Investing

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I love 3YearLetterman..... a friend and I try to do that kind of thing with each other but that guy nails it.  One of my favorite twitter accounts.

I was just looking at it now.  It is well done.  

[Tigeraholic1]

14 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The difference with graphite is that there is no natural resource or geographic limitation. It can be made anywhere, starting with cheap petroleum coke. You just have to make the capital investment.

I was researching were this comes from. Looks like the easiest way to produce it is Tar Sands byproduct from Alberta, CA. I wonder if with the Keystone pipeline shut down does Canada still harvest oil using this method? Sounds like this stuff is pretty tame on the toxic level which is good. Thanks for education!

Edited July 29, 2022 by Tigeraholic1

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Archie said:

I don't know how EV will go over.

I think the thing that many people haven't processed yet about EVs their that their cost of operation is already lower.  We sort of know intuitively that electricity cost more than fossil fuel per BTU, but IC cars are really inefficient!

At $4/gallon a car that gets 25mpg has a fuel cost of $0.16/mile. To compare, Ford claims an EMustang goes 2.4 miles/kWh* and in MI a kWhr costs $0.18, so that is $0.075/mile. That's a $8500 fuel cost savings in 100K miles. If the Fed gives you $7500 back on the purchase, that puts you $16k to the good assuming the cars are roughly equal production cost. (The battery in an EV probably costs a bit more than a bare IC engine, but taking an IC power train as a whole, they are in the same ballpark). Now all that said, if the batteries don't last >>100K miles the economics go down the tubes.

*Ford says you get 28 miles of range for 1 hr of charge at 240V x 48A. That's 28mile/11.5kWr = 2.4 mile/kWh

[gehringer_2]

46 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Sounds like this stuff is pretty tame on the toxic level which is good.

The graphite is, but the process to make it can be dirty. I would guess production moved mostly to Asia to dodge environmental regs. Which goes back to our economic system not being capable of capturing externalities costs accurately. If we had accounting systems that could capture the unrecovered cost of environmental damage done by imported product production, a lot of things would still be done in the US that are not anymore.

Edited July 29, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

56 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

I wonder if with the Keystone pipeline shut down does Canada still harvest oil using this method?

KeystoneXL was to get *more* Canadian sourced fuels into the US. But we were already getting a fair amount of tar sands sourced product into the Mid-west through exiting pipelines before KeystoneXL was proposed and I assume that continues, though I'm no longer in that industry. For instance, when I was working in refining tar sands product was a good chunk of the feedstock to refineries in Toledo.

Edited July 29, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Archie]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think the thing that many people haven't processed yet about EVs their that their cost of operation is already lower.  We sort of know intuitively that electricity cost more than fossil fuel per BTU, but IC cars are really inefficient!

At $4/gallon a car that gets 25mpg has a fuel cost of $0.16/mile. To compare, Ford claims an EMustang goes 2.4 miles/kWh* and in MI a kWhr costs $0.18, so that is $0.075/mile. That's a $8500 fuel cost savings in 100K miles. If the Fed gives you $7500 back on the purchase, that puts you $16k to the good assuming the cars are roughly equal production cost. (The battery in an EV probably costs a bit more than a bare IC engine, but taking an IC power train as a whole, they are in the same ballpark). Now all that said, if the batteries don't last >>100K miles the economics go down the tubes.

*Ford says you get 28 miles of range for 1 hr of charge at 240V x 48A. That's 28mile/11.5kWr = 2.4 mile/kWh

Battery life is another big issue.  First there is the disposal.  What are they going to do with all the bad batteries?  Then there is the cost of a new battery and disposal of the old one.  I have no idea what a battery replacement costs but I have heard its going to be very expensive.  Numbers I've heard -and no idea if they are correct -  is $6,000 to $12,000.  

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Archie said:

Battery life is another big issue.  First there is the disposal.  What are they going to do with all the bad batteries?  Then there is the cost of a new battery and disposal of the old one.  I have no idea what a battery replacement costs but I have heard its going to be very expensive.  Numbers I've heard -and no idea if they are correct -  is $6,000 to $12,000.  

a couple of thing on this. 1st - a car battery is going to have a lot of useful cycles left in it once it's too run down to be a good car battery (i.e. capable of at least 75% of original capacity), so after markets are pretty sure to emerge for them - start up/shut down cycling for wind turbines would be an example. The other is that engineering depts at universities all over the country are falling over each other lining up research funds for development of car battery standardization and recycling tech. This will take some development time, but it's not the kind of thing where there are big inherent scientific hurdles to overcome - it's mostly nuts and bolts engineering process development - takes time and money.

Edited July 29, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

Probably the number of lead acid batteries disposed of in the life cycle of an ICE car equals at least one EV battery.

You also still have to dispose of ICE vehicles. It's why junkyards exist. EVs could have a longer life as there aren't as many moving parts. Once you get down battery swapping, in EV could probably last decades longer as long as it doesn't get totaled in a crash. 

[Tigeraholic1]

21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Probably the number of lead acid batteries disposed of in the life cycle of an ICE car equals at least one EV battery.

You also still have to dispose of ICE vehicles. It's why junkyards exist. EVs could have a longer life as there aren't as many moving parts. Once you get down battery swapping, in EV could probably last decades longer as long as it doesn't get totaled in a crash. 

Yup, and non ev vehicles are already doing away with alot of old mechanical tech. E-brakes on a car for example. There are no more cables to set that e-brake, it is control by an acuator the you push a button on the console and locks the brake. 

[gehringer_2]

LOL. Fed is doing a great job of driving up interest rates. 10yr Treas at 2.67%, down from 3.00% a week ago.....

[Deleterious]

That is pretty funny.

[Deleterious]

At Ford, Quality Is Now Problem 1

Ford had 6.8M cars recalled this year.  Tesla was number 2 at 2.2M.  GM third at 1.4M.

[Crazy Cat Gentleman]

 

(thread continues)

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, Crazy Cat Gentleman said:

 

(thread continues)

Looks like a loser as a company, and their chart has been ugly since November of last year.  Appears there might have been some chatter about this takeover as the price jumped in mid July this year.  Someone always knows.  Not done yet, I get it.

Other than that, it's all about what you think of AMZN and how big of tin foil hat you wear.  That's a conversation for the cesspool of idiocy that dominates our political discourse today.

I would be more concerned about how our monetary wizards give us the soft landing they promise they can deliver as they continue to raise interest rates.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Looks like a loser as a company, and their chart has been ugly since November of last year.  Appears there might have been some chatter about this takeover as the price jumped in mid July this year.  Someone always knows.  Not done yet, I get it.

Other than that, it's all about what you think of AMZN and how big of tin foil hat you wear.  That's a conversation for the cesspool of idiocy that dominates our political discourse today.

I would be more concerned about how our monetary wizards give us the soft landing they promise they can deliver as they continue to raise interest rates.

yeah - I'm not sure how a Roomba gives anyone any more information about what's going on in your house than a smart speaker already does. I don't see the increment. I mean if you put a portable mass spectrometer in it to analyze what it was finding on your floor maybe, but who would buy a Roomba for $20,000?     🤔

[Screwball]

You don't need a fucking spectrometer.  You have a round device that runs around your home and bangs into things while doing a piss poor job of collecting dirt.  The rest is simple math, the Cartesian Coordinate system, and a comma.

But now we are in tin foil hat territory, so fuck that.

The almost 20 percent jump on the news would be good though.

 

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, Screwball said:

You don't need a fucking spectrometer.  You have a round device that runs around your home and bangs into things while doing a piss poor job of collecting dirt.  The rest is simple math, the Cartesian Coordinate system, and a comma.

But now we are in tin foil hat territory, so fuck that.

The almost 20 percent jump on the news would be good though.

 

If they wanted they could probably get the size and shape of your living room by audio analysis from an Alexa/Echo. Just sayin'    🙉

Of course it might be fun to watch a Roomba generate a floorplan for a room out of random walk segments.

Edited August 7, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

Berkshire Hathaway lost $43B this quarter.

I did not lose $43B this quarter.  I am better than Buffett.  Suck it, Warren.

[Screwball]

13 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

If they wanted they could probably get the size and shape of your living room by audio analysis from an Alexa/Echo. Just sayin'    🙉

Of course it might be fun to watch a Roomba generate a floorplan for a room out of random walk segments.

Or you can go to your county auditors site and the size of the house is public information complete with floor plan.

[Screwball]

11 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Berkshire Hathaway lost $43B this quarter.

I did not lose $43B this quarter.  I am better than Buffett.  Suck it, Warren.

 

[Screwball]

And while I'm here, on EVs

Hundreds of new mines required to meet 2030 battery metals demand — IEA report

So what and how many countries are we gong to invade or fuck with to pull that off?

[1984Echoes]

12 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Berkshire Hathaway lost $43B this quarter...

Paper loss.

[1984Echoes]

16 minutes ago, Screwball said:

And while I'm here, on EVs

Hundreds of new mines required to meet 2030 battery metals demand — IEA report

So what and how many countries are we gong to invade or fuck with to pull that off?

 

I vote for Australia and Mexico.

[Screwball]

58 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

 

I vote for Australia and Mexico.

Becoming an Enlisted Soldier or Army Officer

Knock yourself out

[Deleterious]

49 minutes ago, Screwball said:

And while I'm here, on EVs

Hundreds of new mines required to meet 2030 battery metals demand — IEA report

So what and how many countries are we gong to invade or fuck with to pull that off?

Big EV fan.  Love Tesla, drove a few.  I just had the F150 Lightning for 3 days of test driving.  I am all in on the EV future.

But I have questions.

What kind of environmental damage are these mines going to do?  Are these mines in third world countries?  Are we creating another bad actor like the Saudis?

But my biggest question is our electrical grid.  Hot days see rolling brownouts in California and Texas.  How many electric cars can our grid support?

They will work it out I am sure.