Investing

[Hongbit]

Treasuries spiked overnight as it appears China is dumping.   10 year taking off in the wrong direction of what the administration wanted.    They wanted it down around 3.5% and it’s ready to pass 5% with nothing to really stop it from climbing more.  The markets are really spooked.  

Today could be really ugly on Wall St.

[mtutiger]

lol, these guys don't actually think Main Street isn't going to be hurt do they?

[Tigerbomb13]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

lol, these guys don't actually think Main Street isn't going to be hurt do they?

Just complete incompetence all around

[Tiger337]

24 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

Just complete incompetence all around

They believe that main street will suffer briefly and then Trump will rebuild everything with tariffs.  They live in a fantasy world.  

[Tigerbomb13]

The EU hits back with retaliatory tariffs on top of the ones China hit us with. It should be a bloodbath today. 

[ewsieg]

Facebook was kind of funny yesterday when 2 of my MAGA friends spent the morning touting the stock market bump.  They seemed to get quiet as the day went on.

As for this morning, i'm surprised it's holding up.  What news could folks be expecting because the overnight news was not good? 

[Deleterious]

Not making any predictions.  But it wouldn't totally shock me if the markets just kinda stood in place for a bit.  Once we start getting some hard data is when we need to buckle up.  Layoffs, rising inflation/unemployment, bad consumer data, etc. 

[Deleterious]

Something that is simmering on the back burner worth watching.  The US has just over $9 trilling in debt maturing in 2025.  Since we do not have $9 trillion in the couch cushions, we have to roll it over and refinance it.  We do that by selling treasuries.  We are already seeing light interest in those.  Dumping $9 trillion more onto the market could cause some issues. 

[Deleterious]

One other thing.  JPow's term ends in May 2026.  It will be interesting to see who the president appoints to that position.  It will be a dove for sure, but no clue who is dovish among the candidates. 

[mtutiger]

7 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Facebook was kind of funny yesterday when 2 of my MAGA friends spent the morning touting the stock market bump.  They seemed to get quiet as the day went on.

As for this morning, i'm surprised it's holding up.  What news could folks be expecting because the overnight news was not good? 

At about 8:00 AM Central, Bessent was out there talking about how it was "Main Street, not Wall Street's, turn"

By 2:00 PM Central, his boss was out there heralding the big gains on Wall Street.

You'll never consistency...

[Deleterious]

 

[Tiger337]

30 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

 

At least one person knew and he's got notoriously loose lips.    

[chasfh]

The $64 question here is, what is anyone gonna do about it? 

 

[Screwball]

Fun stuff. The surge they talked about wasn't 1%, a little less (to nit pick), but close, but the rip later was quite impressive. S&P chart porn daily by the minute.

The index went from 5013.84 at 1:19 to 5381.55 at 1:35. That's a 7+ percent rip in about 15-17 minutes. Quite impressive. I'm guessing some shorts got their face ripped off.

Looking at the bigger picture, what does this do to the longer term market? Going back to the start of the year daily chart.

All the gaps are now filled. Interesting...

The above chart porn Del posted didn't have volume, which matters. Looking at the e-mini during the day gives us some clues.

Big volume at 1:02. Somebody knew. Somebody always knows. Then the rip. But what's up with the huge spike in volume at close?

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Fun stuff. The surge they talked about wasn't 1%, a little less (to nit pick), but close, but the rip later was quite impressive. S&P chart porn daily by the minute.

The index went from 5013.84 at 1:19 to 5381.55 at 1:35. That's a 7+ percent rip in about 15-17 minutes. Quite impressive. I'm guessing some shorts got their face ripped off.

Looking at the bigger picture, what does this do to the longer term market? Going back to the start of the year daily chart.

All the gaps are now filled. Interesting...

The above chart porn Del posted didn't have volume, which matters. Looking at the e-mini during the day gives us some clues.

Big volume at 1:02. Somebody knew. Somebody always knows. Then the rip. But what's up with the huge spike in volume at close?

big spike but no price action so it was in both directions - somebody or a bunch of somebodies clearing/resetting hedges?

[Deleterious]

They knew at the open.

 

[Deleterious]

Oh, that could explains the volume around open.

 

[smr-nj]

They’re laughing at us, as they rake in the bucks…. and they know we can’t do a damn thing about it.

edit to add:  the truth is we probably COULD do something about it, but we won’t.  

Abandoning law and ethics will do that to you.

[RatkoVarda]

not sure if SEC and DOJ share enforcement of securities laws, but does not matter. neither agency will investigate

but state AGs could easily investigate this nonsense. i doubt any will.

[Deleterious]

Almost glad to see people remember that yesterday still brought 10% tariffs on all countries.  Plus, we still have massive tariffs on our 3rd biggest trading partner.

 

[RatkoVarda]

he is completely economically illiterate. he has no idea how any of this works.

foreign investment INCREASES the trade deficit, which he thinks is the greatest crime a country can commit.

(also, he is clearly panicked)

[Tigerbomb13]

54 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

he is completely economically illiterate. he has no idea how any of this works.

foreign investment INCREASES the trade deficit, which he thinks is the greatest crime a country can commit.

(also, he is clearly panicked)

Part of me thinks this was intentional, to manipulate the market for personal gain. But then you see statements like this, which show clearly he is too dumb to make any sense of this. 

[Tigermojo]

52 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

Part of me thinks this was intentional, to manipulate the market for personal gain. But then you see statements like this, which show clearly he is too dumb to make any sense of this. 

Someone is gaining by pulling his puppet strings.

[Deleterious]

This is something to watch.

Trump Asks Supreme Court to Let Him Fire Agency Leaders

Quote

The case is testing a 1935 Supreme Court ruling that let Congress shield high-ranking officials from being fired, paving the way for the independent agencies that now proliferate across the US government. The legal wrangling ultimately could test whether Trump has the power to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

Part of me thinks this was intentional, to manipulate the market for personal gain. But then you see statements like this, which show clearly he is too dumb to make any sense of this. 

The statement is dumb on its face, but that’s not the same as making the statement for no reason.