CMRivdogs Posted January 21 Posted January 21 I guess we will always need plumbers, electrician and HVAC engineers. That and someone to babysit us old geezers Quote
Screwball Posted January 21 Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: I had a similar conversation with the spouse this afternoon. You and I (and a few others here) are around the same age. We grew up in an era where many of our parents made a decent wage in retail. That's gone. Same with factory work (my very young day were in Western Pa. remember the steel mills before they moved to places like Indiana, (where are they now)? My son is a civil engineer, most of his career he's worked with the variations of CAD. With AI what does his career look like? What are the new careers in the next 10 years or so? How things have changed over the years is nothing less than amazing. When I grew up people made a living making things with their hands. The old world was much more labor intensive and more people needed. Things changed with technology. First the computers which could do math thousands of times faster than we could, which later brought on the internet and the ability to globalize that labor. It started with the blue collar jobs (I lived though NAFTA) and eventually got the white collar jobs too. You mention CAD. I remember the days things were made by paper drawings, drawn by talented engineers and draftsmen. They used a table, mechanical arm, and a calculator (or slide rule). We had cars, appliances, bridges, buildings back then - using paper. Then computers came along and many of those jobs were gone. CAD systems changed the game big time. Where will it go next? I don't know. Where does the human factor get replaced by technology? Maybe the same place the computer people had trouble, and still do - junk in, junk out. AI can (maybe) design a really cool part/assembly/machine - but can it be made - and at what cost? Then again, after 35 years in corporate America, I never understood how they made anything to begin with. Quote
ewsieg Posted January 21 Posted January 21 10 hours ago, Screwball said: Then again, after 35 years in corporate America, I never understood how they made anything to begin with. Had, some big truth in this. Often move forward despite ourselves it seems. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 21 Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, ewsieg said: Had, some big truth in this. Often move forward despite ourselves it seems. there are enough effective (and often mal-adusted!) people around to pull the rest along with them. Pretty much the way it's always been. Quote
Screwball Posted January 21 Posted January 21 1 hour ago, ewsieg said: Had, some big truth in this. Often move forward despite ourselves it seems. I haven't been at a multi-national for over 7 years and I can only imagine how f'ed up it is now. It was an utter circus back then. Office Space (the movie) and Dilbert (the cartoon) didn't do it justice. We had a saying; the only way this place could get anymore ****ed up is if it got bigger. Quote
Screwball Posted January 21 Posted January 21 NFLX reported earning after close today and killed it. Up over 10% AH. And of course shortly after: Quote
Screwball Posted January 21 Posted January 21 And a $15 billion stock buyback. Holy give the CEO a raise Batman. Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 The markets are liking the new administration it seems. Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Screwball said: And a $15 billion stock buyback. Holy give the CEO a raise Batman. This could have all been Blockbuster’s if they could have seen the forest through the trees. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 52 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said: This could have all been Blockbuster’s if they could have seen the forest through the trees. Sort of like Sears could/should have been Amazon. 1 Quote
oblong Posted January 22 Posted January 22 I read a book about the fall of blockbuster. They had no interest in actually running the business. All they cared about was growth and expansion. (Stock price). They left so much on the table. No interest in data analysis or inventory management. The author worked for a big competitor in the south and wound up working for a big franchisee. He had to manually hack into their systems and hire a college kid to convert the data to csv files so he could devise a strategy. He would share with the corporate offices and they didn’t care. You had all this data on who bought what and when and where… they didn’t care. It’s a quick and fun read. I might revisit if. Lots of slap your forehead moments about things that seemed obvious. 1 Quote
Screwball Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) There are tons of examples of going public with bad business plans. It's part of the game and makes Wall Street rich. The buybacks make the big wheels a bunch more money than the people holding the same stock. More money, and in options (leverage). A giant scam of trickle up. NFLX is a stock near and dear to my heart. True story. March 6th, 2009 (not looking it up but I'll bet I'm close) when the S&P hit 666, which turned out to be the bottom of the market after the bankers blew up the financial system. The next trading day I bought NFLX and BIDU. I rode them for some nice gains and pulled the rip cord. If I would have left the NFLX trade on the table it might be worth millions today. The market is a whore. ON EDIT: I checked this. Yep, millionaire. A two grand grand investment gets you 1.25 million, and that only the last 30 years. Spit Edited January 22 by Screwball Quote
Tiger337 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 On 1/16/2025 at 9:17 PM, Screwball said: I do love the yield on the short term rates though. Safe is good. I've got a good chunk of money in those. I also have some money in cds which go anywhere from 3 months to 5 years. I am still invested in the market, but I am increasing my "safe" portion now that I am in my 60s. Thus, I am not worried about high rates. I know the high rates are bad for many though, especially those trying to buy homes. Quote
Screwball Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I've got a good chunk of money in those. I also have some money in cds which go anywhere from 3 months to 5 years. I am still invested in the market, but I am increasing my "safe" portion now that I am in my 60s. Thus, I am not worried about high rates. I know the high rates are bad for many though, especially those trying to buy homes. I've been doing short term stuff with everything. Just did some things the other day. I found some really good corporate bonds, but their ratings were at the bottom end of the safe zone. I'm pretty chicken ****. ON EDIT: I bought the safe stuff. Edited January 22 by Screwball Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 2 hours ago, oblong said: I read a book about the fall of blockbuster. They had no interest in actually running the business. All they cared about was growth and expansion. (Stock price). They left so much on the table. No interest in data analysis or inventory management. The author worked for a big competitor in the south and wound up working for a big franchisee. He had to manually hack into their systems and hire a college kid to convert the data to csv files so he could devise a strategy. He would share with the corporate offices and they didn’t care. You had all this data on who bought what and when and where… they didn’t care. It’s a quick and fun read. I might revisit if. Lots of slap your forehead moments about things that seemed obvious. Video tape must have been one of the shortest lived massively adopted technologies ever - video tape and the floppy disc maybe. Quote
Deleterious Posted January 23 Posted January 23 Someone ask him why he is leaving a job that pays millions for one that might pay $200K? 1 Quote
CMRivdogs Posted January 23 Posted January 23 The minister who marketed a coin after giving the prayer at the inauguration now finds that his promotional stunt is worth $0.0002667 1 Quote
1776 Posted January 27 Posted January 27 This week may be the beginning of the Trump/Powell stare down over the future of interest rates. Should provide some entertainment to close out January. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 27 Posted January 27 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1776 said: This week may be the beginning of the Trump/Powell stare down over the future of interest rates. Should provide some entertainment to close out January. But what does Trump want - and could Powell give it to him even if he wanted to? We are already at the point where lowering short term rates is just going to steepen the yield curve and drive long term rates higher. Is it possible Trump actually doesn't understand how the dynamic works? For the sake of his presidency, Trump needs long term rates to fall, but there is not much the Fed can do directly to affect long term rates. Long term rates come down when the market stops expecting inflation. If Trump needs to let the Fed fight inflation he may need to let them raise or at least hold rates constant, but it doesn't seem likely that's what Trump is going to demand. The Fed could accede to his demands, lower rates short term rates, have inflation increase again, and let Trump's presidency suffer the consequences, but to do that would violate their charter to do what they understand is best to keep prices stable and employment strong. I suppose if you are Trump, what you should want to be able to send all kinds of heat the Fed's way but hope the Fed actually doesn't buckle so he can get the PR benefit of deflecting and blaming conditions on the Fed without the downside of them actually doing what he claims he wants. Edited January 27 by gehringer_2 Quote
Deleterious Posted January 27 Posted January 27 Wonder what they dislike about it. I played with it a bit and it seems fine. Quote
Deleterious Posted January 27 Posted January 27 I just used Deepseek to design an investment plan for a 30 year old to retire at 50. Its not perfect or even good. But it is better than what most people do. And I like it realizes you can't meet your goal so it advises how to adjust. Prompt I typed: Quote 30 years old with a $450,000 mortgage. I make $120,000 per year. Design an investment plan so I can retire at 50 years old The response Quote Key Assumptions Current Age: 30 | Retirement Age: 50 → 20-year timeline. Income: 120,000/year(120,000/year(10,000/month pre-tax). Mortgage: 450,000(30−yeartermat 5450,000(30−yeartermat 52,416/month payment). Retirement Spending: Assume 70% of pre-retirement income ($84,000/year in today’s dollars) adjusted for inflation (3% annually). Investment Returns: 7% average annual return (stock-heavy portfolio). Step 1: Crunch the Numbers Retirement Savings Target To retire at 50 and sustain yourself until age 90 (40-year retirement), use the 4% Rule: Annual Expenses: $84,000 (inflation-adjusted). Required Nest Egg: 84,000/0.04=∗∗84,000/0.04=∗∗2.1 million** (in today’s dollars). Adjusted for 3% inflation over 20 years: ≈$3.8 million. Monthly Savings Required To reach $3.8 million in 20 years at 7% returns: Monthly Investment: ~$6,300/month. BUT this assumes no existing savings and aggressive returns. Adjustments will be needed (see Step 2). Step 2: Budget Optimization Start by analyzing your cash flow: Income $10,000/month (pre-tax) Taxes ~$2,500/month (estimate) Take-Home Pay $7,500/month Essential Expenses Mortgage: $2,416/month Utilities/Food/Insurance: ~$2,000/month Miscellaneous: $1,000/month Total Expenses: ~$5,416/month Remaining Cashflow: 7,500–7,500–5,416 = $2,084/month Debt Strategy Pay off the mortgage before retirement (currently 30-year term → ends at age 60). Accelerate Payments: Add $1,000/month to pay it off in ~20 years (aligns with retirement goal). New mortgage payment: $3,416/month. Frees up cashflow at age 50. Step 3: Investment Plan Priority Order for Savings Maximize Tax-Advantaged Accounts 401(k)/403(b): Contribute up to the annual limit ($23,000 in 2024). Employer match (if any) is free money. Roth IRA: 7,000/year(incomelimit:7,000/year(incomelimit:161k for singles in 2024). HSA (if eligible): $4,150/year (triple tax-advantaged). Total Tax-Advantaged Savings: ~34,150/year(34,150/year(2,846/month). Taxable Brokerage Account Invest remaining savings here. Focus on tax-efficient ETFs (e.g., VTI, VXUS). Asset Allocation Age 30–40: 90% stocks / 10% bonds (aggressive growth). Age 40–50: Shift to 70% stocks / 30% bonds (reduce volatility). Portfolio Example Funds U.S. Stocks (50%) VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) International Stocks (30%) VXUS (Vanguard Total International Stock) Bonds (10%) BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) REITs (10%) VNQ (Vanguard Real Estate ETF) Step 4: Projections Annual Savings: Tax-advantaged: $34,150 Taxable: (2,084–2,084–2,846) = Not feasible → Adjust budget or reduce expenses. Revised Savings Strategy Cut discretionary spending to free up an extra $1,000/month. Total Monthly Savings: 2,084+2,084+1,000 = $3,084/month. Tax-Advantaged: $2,846/month (401k + Roth IRA + HSA). Taxable: $238/month. Total Portfolio at 50: Tax-Advantaged: 2,846/month×20years@72,846/month×20years@71.5 million**. Taxable: 238/month×20years@7238/month×20years@7125,000**. Total: ~1.625million(gapof 1.625million(gapof 2.2 million). Step 5: Bridging the Gap To close the shortfall: Increase Income: Side hustles, promotions, or rental income. Reduce Expenses: Downsize home post-retirement or relocate to a lower-cost area. Delay Retirement: Working until 55 adds 5 more years of compounding. Leverage Real Estate: Buy a rental property for cash flow. Step 6: Critical Considerations Healthcare Costs: Budget $10,000+/year until Medicare at 65. Social Security: You’ll receive reduced benefits if claimed early (age 62+). Mortgage Payoff: Eliminate debt by 50 to reduce retirement expenses. Inflation: Use TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) in retirement. Summary: Action Steps Slash Expenses: Aim to save 40–50% of income (4,000–4,000–5,000/month). Maximize Retirement Accounts: Prioritize 401(k) and Roth IRA. Invest Aggressively: Stick to low-cost index funds. Accelerate Mortgage Payments: Aim to own your home by 50. Monitor Progress: Rebalance annually and adjust savings as income grows. By age 50, your portfolio could generate ~65,000/year(465,000/year(41.6M) + Social Security later. Pair this with a paid-off home and disciplined spending, and early retirement becomes feasible. Need help refining specifics? Let me know! Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 27 Posted January 27 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Deleterious said: Wonder what they dislike about it. I played with it a bit and it seems fine. that is works fine is likely the problem - because to the degree it may be demonstrating that you can use open source programming on cloud, or worse by extension it also implies crowd sourced computational power, to achieve your ends it undercuts the economic model for huge dedicated AI infrastructure, which is the market aspiration driving NVidia share prices. If you have open source programming you could use a model like SETI/FoldingAtHome to harness the computational power already out there in millions of existing high performance video cards and make it available in the public domain to anyone who wants to join the consortium and donate their computer's idle time. I have no idea if could happen, but it would be both ironic and quite hilarious if the Chinese blew up Western capitalist profit hopes by developing open source solutions. Edited January 27 by gehringer_2 Quote
Screwball Posted January 27 Posted January 27 (edited) 3 hours ago, 1776 said: This week may be the beginning of the Trump/Powell stare down over the future of interest rates. Should provide some entertainment to close out January. Entertainment is the proper word. Trump can jawbone at Powell all he wants and Powell and the FOMC will do whatever the **** they want, like they have done since forever. Including puking out a bunch of BS to keep the keyboard Paul Volcker's busy trying to sound smart, and politicians in general look stupid. Bankers are the smartest people in the room. Someone even wrote a book about it. 🙂 Powell is there until June of 2026 I think. There is no here, here. Edited January 27 by Screwball Quote
Screwball Posted January 27 Posted January 27 (edited) I'm old enough to remember the days before computers. I was in IT, engineering, CAD, etc. at a high level through the entire transformation. This AI stuff scares the **** out of me. Edited January 27 by Screwball Quote
Hongbit Posted January 27 Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Screwball said: I'm old enough to remember the days before computers. I was in IT, engineering, CAD, etc. at a high level through the entire transformation. This AI stuff scares the **** out of me. In 1984, James Cameron told us exactly how this all plays out when he made The Terminator. Quote
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