Investing

[Tiger337]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

But that's the funny thing SB, everybody hears the DOW number every night on the news and they *do* think it's the economy. Don't ask me why.

Either because they don't know what it is or because they want to use it as a political talking point.  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I’m confused. Is the insinuation that any political angle about what’s happening is inappropriate? Or a “both sides” thing?  Because this hasn’t happened before where trillions are immediately wiped out due to a specific and unprovoked action by a president.  This isn’t a reaction to some long brewing situation that popped. It isn’t a water leak. It was the opening of a fire hose. 

I don't know enough about any of this stuff to have an informed opinion, but I think the insinuation is that it was going to happen anyway because our financial system and economy are so delicate and artificial.  But if the whole thing does collapse because of a trade war, there's really only one person I can blame.  

Edit: If the stock portion my retirement fund blows up, I will blame myself because I came close to pulling out all my money in January and putting it into a high yield savings (still over 4% at the moment).    

Edited April 5 by Tiger337

[Screwball]

Futures markets opened at 6. E-mini (S&P futures) down close to a couple of hundred. You can find it if you look, but Jim Cramer said this could be Black Monday version 2.

Gap down open but not doing much after that. If Cramer said that, and I"m not going waste a millisecond on that idiot to find out, the S&P will probably be 1000 points in the green tomorrow.

[Hongbit]

33 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Futures markets opened at 6. E-mini (S&P futures) down close to a couple of hundred. You can find it if you look, but Jim Cramer said this could be Black Monday version 2.

Gap down open but not doing much after that. If Cramer said that, and I"m not going waste a millisecond on that idiot to find out, the S&P will probably be 1000 points in the green tomorrow.

Saw the same thing and felt much better when Cramer started talking 87 Black Monday.   Good chance of a rally tomorrow now.

[Screwball]

The Nikkei didn't open well. Down about 6%. E-mini futures have erased half their overnight loss.

S&P chart going back to the beginning of 24. Watch the $4953.56 level if this keeps going down. The same chart also shows the carnage of the last few trading days - so it's due for a "dead cat bounce."

Edited April 7 by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

No crash but no bounce either. Market down 1.5-2.5%. Bitcoin and Tesla under pressure. Someone(s) trying really hard to support Tesla at 230.

[Screwball]

Today was fun to watch. Incoming chart porn;

The chart above showed the 4953.56 level to look for in the S&P chart for today. It opened at 4953.79 which made for a huge gap down (which was filled by 11 minutes after 10 or 41 minutes into the trading day). Chart from December going back far enough to see the S/R levels.

Also notice in the above chart the range of that candle. High of 5246.57 (around 10:15) and a low of 4835.04, which was at 9:44. That's a spread of 411.53 points on the S&P - in about a half hour. And the gap is also closed.

Once it recovered early it got above the 4953 area and stayed above that for the rest of the day while producing some wild volatility, especially in the morning, then banged off some resistance around 2:00 a couple of times. Fun to watch.

As I type this the S&P futures are up slightly.

[Hongbit]

Looking like we may get that dead cat bounce today.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Looking like we may get that dead cat bounce today.

NYT headline on the phone says "markets regained a measure of calm, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 3% at the open." YMMV, but I don't consider a spike of 3% to be any more calm than a drop of 3%.

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

NYT headline on the phone says "markets regained a measure of calm, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 3% at the open." YMMV, but I don't consider a spike of 3% to be any more calm than a drop of 3%.

It's more calm than a drop of 6%

[Edman85]

My tax loss harvesting was perfectly timed, then...

[gehringer_2]

China escalation put the market back in the red.

[chasfh]

Not at all suspicious. Please, continue investing.

5. Misinfo moves markets

Screenshot from CNBC when false banner was aired on Monday, April 7.

A faulty headline suggesting President Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs outside of China drove a massive market rally on Monday morning, only for stocks to plummet after the report appeared to be false. Why it matters: Investors are on a hair trigger for any sign of Trump retreating from his maximalist tariff plan. The S&P rose more in 34 minutes in one morning than it did in the first 13 years of this century, Axios' Felix Salmon noted. State of play: Reuters on Monday retracted the story that reported Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except for China, citing White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett. The news wire said it published its story "drawing from a headline on CNBC," which posted a chyron with the false information at 10:15am ET. Here's a rundown of what happened with time stamps: At 8:24am ET: Hassett was asked on Fox News if Trump would consider a 90-day pause in tariffs, to which he responded, "I think the president is gonna decide what the president is gonna decide." The word "yep" came out of Hassett's mouth in response to being asked the question right before he answered, but it was obvious by his answer that the "yep" was not a response to the question, rather an acknowledgement to the anchor that he could hear him and the conversation was pivoting. At 9:43 am: The S&P 500 begins to rally. At 10:11am, an anonymous X account (@yourfavorito) posted "HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA mother of all squeezes incoming." The author of that account later wrote in response to a journalist asking him about the post that he got that information from CNBC and Reuters, even though both outlets reported the news after his post. He later said his post was a response to notes from trade desks. Goldman Sachs said it didn't have evidence that showed they sent email alerts about the news, as claimed by one of the screenshots being shared online. At 10:15am, CNBC displayed a chyron on its air during a live report that said "HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA," mirroring the language exactly used by the @yourfavorito X account a few minutes before. At 10:19am, Reuters published a wire story with the headline, "HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA -CNBC." At 10:24am, CNBC said on air that it couldn't confirm the 90-day tariff pause was correct. At 10:33am, CNBC reported that the White House denied the report, calling it "fake news." At 12:28pm, Reuters officially retracted its story. What they're saying: In a statement, CNBC told Axios: "As we were chasing the news of the market moves in real-time, we aired unconfirmed information in a banner. Our reporters quickly made a correction on air." Reuters acknowledged it pulled its headline from CNBC and said, "Reuters has withdrawn the incorrect report and regrets its error." The bottom line: The costly mishap shows how investors and mainstream news outlets have become deeply reliant on social media during breaking news, sometimes to their own detriment.

[Tiger337]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not at all suspicious. Please, continue investing.

5. Misinfo moves markets

Screenshot from CNBC when false banner was aired on Monday, April 7.

A faulty headline suggesting President Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs outside of China drove a massive market rally on Monday morning, only for stocks to plummet after the report appeared to be false.   Why it matters: Investors are on a hair trigger for any sign of Trump retreating from his maximalist tariff plan.   The S&P rose more in 34 minutes in one morning than it did in the first 13 years of this century, Axios' Felix Salmon noted.   State of play: Reuters on Monday retracted the story that reported Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except for China, citing White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett.   The news wire said it published its story "drawing from a headline on CNBC," which posted a chyron with the false information at 10:15am ET.   Here's a rundown of what happened with time stamps:   At 8:24am ET: Hassett was asked on Fox News if Trump would consider a 90-day pause in tariffs, to which he responded, "I think the president is gonna decide what the president is gonna decide."   The word "yep" came out of Hassett's mouth in response to being asked the question right before he answered, but it was obvious by his answer that the "yep" was not a response to the question, rather an acknowledgement to the anchor that he could hear him and the conversation was pivoting.   At 9:43 am: The S&P 500 begins to rally.   At 10:11am, an anonymous X account (@yourfavorito) posted "HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA mother of all squeezes incoming."   The author of that account later wrote in response to a journalist asking him about the post that he got that information from CNBC and Reuters, even though both outlets reported the news after his post.   He later said his post was a response to notes from trade desks. Goldman Sachs said it didn't have evidence that showed they sent email alerts about the news, as claimed by one of the screenshots being shared online.   At 10:15am, CNBC displayed a chyron on its air during a live report that said "HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA," mirroring the language exactly used by the @yourfavorito X account a few minutes before.   At 10:19am, Reuters published a wire story with the headline, "HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA -CNBC."   At 10:24am, CNBC said on air that it couldn't confirm the 90-day tariff pause was correct.   At 10:33am, CNBC reported that the White House denied the report, calling it "fake news."   At 12:28pm, Reuters officially retracted its story.   What they're saying: In a statement, CNBC told Axios: "As we were chasing the news of the market moves in real-time, we aired unconfirmed information in a banner. Our reporters quickly made a correction on air."   Reuters acknowledged it pulled its headline from CNBC and said, "Reuters has withdrawn the incorrect report and regrets its error."   The bottom line: The costly mishap shows how investors and mainstream news outlets have become deeply reliant on social media during breaking news, sometimes to their own detriment.

If the story was the reason for the early rally, then why did the Asia and Europe markets go up so much before the story was reported?  

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If the story was the reason for the early rally, then why did the Asia and Europe markets go up so much before the story was reported?  

It's all suspicious, I guess. Carry on.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If the story was the reason for the early rally, then why did the Asia and Europe markets go up so much before the story was reported?  

I would guess that after the last round of escalation rhetoric between the US and China everyone assumed things had reached such an irrational point that both sides would see the need to step back - so the thought was out there before the faked report, and of course the fake report was easy to accept because it was what they all wanted to hear.

[Deleterious]

15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If the story was the reason for the early rally, then why did the Asia and Europe markets go up so much before the story was reported?  

They didn't.  Monday was a bloodbath in Asia.  Asia was up today (Tuesday) but this story happened  Monday morning. 

 

 

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

They didn't.  Monday was a bloodbath in Asia.  Asia was up today (Tuesday) but this story happened  Monday morning. 

 

 

I thought the story was this morning.  

[Deleterious]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I thought the story was this morning.  

The first paragraph from the post @chasfh made.

Quote

Screenshot from CNBC when false banner was aired on Monday, April 7.

A faulty headline suggesting President Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs outside of China drove a massive market rally on Monday morning, only for stocks to plummet after the report appeared to be false.

 

[Deleterious]

Visualized.

 

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Visualized.

 

Oh OK, I misread it.  I thought it was talking about today's morning rally and afternoon plunge.  

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Oh OK, I misread it.  I thought it was talking about today's morning rally and afternoon plunge.  

I did also since I had just posted about the turn down this afternoon. The headline is a little off, it was more like 20 min than a few seconds - my tightest chart has 8 minutes on the up and about 12 to come back down.

[Edman85]

If it can stay down for another day or two so my next paycheck's 401k contribution results in discounted shares, that'd be great...

[Screwball]

22 hours ago, Screwball said:

Today was fun to watch. Incoming chart porn;

The chart above showed the 4953.56 level to look for in the S&P chart for today. It opened at 4953.79 which made for a huge gap down (which was filled by 11 minutes after 10 or 41 minutes into the trading day). Chart from December going back far enough to see the S/R levels.

Also notice in the above chart the range of that candle. High of 5246.57 (around 10:15) and a low of 4835.04, which was at 9:44. That's a spread of 411.53 points on the S&P - in about a half hour. And the gap is also closed.

Once it recovered early it got above the 4953 area and stayed above that for the rest of the day while producing some wild volatility, especially in the morning, then banged off some resistance around 2:00 a couple of times. Fun to watch.

As I type this the S&P futures are up slightly.

I documented this a few days ago. As usual, the pigmen win again. We are the chumps.

You didn't even get kissed. How's it feel?

[1776]

43 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

If it can stay down for another day or two so my next paycheck's 401k contribution results in discounted shares, that'd be great...

The perfect perspective.