Investing

[CMRivdogs]

7 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Don’t know that this is really related to investing but the annual COLA number for 2025 is 2.5%. Don’t spend it all in one place. 

I'll take anything I can get. The good news for us this past year is whatever change there was on Medicare drug prices helped quite a bit. From paying nearly $700 a month for Ofev after copay to nothing the last several months.

Now just hoping the price of TP drops

[gehringer_2]

Trying to decide if PAZE offers any value over ApplyPay or PayPal. Sounds like it’s just the banks trying to horn in on some action they are missing. Thoughts?

[Screwball]

27 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Don’t know that this is really related to investing but the annual COLA number for 2025 is 2.5%. Don’t spend it all in one place. 

COLA is based on the CPI-W. Of course we all know the CPI is one of the main economic indicators, and does move the market.

Social Security sets its 2025 COLA increase at 2.5%. Here's how it will change your benefits.

FTA:

Quote

The Social Security Administration set its 2025 cost-of-living adjustment at 2.5%, the smallest annual COLA hike since 2021. Although inflation has eased from its pandemic-era heights, some advocates for older Americans say the modest bump in Social Security benefits puts U.S. retirees at risk of losing financial ground. 

Thanks pricks.

The COLA is based on a metric that many (other than media propagandists and idiot politicians) people don't think is an accurate measure of inflation/costs. They would also be correct. I'm sure this will be another case of that. At the same time, you are going to get hosed anyway.  Since I've been on SS, the COLA goes up, but so does the cost of supplemental insurance. Which of course eats up all the COLA raise and then some.

**** you all very much.

[Tiger337]

On 10/8/2024 at 12:22 AM, Screwball said:

I'm old so I want to protect my money. The market is too risky for me at this point (other than a small fund I play with to get my nuts off). I welcome these higher interest rates. You can do OK just playing short term yields, and completely risk free at the same time. If you get frisky, some corporate bonds can do even better.

Funny how the Fed tries to control interest rates, but they (rates) seem to do what they want to anyway. It's almost like there is something other than central planning, or the attempt of...

I am still half in the market (I am 62).  All the money I need before I turn 70 goes into short-term or medium-term CDs so I welcome the high rates.  I still have my long-term retirement money in a mutual fund.   

[Tiger337]

I am waiting until 70 before I collect SS.  I hope it's still there at that time.  

[Screwball]

42 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am waiting until 70 before I collect SS.  I hope it's still there at that time.  

Good luck.

That was my plan too, but corporate America doesn't like old people so I ran out of jobs.  When you get to be in your late 50s early 60s you have a bullseye on your back. You are at the top of your pay scale, your age will make insurance costs higher, they can't train you to be an ass kissing yes man, and they can find countless foreigners on H1B visa programs to do your job at 1/3 of the rate.

See ya old man - you became too expensive. The bottom line says you need to go.

SS will be there, they will still continue to screw us with rigging the numbers. Which is why it's a good idea to plan for yourself.

[Screwball]

49 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am still half in the market (I am 62).  All the money I need before I turn 70 goes into short-term or medium-term CDs so I welcome the high rates.  I still have my long-term retirement money in a mutual fund.   

I have everything in short term stuff. I just bought a boatload of 1 month bills the other day. I want to get past the election before committing to anything longer term.  1 month T-bills are paying decent, which I use via Treasury Direct and my savings account. The short term stuff is paying 4.5 ish but I found some corporates up around 8, which was tempting. They were also not as well rated, so there was that.

There are some decent safe plays out there playing interest rates. Going forward, and given today's CPI print, I wonder what this does to the Fed's rate cut plan? Even with the 50 bps cut the 4 week T-bill yield has changed very little according to my purchases.

[Screwball]

[gehringer_2]

the US airline business is total screw up. I don't know if we need the CAB back, but we at least need a new set of rules for how the players in a supposedly competitive system play their game.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Good luck.

That was my plan too, but corporate America doesn't like old people so I ran out of jobs.  When you get to be in your late 50s early 60s you have a bullseye on your back. You are at the top of your pay scale, your age will make insurance costs higher, they can't train you to be an ass kissing yes man, and they can find countless foreigners on H1B visa programs to do your job at 1/3 of the rate.

See ya old man - you became too expensive. The bottom line says you need to go.

SS will be there, they will still continue to screw us with rigging the numbers. Which is why it's a good idea to plan for yourself.

I try to save enough where I'll be OK if I get zero social security.  

[1776]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I try to save enough where I'll be OK if I get zero social security.  

It will never be, but that should be everyone’s approach. Particularly the younger generations. 

[Screwball]

8 hours ago, 1776 said:

It will never be, but that should be everyone’s approach. Particularly the younger generations. 

I'm an old guy who is kinda into the markets, investing, saving, money management, call it what you want.

Honest question for the younger generation that may be reading this; how is financial things like we are talking about taught today?

[CMRivdogs]

From today's Axios

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-e0242ff0-87d0-11ef-bba5-0b4446cf21fa.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosmacro&stream=business

Quote

The big picture: The triple whammy of Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, and the Boeing strike are likely to distort economic data in the coming weeks, making the usual indicators of the economy's health more difficult to dissect.

Payroll employment is likely to be depressed, along with industrial production and some measures of consumer spending, in ways that don't reflect the economy's underlying trajectory.

There is also likely to be a bounce-back surge in economic output as rebuilding occurs in the next few quarters, because in GDP arithmetic, rebuilding a destroyed building counts as a positive.

But it's hard in moments like this to know how much of any apparent weakness in the data should be chalked up to one-time effects.

State of play: We got an early sign of this with yesterday's report on jobless claims, which saw a spike fueled in part by claims in Helene-afflicted North Carolina and aerospace-heavy Washington state. (Striking workers are not eligible for unemployment benefits, but furloughed workers elsewhere in the Boeing supply chain are.)

Goldman Sachs economists estimate the Boeing strike is on track to subtract 33,000 from October job growth, and Hurricane Helene about 50,000.

This week is the "reference week" for the October jobs numbers, meaning anyone not working this week in Florida due to Milton — an hourly employee who evacuated, for example — will not count toward payroll employment.

The numbers could be affected by both people who are temporarily not working and depressed response rates to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' surveys, as the officials who usually fill them out are busy dealing with crisis conditions.

What they're saying: October jobs numbers "will likely show flat or negative growth in total employment and an increase in unemployment — to the point that we are not likely to get clean looks at the major economic data series until late 2024 or early 2025," per a note from RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas.

Flashback: There is a useful historical analogue to the situation. In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina walloped New Orleans, followed soon after by Hurricanes Rita and Wilma. There was also a 28-day Boeing strike.

As then-Federal Reserve economist David Stockton put it in a Nov. 1 policy meeting that year, "we are now in a thick data fog that makes it difficult to separate the underlying trend in the economy from the influence of the storms."

One can hope that this part of Stockton's 2005 assessment applies in 2024 as well. He added that "we are feeling increasingly comfortable arguing that the data support our earlier view that the economy would retain its momentum this fall."

Indeed, while national job growth was weak in September and October of 2005, it bounced back in November, as the nation added a whopping 355,000 jobs.

   

 

 

 

 

[Screwball]

The BLS numbers have been ****ed up for a long time.

[gehringer_2]

Oil under $75/bbl on news that Israel has supposedly agreed not to hit Iranian oil facilities.

This dance between Israel and Iran is certainly a very odd one.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-extends-losses-report-israel-220954067.html

Edited October 15 by gehringer_2
add link

[chasfh]

20 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Oil under $75/bbl on news that Israel has supposedly agreed not to hit Iranian oil facilities.

This dance between Israel and Iran is certainly a very odd one.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-extends-losses-report-israel-220954067.html

Almost as though it were performative rather than existential.

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Almost as though it were performative rather than existential.

I can believe there is a lot more back channel contact between Israel and Iran than might be assumed. 

[Deleterious]

TSMC crushed earnings yesterday. Their stock price is being rewarded today, up 11%.

Reminds me of the saying about the gold rush in the 1800's.

You didn't want to be a gold miner. You wanted to be the guy selling shovels to the gold miners. Well, with the current AI craze, TSMC is selling a lot of shovels.

[gehringer_2]

and if that is how to do it right, Boeing giving a clinic in how to do it wrong. Second contract proposal goes down to defeat by the rank and file. FWIW, if the reporting is correct, mostly over 5% on the wage increase. Boeing management apparently still high on their own supply.

Edited October 24 by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

Well. I guess we will find out if the Israeli attack on Iran was priced in or not.

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Well. I guess we will find out if the Israeli attack on Iran was priced in or not.

I wonder how many other things are priced in or out. Of course this is a weekend and we (us mortals)don't know what the markets might look like come opening bell Monday. One might want to watch the price of crude.

What a ****ed up mess!

[1776]

9 hours ago, Screwball said:

What a ****ed up mess!

And in all likelihood, it’ll get worse.   

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, 1776 said:

And in all likelihood, it’ll get worse.   

Without a doubt

[Tiger337]

On 10/10/2024 at 10:15 PM, Screwball said:

I'm an old guy who is kinda into the markets, investing, saving, money management, call it what you want.

Honest question for the younger generation that may be reading this; how is financial things like we are talking about taught today?

I'm not very young, but I'll say that it was not taught at all to me growing up - not by schools or family.  It should be.  What little I know, I picked up mostly on my own.  I had an advisor for several years.  He was expensive (mostly because of the companies he worked for), but pretty honest.  He taught me not to be afraid of stock investing, which has turned out to be mostly good for me.  I also learned that having an advisor is ridiculously expensive, so I now I just do it on my own.  I keep it very simple. The Bogle book was very instructive and I think his ideas would work for most people.