Investing

[1984Echoes]

I guess we're getting 75 basis points after all...

[Deleterious]

Journalists drive me nuts.  Inflation was not up 8.3% in August!  That is the 12 month number.  It was up .1% in August.  Yet damn near every article says, "Inflation rose 8.3% in August."

 

[gehringer_2]

  On 9/13/2022 at 2:00 PM, Deleterious said:

Journalists drive me nuts.  Inflation was not up 8.3% in August!  That is the 12 month number.  It was up .1% in August.  Yet damn near every article says, "Inflation rose 8.3% in August."

 

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Finance page journalists lean right. I take some of that as  agenda reporting.

Edited September 13, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

  On 9/13/2022 at 2:17 PM, gehringer_2 said:

Finance page journalists lean right. I take some of that as  agenda reporting.

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Proof?

[Screwball]

This was fun to watch.  100 S&P futures points gone in seconds;

 

[Deleterious]

This isn't being talked about enough.  Strike deadline is Friday.

Supply chain concerns grow as deadline for freight rail strike looms

[gehringer_2]

  On 9/13/2022 at 2:27 PM, Screwball said:

This was fun to watch.  100 S&P futures points gone in seconds;

 

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food is probably a place where workers' wages have been falling behind the rest of the economy. No way they can catch up without prices going up.

[gehringer_2]

  On 9/13/2022 at 2:23 PM, Screwball said:

Proof?

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Larry Kudlow would be a trivial case. You could throw Bartiromo and Paul Gigot in the pot also. They're out there.

Edited September 13, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

 

[Deleterious]

Mortgage rates are now over 6%.  I imagine that is still below historical levels.

[Deleterious]

Current FedWatch odds on a 75/100bps hike is 78%/22%.

I wouldn't be totally shock if they bang us for a 100bps hike and then chill until after the midterms.  

[gehringer_2]

  On 9/15/2022 at 3:54 PM, Deleterious said:

Mortgage rates are now over 6%.  I imagine that is still below historical levels.

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my recollection is for a long stretch in the 50-60's early 70's, mortgages were sort of stable in the 4-6% range. In those days the Fed's mandate was constant interest rates so rates didn't change as much as they do now, and the prime rate target was something like 3-4% I think. My folks had a 5.5% mortgage in 1972,  I took a 7.5% mortgage in 1979. Things got stupid high for a while after that and a lot of folks went to adjustables because it was clear things had to start back down. By '87  things were falling again I and got 8 1/4%. From about there on refi's moved pretty much consistently downward to as low ~3.5%. Then the crash and central banks going to  ZIRP kept them low until this year.

Edited September 15, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

This isn't perfect but it gives the average rate by decade starting with the 70s.

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/#seventies

[gehringer_2]

  On 9/15/2022 at 5:30 PM, Deleterious said:

This isn't perfect but it gives the average rate by decade starting with the 70s.

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/#seventies

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that looks pretty close to my experience - maybe a little high, but things like down payments and credit ratings mean there is never just a single numbers for  any date.

[Screwball]

FDX

They are getting crushed around 15% after hours due to forward guidance.

FedEx issues ominous warning about the global economy, shares tumble

 

[Screwball]

  On 9/15/2022 at 5:34 PM, gehringer_2 said:

that looks pretty close to my experience - maybe a little high, but things like down payments and credit ratings mean there is never just a single numbers for  any date.

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Funny, if you can't buy a house, you can rent one - maybe.

Talked to a guy today who told me a 2 bedroom house with one bath here in Cornhole (read cheap in comparison to national averages) was getting 950 a month.

[Screwball]

I just realized this; on this date in 2008 which I call "Lehman Bros. Day" I told my place of work to shove it - because I was fed up with them - and them of me.  Cool.

Watching the upcoming mess seemed like a lot more fun than working for idiots, so I took a year off and took in the entertainment, then went back to work.

Happy Lehman day!

***

Don't read the baseball stuff, but I haven't read anything from Tiger Lee.  He usually posts here.  Hope all is well.

[Deleterious]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:30 AM, Screwball said:

Funny, if you can't buy a house, you can rent one - maybe.

Talked to a guy today who told me a 2 bedroom house with one bath here in Cornhole (read cheap in comparison to national averages) was getting 950 a month.

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I was curious what a one bedroom apartment goes for here in Battle Creek.  $988 for a one bedroom.  Yikes.

[Jim Cowan]

  On 9/16/2022 at 3:48 AM, Deleterious said:

I was curious what a one bedroom apartment goes for here in Battle Creek.  $988 for a one bedroom.  Yikes.

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Hamilton Ontario, a one bedroom goes for about $1700.  We are about an hour from Toronto.

[Tigeraholic1]

  On 9/16/2022 at 3:48 AM, Deleterious said:

I was curious what a one bedroom apartment goes for here in Battle Creek.  $988 for a one bedroom.  Yikes.

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Interesting, most folks here say everything is fine. Dobbs something something......

[CMRivdogs]

A quick check on Zillow shows rents starting at $1500 for anything decent. I figure it's about par for the area. Especially since it's a tourist/college/military area with a lot of retirees. 

[mtutiger]

  On 9/16/2022 at 11:47 AM, Tigeraholic1 said:

Interesting, most folks here say everything is fine. Dobbs something something......

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Who is saying that everything is fine in the real estate market?

[mtutiger]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:21 PM, CMRivdogs said:

A quick check on Zillow shows rents starting at $1500 for anything decent. I figure it's about par for the area. Especially since it's a tourist/college/military area with a lot of retirees. 

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It's a complete ****show where we are mostly because demand is already high as it is compared to the national average. Next to impossible to find a house for rent for under $2k, which wasn't the case pre-pandemic.

[gehringer_2]

  On 9/13/2022 at 1:57 PM, 1984Echoes said:

I guess we're getting 75 basis points after all...

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which is probably fine. At least from the capital expenditure side, I doubt interest rates have a lot of impact on decision making until they get to or above 4%. The difference between 1% and 2% money over the time horizon of (i.e short) of American business isn't going to change many decisions. IMV most of the move from 0-3% was just picking up the slack in the tow rope.

[Tigeraholic1]

  On 9/16/2022 at 1:51 PM, mtutiger said:

Who is saying that everything is fine in the real estate market?

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Tied DIRECTLY to skyrocketing inflation. Rent has doubled price of milk, eggs, gas doubled. Anything cheaper now than 12-18 months ago?