Investing

[Deleterious]

I don't understand why TSMC would do this.  I guess they must need the capacity now.

Great move for Intel though.

 

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

That's OK, they'll be back on board the MAGA train well before lunchtime tomorrow.

sadly true

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I wish he had asked him how he thinks the Fed can lower rates.  Everything just got more expensive across the board, which means inflation.  Lower rates would be a disaster right now.

Rates will fall if the economy slows because demand for credit will fall. The *right* result but for all the wrong reasons.

Edited 23 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

57 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I don't understand why TSMC would do this.  I guess they must need the capacity now.

Great move for Intel though.

 

This reminds me of Ford taking an interest in Mazda when they were building their US presence. Companies that are primarily competitors still find reasons to work together. One piece you have to count is the international situation for TMSC with China. Increasing their stake in US manufacturing capacity as much as they can widens the escape hatch for them to relocate the company if the Chinese try to take over Taiwan.

Edited 23 hours ago by gehringer_2

[romad1]

no investment advisor in the World would say buy tomorrow.  Except, imagine if they knew he was going to rescind it all. 

[Deleterious]

32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Rates will fall if the economy slows because demand for credit will fall. The *right* result but for all the wrong reasons.

In a normal economy.  But that isn't what we have.

With the government artificially raising prices there is a good chance we get stagflation.  If you have inflation over 5% and lower rates, hello 10% inflation. 

[Deleterious]

31 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

This reminds me of Ford taking an interest in Mazda when they were building their US presence. Companies that are primarily competitors still find reasons to work together. One piece you have to count is the international situation for TMSC with China. Increasing their stake in US manufacturing capacity as much as they can widens the escape hatch for them to relocate the company if the Chinese try to take over Taiwan.

They would want controlling interest in that scenario.  If they have to skedaddle Intel isn't going to offer a soft landing spot.  Especially if TSMC has already shown them how to properly run a foundry. 

Most feel this is TSMC pushing their lower end GPU chips onto Intel.  That way it opens up space at TSMC for the bleeding edge AI GPU chips. 

[1984Echoes]

7 hours ago, romad1 said:

 

"shot"?

The correct word is "murdered".

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

In a normal economy.  But that isn't what we have.

With the government artificially raising prices there is a good chance we get stagflation.  If you have inflation over 5% and lower rates, hello 10% inflation. 

That's the question the Fed has to struggle with. We had 'stagflation' before monetarism took over at the Fed. From Volker on forward any Fed we've had would first stomp inflation and we'd just have the recession - employment be damned. We don't know what this one will do. Powell talks a lot about 'dual obligation' to inflation and employment. I think that's a canard - the fed needs to control inflation, they don't any tools to push employment beyond where it wants to be without creating inflation so it's something that it was economically foolish for Congress to task the Fed with, but that the ignorance of US politics.

Edited 21 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

INTC was one of the few stocks up today. Not much other green. Giggle.

This is why I hate the market, and myself. All this was well known a week or so ago, and what did I do - nothing. Could have bought a VIX ETF about a week ago and got a 50% rip in a week. Pull the rip cord, laugh, and thank you very much.

The everything bubble has been looking for a pin since the swine bankers blew up the world in 2008/2009 and now we have one. Trump = pin. It will be interesting to see how far this goes. They are laughing at us. Wait till we bail out the banks - again.

Long toilet paper. JNJ? They were green today too.

[Screwball]

Note to the **** for brains that run this country; crude got hammered today too (down to 66 and change), so now might be a good time to start refilling the SPR.

We probably won't see that at the pump.

[Edman85]

Selling this off today as part of a long-desired reshuffle in my taxable account and getting a nice discount on my taxes in the process. I was up something like 20% at the beginning of the year when I realized fees on this fund had increased, but didn't want to take the tax hit to sell it off.

[Hongbit]

Jobs somehow came in hot today despite nothing indicating it would.   I didn’t believe these numbers in the past administration and I definitely don’t under the current one.  

If every facet of our government up to and including the Supreme Court has a political partisan, why should we believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be any different?  

[Edman85]

3 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Jobs somehow came in hot today despite nothing indicating it would.   I didn’t believe these numbers in the past administration and I definitely don’t under the current one.  

If every facet of our government up to and including the Supreme Court has a political partisan, why should we believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be any different?  

Yeah, I suspected they would take over BLS and cook the books some.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Jobs somehow came in hot today despite nothing indicating it would.   I didn’t believe these numbers in the past administration and I definitely don’t under the current one.  

If every facet of our government up to and including the Supreme Court has a political partisan, why should we believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be any different?  

I think every prior administration might fiddle with the numbers by maybe changing the definiions of employment or something.  I actually expect this regime to just make stuff up.  I have zero trust in them  

[Hongbit]

I understand the desire (and reason) to keep politics out of this thread.  

Is that really possible to do anymore and still maintain an honest discussion about investing?

Edited 5 hours ago by Hongbit

[RatkoVarda]

the $10T (that's TRILLION) the Markets have lost since inauguration day are primarily due to (stupid) politics

[Deleterious]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

I understand the desire (and reason) to keep politics out of this thread.  

Is that really possible to do anymore and still maintain an honest discussion about investing?

I say do what you want.

Like Screwball said the last time it came up.  Most of the people that actually posted about investing left a long time ago. 

[chasfh]

TBF, the political environment is such that run-of-the-mill retail investors like us can’t really make reasonably-informed investing decisions and expect conditions to not be suddenly changed willy-nilly at the whim of a single individual who has designs on mad royalty. Things just are nothing like normal, even in terms of recent history.