CMRivdogs Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, Deleterious said: I just bought my dad $10K worth of IBonds @ 9.62%. I'm pretty sure my parents had a mortgage with a rate of 16% on my childhood home. This article says CDs paid 18% in the early 80s. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/historical-cd-interest-rates/amp/ I seem to remember paying something close to that on a home we bought in 1988. The first of a line of real estate failures... edit..looked it up, it was actually about 12%. it did reach 18% in the late 70s. Edited May 3, 2022 by CMRivdogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just read that the 10 year benchmark has closed above 3% only 64 times in the past decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 On 5/2/2022 at 2:53 AM, Deleterious said: Reality TV has taken over Netflix. Seriously? What can you say, it's a lot cheaper to produce than 'the Crown' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleterious Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 It isn't all bad for streamers. Paramount Adds 6.3M Global Streaming Subs in First Quarter to Top 62M, Including Nearly 40M at Paramount+ I think having rights to soccer really helps. I wonder if we see more streamers venture into live sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 21 hours ago, Tiger337 said: It's almost like they should have started doing this years ago. I don't know about years ago... That doesn't make sense since we were in a deflationary pandemic the past two years. But they had 3 meetings last year in September, November and December... where they could have gotten off their asses and made initial interest rate moves. I think June & July 2021 were too early to see signals... although I may be wrong there... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Why did they raise the interests substantially in 2018 and then bring them back down again? My assumption was they were proactively raising rates to stave off potential inflation from the tax cuts. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain what happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Why did they raise the interests substantially in 2018 and then bring them back down again? My assumption was they were proactively raising rates to stave off potential inflation from the tax cuts. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain what happened. I don't know if I would even call what happened in 2018 substantial, but be that as it may, I would guess you that when they started to tighten you had half the banksters who didn't want to hurt Trump's re-election and the other half cowed by any accusation that that is what they were trying to do. IIRC correctly Trump raised holy heII about the FED at the time. And then on the heals of that came COVID so they pumped even more. Edited May 4, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 It seemed substantial compare to the prior 9 years or so. I guessed your interprtation of why it was dropped, but didn't want to get too political in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Tiger337 said: It seemed substantial compare to the prior 9 years or so. I guessed your interprtation of why it was dropped, but didn't want to get too political in here. interestingly enough, when the board re-emerged the investing thread went right back into the politics header like it was on the old board. The intersection is pretty unavoidable I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) The rates were dropped primarily because of the pandemic and the massive unemployment and potential recession that followed. Stimulus checks to keep people afloat while they didn't have jobs to go to was fine. And they basically avoided a recession by dropping the rates combined with the stimulus (and extended unemployment benefit) packages. The stops and starts and multiple Covid waves during the recovery made the Feds ability to read or react in proactive way where it concerns inflation limited. And understandable. I don't even criticize them harshly for not acting sooner. I think it was just really hard to do so given the pandemic circumstances. My point was only that, by September of last year inflationary indicators were clear enough, and the recovery of spending/ economy/ employment was clear enough, that they could have initiated some 1/4 point adjustments. They didn't, they delayed... and now we'll suffer the consequences of a few 50 basis point adjustments. Edited May 4, 2022 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) they got to 2.5% in mid 2018 but we can see they had already cut again down to 1.5% by Dec 2019, which was before anyone knew COVID was coming. And then of course the drop to Zero is COVID in March 20. But even 2.4% is quite low by long term standards. Here is the actual Fed funds rate history. Now this is not the complete story because you'd have to see what they they were doing on QE over the same period as well. I think they has started doing some selling in 2017 of 2018. https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart Edited May 4, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: interestingly enough, when the board re-emerged the investing thread went right back into the politics header like it was on the old board. The intersection is pretty unavoidable I guess. It's always been in the politics section, but politics was frowned upon. The people that started the thread have always believed that Wall Street is the dog and the politicians are the tail and they've got a point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: they got to 2.5% in mid 2018 but we can see they had already cut again down to 1.5% by Dec 2019, which was before anyone knew COVID was coming. And then of course the drop to Zero is COVID in March 20. But even 2.4% is quite low by long term standards. Here is the actual Fed funds rate history. Now this is not the complete story because you'd have to see what they they were doing on QE over the same period as well. I think they has started doing some selling in 2017 of 2018. https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart Yes, the feds got scared/intimidated in 2019 when the market suffered. It had nothing to do with Covid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: It's always been in the politics section, but politics was frowned upon. The people that started the thread have always believed that Wall Street is the dog and the politicians are the tail and they've got a point. Ha, tell that to Mikhail Khodorkovsky. True, in the US money talks loud, but in the end if the Gov sneezes, even the top of the heap can catch pneumonia! Edited May 4, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: they got to 2.5% in mid 2018 but we can see they had already cut again down to 1.5% by Dec 2019, which was before anyone knew COVID was coming. And then of course the drop to Zero is COVID in March 20. But even 2.4% is quite low by long term standards. Here is the actual Fed funds rate history. Now this is not the complete story because you'd have to see what they they were doing on QE over the same period as well. I think they has started doing some selling in 2017 of 2018. https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart Right... which was why I said "Primarily"... although 1% prior and 1.5% due to the pandemic...? Maybe primarily is not the correct word. "Majority", "Overweight"...? Just fishing here for the right term. 11 hours ago, Tiger337 said: It seemed substantial compare to the prior 9 years or so. I guessed your interprtation of why it was dropped, but didn't want to get too political in here. Oh I have no problem getting political in here whatsoever... So... while I said primarily due to the Pandemic... The 1% was pure Pandering. Pandering to a fascist wannabe deuchebag like Trump. I would have wanted to be in the Fed at just that time... I would have felt like the Ukrainian soldiers on Snake Island: "Fascist Wannabe MF'ing Deuchebag Trump, Go Fuck Yourself". I could be making a killing off of selling T-Shirts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Anyone who thinks the Fed made rate decisions based on Trump is a fucking idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 27 minutes ago, Screwball said: Anyone who thinks the Fed made rate decisions based on Trump is a fucking idiot. nice to see SB is alive and ...well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, Screwball said: Anyone who thinks the Fed made rate decisions based on Trump is a fucking idiot. Anyone who DOESN'T think the Fed made rate decisions based on Trump is a fucking idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, Screwball said: Anyone who thinks the Fed made rate decisions based on Trump is a fucking idiot. PS: Anyone remember Nixon and stagflation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Screwball said: Anyone who thinks the Fed made rate decisions based on Trump is a fucking idiot. Just the person I wanted to see here. Why did they raise the rates in 2018 and then bring them back down in 2019? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 12 hours ago, Tiger337 said: It's always been in the politics section, but politics was frowned upon. The people that started the thread have always believed that Wall Street is the dog and the politicians are the tail and they've got a point. Morningstar used to host an active and informative investing forum on their site. Things got political and M* started imposing bans on certain users until most everyone packed up and moved on. Shame, M* is the one place you’d think of first for investment conversations. The forum still exists but it’s nothing like it used to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 58 minutes ago, 1776 said: Morningstar used to host an active and informative investing forum on their site. Things got political and M* started imposing bans on certain users until most everyone packed up and moved on. Shame, M* is the one place you’d think of first for investment conversations. The forum still exists but it’s nothing like it used to be. Most investing forums I have seen are very political and most of the members think they know everything which is not useful at all. The Bogleheads forum is pretty sane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: The Bogleheads forum is pretty sane. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: Just the person I wanted to see here. Why did they raise the rates in 2018 and then bring them back down in 2019? Fed’s interest rate history: A look at the fed funds rate from the 1980s to the present - from Bankrate. com New Fed head approves first rate hike of 2018 - from CNBC FTA; Quote The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to raise interest rates by one-quarter of a percentage point, in the central bank’s first policy meeting led by its new chairman, Jerome "Jay" Powell. The move marks the first rate hike for 2018, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent due to a "strengthened" economic outlook, said the Federal Open Market Committee in a statement. But it won’t be the last rate hike this year — the Fed has already penciled in three increases, with a fourth one also likely, depending on the pace of economic growth. 2018 was before COVID and the economy was hot. Once COVID hit they had to raise rates. We will find out in about a half hour how big their balls are in today's world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 S&P 500 up almost 3%. That is surprising. It usually goes down when the Fed speaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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