Wage Someone Would Accept for a Job?

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000
• Employment Level: +12,000
• Full Time Employment: -398,000

Employment fell by 138,000 in November.

Full time employment is down 398,000 since March and down by 480,000 since May!

For the latest jobs report, please see Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Please note The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

 

She’s just assuming the reason as fact when the data is not clear “on that”.  People don’t want those jobs for the wages being offered and boomer/early retirement spurred it. Lifestyle changes as well.  The need to blame people is enlightening to someone’s world view. 

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

So the S&P ends up down just under 20% for the year.  It was the worst year since 2008.

I feel like it could have been a lot worse.  

The worst may be yet to come...Although I would bet that the full 2023 will be a lot better than 2022.  

Edited December 30, 2022 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

So the S&P ends up down just under 20% for the year.  It was the worst year since 2008.

I feel like it could have been a lot worse.  

yup. Pull back to 50,000 feet and you find the S&P will open 2023 about 18% higher than it opened 2020. That's still about 5.5% per annum compounded. That big bubble in between was mostly froth generated by pandemic money sloshing around with no-where else to go.

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

She’s just assuming the reason as fact when the data is not clear “on that”.  People don’t want those jobs for the wages being offered and boomer/early retirement spurred it. Lifestyle changes as well.  The need to blame people is enlightening to someone’s world view. 

I hate using Tweets as data, but that built on my thesis. There are parts of our jobs data (certain industries) that are robust, and hiring, while others are not. First, you must sift through the reports (only the "headline" numbers are reported, but not necessarily a good indicator in the bigger picture, so you have to dig).

The data tells tales.

I don't want to get into a giant pissing match (not thinking you do either) but the automation angle is real. I've sat in the meetings figuring out how to eliminate jobs. Everything in large corporate America is all about the bottom line. Period.

I think you work for a large company, so you probably already know that.

[Screwball]

It's the fun time of the year when the prognosticators give their predictions for the next year. Fun stuff, you can find all angles to fit your outlook.

So here's mine: 2023 is going to be a giant shit show.

Happy New Year!

[Screwball]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Getting back to investing...I had two CDs mature yesterday, so I was eager to invest the money at great new rates and there is hardly anything available.  I talked to a TIAA rep and he told me inventory is very low due to the hoilday.  So, I'll try again next week.  Patience.  

Getting back to investing...

Treasury Direct still works. You can make 130 or so bucks a month on 40 grand, which is better than cash. 4 week T-bills.

[oblong]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

I hate using Tweets as data, but that built on my thesis. There are parts of our jobs data (certain industries) that are robust, and hiring, while others are not. First, you must sift through the reports (only the "headline" numbers are reported, but not necessarily a good indicator in the bigger picture, so you have to dig).

The data tells tales.

I don't want to get into a giant pissing match (not thinking you do either) but the automation angle is real. I've sat in the meetings figuring out how to eliminate jobs. Everything in large corporate America is all about the bottom line. Period.

I think you work for a large company, so you probably already know that.

My sticking point is the why.  It’s not to lay people off and be mean or because people are sitting home being lazy after getting a few thousand dollars in 2020.  It’s because either the work doesn’t justify the cost to attract people for the product or service  being sold. It’s also because there’s fewer people around to fill the slots.   
 

I don’t like to talk specifically about my employer but we went thru a huge massive layoff in august. Then at the end of the year a bunch of others retired due to pension interest rate changes.  Im now doing my old boss’s job, as if relates to my world. We are all scrambling.  Work went to “low cost” countries. It sucks. Our customers will suffer. Im not speaking from a position of senior management but simply trying to understand the why. 

who’s fault is it?  A little of everybody I guess. We all want good returns on our investments.  This is how that happens. 

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, oblong said:

who’s fault is it?  A little of everybody I guess

one thing that would help would be a reform of corporate governance structures mandated by corporate charters. I think in the modern world we are now sophisticated enough to know that investors are not the only stakeholders in American corporations and their exclusive representation on corporate boards is an anachronism. Half the managers at least at any corporation know that they are not managing their operation for its optimum long term growth but have no alternative because the governing imperative is short term profit. That is not an inevitability, it's simply a political choice we have made, or allowed to happen. 

[Screwball]

23 minutes ago, oblong said:

My sticking point is the why.  It’s not to lay people off and be mean or because people are sitting home being lazy after getting a few thousand dollars in 2020.  It’s because either the work doesn’t justify the cost to attract people for the product or service  being sold. It’s also because there’s fewer people around to fill the slots.   
 

I don’t like to talk specifically about my employer but we went thru a huge massive layoff in august. Then at the end of the year a bunch of others retired due to pension interest rate changes.  Im now doing my old boss’s job, as if relates to my world. We are all scrambling.  Work went to “low cost” countries. It sucks. Our customers will suffer. Im not speaking from a position of senior management but simply trying to understand the why. 

who’s fault is it?  A little of everybody I guess. We all want good returns on our investments.  This is how that happens. 

I'll give the "why" a shot based on my experience.

In the countless "corporate obedience training classes" I had to endure, I found the material excellent and presented in a way to change the "culture."  In another class, 8 years prior, I was a part of a Six Sigma two year development project who's final thesis determined there was a "culture" problem.  WTF?

Which really proved - management was inept. They were the culture. But that was not allowed to be the answer.

That's all a bunch of corporate bullshit peddled by corporate worms - because that's what they get paid to do, and it never changes shit.

It is all decided by bean counters and the next quarterly earnings report.

As Carlin said - they don't give a fuck about us.

[oblong]

6 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I'll give the "why" a shot based on my experience.

In the countless "corporate obedience training classes" I had to endure, I found the material excellent and presented in a way to change the "culture."  In another class, 8 years prior, I was a part of a Six Sigma two year development project who's final thesis determined there was a "culture" problem.  WTF?

Which really proved - management was inept. They were the culture. But that was not allowed to be the answer.

That's all a bunch of corporate bullshit peddled by corporate worms - because that's what they get paid to do, and it never changes shit.

It is all decided by bean counters and the next quarterly earnings report.

As Carlin said - they don't give a fuck about us.

Every two years I have a new “system” to learn culturally.  Then I have to fit my job to that for reviews.  I agree totally it’s bullshit. 
 

here you go

 

 

[Screwball]

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

Every two years I have a new “system” to learn culturally.  Then I have to fit my job to that for reviews.  I agree totally it’s bullshit. 
 

here you go

<snip>

OMG, don't get me started on reviews. Ok, you did...

We had guys who spent countless hours spewing bullshit upstream (in their review - they talked about it - so wild - it was like their entire year) - which was part of the deal. We called them PMP's - personal management profile - attached with a laundry list of "accomplishments", "training time", "goodwill" and all the current corporate bullshit buzzwords of the day you had to prove you met to get some shitty raise, if any at all.

And at the end of the day, that feeds into mayhem on the manufacturing side. Some ladder climbing bullshit artist gets promotions and raises because he promised a new fan-dangled thing on a product, while in reality is was a total bust and cost the company millions.

Us foot solders told them so years before but we were the ones full of shit.

 

 

 

[Screwball]

These Are the Stocks That Kept Investors Up at Night in 2022 - Bloomberg

Among others, but OUCH!

Edited December 31, 2022 by Screwball

[Screwball]

Retail Investors Took a Beating in 2022. Will It Continue in 2023? - Bloomberg

A visual to go along with the data in posts above.

Broken down by the 11 Sectors.  I can't fit all the industries, but you can see a similar chart here at Finviz

This is based on the following;

Quote

The framework created by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) has four tiers that break companies into 11 sectors, 24 industry groups, 69 industries, and 158 sub-industries.

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Screwball

[Deleterious]

Every being up you would think it's mostly green energy. But the next graph shows it's a lot of dirty energy that had a good year.

[Deleterious]

This person collected links to the major banks economic and investing forecast for 2023.

https://serebrisky.com/2022/12/29/economic-and-investment-outlook-for-2023-by-top-investment-banks/

[Screwball]

53 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

This person collected links to the major banks economic and investing forecast for 2023.

https://serebrisky.com/2022/12/29/economic-and-investment-outlook-for-2023-by-top-investment-banks/

I skimmed the one from Goldman. I'm familiar with the Jan lady who is their lead (sell side - get to that shortly). They covered their ass by saying so many things are dependent on how other things go down. I think that is accurate.

The market doesn't like uncertainty, and there is so many volatile things going on.

***

But what's the "buy side" up to?

Wall Street’s Big Banks Score $1 Trillion of Profit in a Decade - Bloomberg

Decade? 2012-2013 ish, after we bailed their criminal asses out in 2009. They've been off to filthy rich lollipop land ever since. 

I liked this part at the end;

Quote

Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Jan Hatzius, Daan Struyven, Yulia Zhestkova and Devesh Kodnani, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division

Bold mine. That's the Chinese Wall, one way they use to cheat, and always have.

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

[Deleterious]

All sorts of good stuff tonight.  This guy compiled financial metrics for 8,000 different stocks and put it in Google Sheets.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LW3ANuUQikTQl07I-5GzPpVmaH_YjJNJ/edit#gid=602669186

[1984Echoes]

Here's a higher estimate (7 million 25-54 y.o.'s) of those unwilling to participate in the job market for a variety of reasons:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-chilling-metric-mike-rowe-150000193.html

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Here's a higher estimate (7 million 25-54 y.o.'s) of those unwilling to participate in the job market for a variety of reasons:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-chilling-metric-mike-rowe-150000193.html

I also wonder how many are just working black. People can be doing light fabrication and design with 3d printers, remote web and programming tasks for cash payment and with home improvement work through the roof (also due to remote work) you probably have a LOT of builder/home reno guys that might also be working black. IIRC we saw some of this in the construction business after the last crash when guys laid off as construction employees had to start freelancing.

[Screwball]

I don't agree with some of that article, and I could care less what Mike Rowe has to say, even if he does have a TV show filming him shoveling shit. But:
 

Quote

 

Reduced labor force participation has already taken its toll on lower-paying industries — the leisure and hospitality sector has seen the highest quit rate since July 2021, and retail isn’t far behind, reports the Chamber of Commerce.

And durable goods manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade and education and health services are contending with a shortage of skilled workers.

This puts more pressure on the remaining employees, who may be dealing with longer hours, tougher responsibilities and burnout. (Fuckin' A - lucky us - added by me)

“Running your workers like this — asking them to do 20%, 30% more because you’re short staffed — it’s very much a short-term strategy. You’re going to keep losing people,” Paige Ouimet, a professor at the University of North Carolina’s Kenan-Flagler Business School, told The Washington Post.

 

It's all about the bottom line. Living the great life in the hamster wheel Я us.