Investing

[Dan Gilmore]

And what if the rest of the world (minus Russia) “does it’s thing”? I’m not buying the idea that this is a brief period of economic pain that will be over quickly and then the new world economic order will emerge with the US in a stronger position.

[CMRivdogs]

13 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Yesterday was the best thing he could do for the economy.  Now leave it alone and let us do our thing.  If we have to tack in another direction 2 weeks from now then its bad.

How will this reduce the cost of eggs?

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

And what if the rest of the world (minus Russia) “does it’s thing”? I’m not buying the idea that this is a brief period of economic pain that will be over quickly and then the new world economic order will emerge with the US in a stronger position.

Nobody knows how this is going to play out.  I think it is a careless risk and seeing how the tariffs were calculated there seems to be no sophisticated plan behind it.   

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

And what if the rest of the world (minus Russia) “does it’s thing”?

If the first few months of this administration have taught us anything, it's that the rest of the world is a lot more willing to tell us to pound sand than Trump's administration (or supporters) believed.

Just a toxic combination of arrogance and delusion

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Nobody knows how this is going to play out.  I think it is a careless risk and seeing how the tariffs were calculated there seems to be no sophisticated plan behind it.   

It's important to keep in mind as well that Trump (and people like Navarro underneath him) have simultaneously treated tariffs as both punitive measures to punish other countries as well as a reliable revenue stream to fund their priorities (ie. extending the Trump tax cuts).

It's incoherent as hell - tariffs are usually applied in order to influence consumer decisions and what they choose to buy which, taken to it's end logic, will reduce how much people choose to buy and over time will reduce the amount of revenue that the tariffs will take in.

Sorry, there is absolutely zero reason to trust this administration knows what the hell its doing here.

[Deleterious]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't agree.  Our country and economy was not in dire straits, so there is no reason for such dramatic measures even if you think they are fair in theory. Putting tariffs on every country in the world including allies and countries struggling to survive has a big risk of creating chaos and destruction which could be felt around the world including here.  It seems that if he wants to play with tariffs he should be targeting specific countries which may be a threat to us.  I don't think many would have a problem with that.  

Well, we are talking about two different things.

You are talking about the best possible thing to do if a normal person is in office.  I'm talking about the best possible thing that can happen with Trump in office.

He was always going to make a bad choice.  Dragging it out for 3 months, putting his left foot in, pulling his left foot out, compounds that bad choice.  I feel him picking a direction and sticking with it is the best possible outcome from our current President.  Even if the direction is an awful one, like I think the tariffs are. 

 

 

[oblong]

Companies exist to make money.  Not to make products.  If they can't make money making a product then they stop making the product.  They aren't going to spend billions moving production domestically to then have to pay american workers more money.  The investors and owners will just move on to another thing and we'll end up having just one shoe company in the world.

 

[1776]

The DOW is down @1300 hundred points right now. Long term, any buyers out there?  
 

 

[chasfh]

59 minutes ago, romad1 said:

well...

That's OK, they'll be back on board the MAGA train well before lunchtime tomorrow.

[chasfh]

10 minutes ago, 1776 said:

The DOW is down @1300 hundred points right now. Long term, any buyers out there?  
 

 

Barron's Headline: Trump Tariffs Are a Nightmare for Stock Markets. Next Quarter Could Be More Terrifying.

Me, to my advisor, on Tuesday: Hi [Name]—just an example of the news we are all seeing every day. All signs continue to point to down. Do we continue to believe in holding all equities for the entire ride down, however far it may go? This is not an order by us to sell, but rather a question about the efficacy of sitting back and watching what everyone appears to know is going to happen happen ... Does it continue to make sense to keep holding all of it during the easily foreseeable drop and hope we can make it up within several years, or does it make sense to shed at least some of it (sort of like a “sell in May [or in this case, April] and go away” kind of thing)?

Advisor: This market selloff is disconcerting on many dimensions. We do think it is temporary. Our recommendation is to stay invested. We think lower interest rates and an accommodative Fed will have a positive impact on stocks in Q2, Q3 and Q4.

So, hold on and ride it all the way down, make no changes, because it will come back starting in Q2, because  this is all very normal and the market will respond to normal Fed policy. 

OK.

FTR, I do believe he is right at least directionally. After the Great Crash of 1929, the market did come back to its previous level ... in 1954.

 

[Deleterious]

I wish he had asked him how he thinks the Fed can lower rates.  Everything just got more expensive across the board, which means inflation.  Lower rates would be a disaster right now.

[1776]

For the first time since I retired in 2017, I let last month’s distributions from one of our funds run off to a cash account rather than reinvest the money which I’d done all along. The money is still in my IRA. 
I’m primarily invested for dividends. With this pullback I’m seriously looking at putting this cash back into my funds. If so, averaging in. We’ll see how the market plays out. Additionally, this entire tariff fiasco may be scrapped next week. Who knows! 

[Tiger337]

38 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Well, we are talking about two different things.

You are talking about the best possible thing to do if a normal person is in office.  I'm talking about the best possible thing that can happen with Trump in office.

 

 

 

OK, I see what you mean.  I don't disagree with that.  In terms of investments and business interests which is what this thread is about, doing something and sticking with it (even if it's a bad choice) is probably better than the uncertainty and fear of multiple bad choices hanging over our heads.  .  

[romad1]

29 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Barron's Headline: Trump Tariffs Are a Nightmare for Stock Markets. Next Quarter Could Be More Terrifying.

Me, to my advisor, on Tuesday: Hi [Name]—just an example of the news we are all seeing every day. All signs continue to point to down. Do we continue to believe in holding all equities for the entire ride down, however far it may go? This is not an order by us to sell, but rather a question about the efficacy of sitting back and watching what everyone appears to know is going to happen happen ... Does it continue to make sense to keep holding all of it during the easily foreseeable drop and hope we can make it up within several years, or does it make sense to shed at least some of it (sort of like a “sell in May [or in this case, April] and go away” kind of thing)?

 

 

Advisor: This market selloff is disconcerting on many dimensions. We do think it is temporary. Our recommendation is to stay invested. We think lower interest rates and an accommodative Fed will have a positive impact on stocks in Q2, Q3 and Q4.

 

So, hold on and ride it all the way down, make no changes, because it will come back starting in Q2, because  this is all very normal and the market will respond to normal Fed policy. 

OK.

FTR, I do believe he is right at least directionally. After the Great Crash of 1929, the market did come back to its previous level ... in 1954.

 

After WWII and the Korean War. 

[Deleterious]

10 minutes ago, 1776 said:

For the first time since I retired in 2017, I let last month’s distributions from one of our funds run off to a cash account rather than reinvest the money which I’d done all along. The money is still in my IRA. 
I’m primarily invested for dividends. With this pullback I’m seriously looking at putting this cash back into my funds. If so, averaging in. We’ll see how the market plays out. Additionally, this entire tariff fiasco may be scrapped next week. Who knows! 

Have some fun.  Put it all on Bitcoin. 

[romad1]

no comments needed

[1776]

22 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Barron's Headline: Trump Tariffs Are a Nightmare for Stock Markets. Next Quarter Could Be More Terrifying.

I subscribed to Barron’s years ago. Their advice for investments ranks right up there with the MarketWatch hype in my opinion. 
Using the words, “Nightmare” and “Terrifying” in the heading scream, Clickbait! 

The writers at most of these financial sites are no more knowledgeable about the market than their audience but they’re more than willing to advise you on how to invest and react to news.

[1776]

2 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Have some fun.  Put it all on Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in my world. Thanks for the tip though. 😉

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

OK, I see what you mean.  I don't disagree with that.  In terms of investments and business interests which is what this thread is about, doing something and sticking with it (even if it's a bad choice) is probably better than the uncertainty and fear of multiple bad choices hanging over our heads.  .  

Not necessarily directly related, but in a better world, this action would cause a little soul searching about the wisdom of, over time, the legislative and judicial branches ceding and endowing this much power in the Executive on trade.

Regardless of whether Trump sticks with the tariffs or not, the uncertainty will always be there going forward as other countries price in the fact that trade could potentially whipsaw on the whims of just one person

Edited yesterday at 04:39 PM by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

To the above point

 

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

To the above point

 

I'd like to see this. 

[Deleterious]

4 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in my world. Thanks for the tip though. 😉

I hear that.  Only time I bought it was to fund some poker sites I wanted to play on.  Never to invest.

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Not necessarily directly related, but in a better world, this action would cause a little soul searching about the wisdom of, over time, the legislative and judicial branches ceding and endowing this much power in the Executive on trade.

Regardless of whether Trump sticks with the tariffs or not, the uncertainty will always be there going forward as other countries price in the fact that trade could potentially whipsaw on the whims of just one person

Sure, but if you know he's going to do something and all the choices are bad, that's a different kind of uncertainty than hoping he does the right thing.  

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Sure, but if you know he's going to do something and all the choices are bad, that's a different kind of uncertainty than hoping he does the right thing.  

Clearly.... kinda wish people were thinking along these lines prior to yesterday instead of assuming that he wasn't intending on doing the thing that he campaigned over and over on during last year's POTUS election.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I wish he had asked him how he thinks the Fed can lower rates.  Everything just got more expensive across the board, which means inflation.  Lower rates would be a disaster right now.

I have a scheduled call with him next week where I can bring that up.