Investing

[John_Brian_K]

59 minutes ago, 1776 said:

After this month I’m surprised this thread hasn’t gotten any love. Has anyone taken any actions during the volatility this month? Sell? Buy? Hold?

I have autobuys every month, that is not changing.  I am not selling anything I am not buying more of anything (although that I WOULD be doing if I could right now) it is buttclenching watching the market the past few weeks, but still not as bad as it was in 2/2020 so I am hopeful it does not get much worse.

The market is too entrenched with the economy...it will never crash again...if it did we would get real apocalyptic type stuff.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, 1776 said:

After this month I’m surprised this thread hasn’t gotten any love. Has anyone taken any actions during the volatility this month? Sell? Buy? Hold?

I'm buying.

The market will recover from this interest rate panic.

Time to buy at very low prices...

[1776]

2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm buying.

The market will recover from this interest rate panic.

Time to buy at very low prices...

Agree for the most part. However, consider the run-up in the market the last several years, particularly the past year. I don’t know that we’re close to “very low prices” yet. I’ve been averaging into existing funds when the reddest of trading days come around. Best of luck going forward.
 

[1984Echoes]

14 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

... The market is too entrenched with the economy...

And the economy is expanding rapidly.

Come springtime, both normal economic expansion/ recovery from pandemic-induced sluggishness, AND a boom in infrastructure activity across the nation will be a major boost again, for the economy. That will run through November of next year before it gets too cold in the north for infrastructure to continue. But then Holiday season shopping will boom off the charts because of all the pent up demand the past two years, and plus this summer's economic boom.

The next twelve months will see a 5%+ expansion in the US Economy (read: GDP); something Trump and his fellow GOP idiots could only salivate over (but not have the F'ing brains enough to engineer).

Inflation? Fix the supply chain issues, which will occur naturally as logistics log-jams and sluggish OEM manufacturers clear up by springtime. Funny thing is major investments being made right now to expand raw materials production, manufacturing capacity, etc. will both slow down inflation AND create an additional boost to the US Economy. Raise the Fed Reserve rates by 75 basis points (three 25 basis raises and then hold for the rest of the year as inflation wanes temporarily... save the next 50 basis points for 2023...) and that's that.

Book it.

[John_Brian_K]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

And the economy is expanding rapidly.

Come springtime, both normal economic expansion/ recovery from pandemic-induced sluggishness, AND a boom in infrastructure activity across the nation will be a major boost again, for the economy. That will run through November of next year before it gets too cold in the north for infrastructure to continue. But then Holiday season shopping will boom off the charts because of all the pent up demand the past two years, and plus this summer's economic boom.

The next twelve months will see a 5%+ expansion in the US Economy (read: GDP); something Trump and his fellow GOP idiots could only salivate over (but not have the F'ing brains enough to engineer).

Inflation? Fix the supply chain issues, which will occur naturally as logistics log-jams and sluggish OEM manufacturers clear up by springtime. Funny thing is major investments being made right now to expand raw materials production, manufacturing capacity, etc. will both slow down inflation AND create an additional boost to the US Economy. Raise the Fed Reserve rates by 75 basis points (three 25 basis raises and then hold for the rest of the year as inflation wanes temporarily... save the next 50 basis points for 2023...) and that's that.

Book it.

I am a hopeful type person.  I have to be and while I am on board with this for the most part...I am a little worried about it all and especially finding people to man those retail jobs that will allow the companies to reap the profits from the consumer.  I mean it is no joke, the service industry is pretty horrendous right now, those who are working do not want to be there...I am hopeful it is just covid fatigue and we can soon put it all behind us.

Considering what has happened the past 2 years it is no surprise things are taking a dip, just keep it small and short.

[Archie]

19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm buying.

The market will recover from this interest rate panic.

Time to buy at very low prices...

What we don't know is if this a minor correction or the start of something bigger and more long term. If you are investing now thinking you are buying at very low prices you should relook at that. 

The markets have been due for a correction for a while. With inflation, the fed making changes and world events there is a good chance this could be more of a long term decline.  The volitility of the markets could indicate this.  The good times of the market were bound to end.  Its still to be determined if this is it for a while or not.

[1984Echoes]

Aside from an actual Russian invasion, which would upset the market...

No, I'm not Chicken Little.

I actually have some understanding of macro and microeconomics, and geopolitical dynamics... and I am immersed in the global supply chain.

You're talking to the wrong guy in other words. Try someone else with that...

[Archie]

I was just trying to help you out. Its you're money to piss away however you want.  I hope it doesn't happen because it will impact me too. We will see but no matter these are not low prices. 

Also, don't try to impress me with how smart you think you are.  You are a far left liberal so that tells me what you are and how little you actually know.  You might have that shoulder looked at too. You could have hurt it patting yourself on the back.

[Tiger337]

I see some so called experts telling us there is going to be a massive crash.  Others say it's still a bull market.  I say it's all bullshit.  Nobody knows what is going to happen next.  

[Jim Cowan]

15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I see some so called experts telling us there is going to be a massive crash.  Others say it's still a bull market.  I say it's all bullshit.  Nobody knows what is going to happen next.  

Correct.  No one knows.  

[1776]

If my calculations earlier today are correct the NASDAQ is now down @ 17%. Without checking, I believe the S&P may have closed in correction  territory today.

 

 

[Hongbit]

Any massive crash will be temporary and allow those who run the rigged game and sold high to reset the market so they can buy low again.   

[Tiger337]

Huge day for the market finally.  

[Archie]

Finally, we need a couple week run of this.  We will see what monday brings us.

[chasfh]

I've been buying dips, so I would sell off if I were you. Word to the wiseass. 😏

[1776]

So, anyone still buying the dips? Big dips?  The market is in a perfect storm for destruction…rising rates, war, inflation…you name it. 
The Fed has the ball now and it will be very interesting to see if they raise 50 basis points mid-March if things are as volatile as they are now-I would be surprised. They are in a Catch-22 spot. 

[John_Brian_K]

I buy on a schedule, but the continuous dips are making me nervous.  A couple of the big funds I am in have FB as a top 10 investment...I wish they would dump them because I feel like FB is dying a slow death, but I cannot dump the funds because they have been amazing since I have been in them.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, John_Brian_K said:

I buy on a schedule, but the continuous dips are making me nervous.  A couple of the big funds I am in have FB as a top 10 investment...I wish they would dump them because I feel like FB is dying a slow death, but I cannot dump the funds because they have been amazing since I have been in them.

JB, a good rule for investing is never fall in love.

[John_Brian_K]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

JB, a good rule for investing is never fall in love.

I hear ya, if I had simply invested directly in FB then at this point I would have dumped them, but the fund has 300+ investments and FB is just one of the top 10...+172.13% since I bought them about 8 years ago.  I am not sure what the procedure is for a fund to dump a top 10 investment or even if that is allowed...whoever put the fund together obviously knows a heck of a lot more than me, but I just have really bad feelings about FB since that huge loss last quarter....I see nothing buy red with them from here on out.

I have also stopped buying and selling stocks of any kind myself and trust the funds...I have dabbled in about 10 different individual stocks the past couple years and most of them suck now.  I am a long haul investor not a day trader.  Selling stocks just always makes me nervous.  I have only done it once since I have been investing.

[John_Brian_K]

I think my biggest failure is HUMBL...bought them in February last year at 6.80 per....going for .11 now.  Brutal.

[1776]

6 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

I buy on a schedule, but the continuous dips are making me nervous.  A couple of the big funds I am in have FB as a top 10 investment...I wish they would dump them because I feel like FB is dying a slow death, but I cannot dump the funds because they have been amazing since I have been in them.

Index or actively managed if you don’t mind me asking. Meta (FB) has been beaten up recently for sure. Keep in mind, you are unlikely to have an up to date knowledge of a fund’s holdings. Public disclosure of holdings generally lag by about six weeks. If the fund is actively managed the manager may have reduced that holding already. 
 

 

[John_Brian_K]

1 minute ago, 1776 said:

Index or actively managed if you don’t mind me asking. Meta (FB) has been beaten up recently for sure. Keep in mind, you are unlikely to have an up to date knowledge of a fund’s holdings. Public disclosure of holdings generally lag by about six weeks. If the fund is actively managed the manager may have reduced that holding already. 
 

 

Good to know.  I have no real idea how the inner workings of funds work.  It is a managed fund.  FCNTX

[Tiger337]

23 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

Good to know.  I have no real idea how the inner workings of funds work.  It is a managed fund.  FCNTX

I got out of FCNTX about a month ago after being in it for about 15 years.  I also invested in GLD at the beginning of the year which turned out to be a good move.  It's not enough to avoid the pain though.  Most of my money is still in either SP500 or Bond mutual funds which of course are getting killed.  

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

Good to know.  I have no real idea how the inner workings of funds work.  It is a managed fund.  FCNTX

FCNTX!! As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but CONTRA is a very old fund with history of cool headed management.  IIRC Contra was supposed to be based on similar principles to those the legendary Peter Lynch used to build Magellan. I'm not familiar with it current manager but I'd see what I could find on his history and try to read between the lines of his management statements - which should be in the fund prospectus, should give you some feel for whether he is any kind of cowboy.

[Jim Cowan]

I just buy the index, it is a pretty consistent second quartile performer and the fees are extremely low.  I am 70 years old and 100% invested in equities.  The "advisors" who work in the banks think that bonds are "less risky" because it said so on page 1 of the Financial Planning text, but those books were not written at a time when interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and bond prices nowhere to go but down.  I would like to have some fixed income but at today's rates I might as well bury the money in a coffee can in my back yard.