Investing

[1984Echoes]

I guess we're getting 75 basis points after all...

[Deleterious]

Journalists drive me nuts.  Inflation was not up 8.3% in August!  That is the 12 month number.  It was up .1% in August.  Yet damn near every article says, "Inflation rose 8.3% in August."

 

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Journalists drive me nuts.  Inflation was not up 8.3% in August!  That is the 12 month number.  It was up .1% in August.  Yet damn near every article says, "Inflation rose 8.3% in August."

 

Finance page journalists lean right. I take some of that as  agenda reporting.

Edited September 13, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Finance page journalists lean right. I take some of that as  agenda reporting.

Proof?

[Screwball]

This was fun to watch.  100 S&P futures points gone in seconds;

 

[Deleterious]

This isn't being talked about enough.  Strike deadline is Friday.

Supply chain concerns grow as deadline for freight rail strike looms

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, Screwball said:

This was fun to watch.  100 S&P futures points gone in seconds;

 

food is probably a place where workers' wages have been falling behind the rest of the economy. No way they can catch up without prices going up.

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Proof?

Larry Kudlow would be a trivial case. You could throw Bartiromo and Paul Gigot in the pot also. They're out there.

Edited September 13, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

 

[Deleterious]

Mortgage rates are now over 6%.  I imagine that is still below historical levels.

[Deleterious]

Current FedWatch odds on a 75/100bps hike is 78%/22%.

I wouldn't be totally shock if they bang us for a 100bps hike and then chill until after the midterms.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Mortgage rates are now over 6%.  I imagine that is still below historical levels.

my recollection is for a long stretch in the 50-60's early 70's, mortgages were sort of stable in the 4-6% range. In those days the Fed's mandate was constant interest rates so rates didn't change as much as they do now, and the prime rate target was something like 3-4% I think. My folks had a 5.5% mortgage in 1972,  I took a 7.5% mortgage in 1979. Things got stupid high for a while after that and a lot of folks went to adjustables because it was clear things had to start back down. By '87  things were falling again I and got 8 1/4%. From about there on refi's moved pretty much consistently downward to as low ~3.5%. Then the crash and central banks going to  ZIRP kept them low until this year.

Edited September 15, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

This isn't perfect but it gives the average rate by decade starting with the 70s.

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/#seventies

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

This isn't perfect but it gives the average rate by decade starting with the 70s.

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/#seventies

that looks pretty close to my experience - maybe a little high, but things like down payments and credit ratings mean there is never just a single numbers for  any date.

[Screwball]

FDX

They are getting crushed around 15% after hours due to forward guidance.

FedEx issues ominous warning about the global economy, shares tumble

 

[Screwball]

6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

that looks pretty close to my experience - maybe a little high, but things like down payments and credit ratings mean there is never just a single numbers for  any date.

Funny, if you can't buy a house, you can rent one - maybe.

Talked to a guy today who told me a 2 bedroom house with one bath here in Cornhole (read cheap in comparison to national averages) was getting 950 a month.

[Screwball]

I just realized this; on this date in 2008 which I call "Lehman Bros. Day" I told my place of work to shove it - because I was fed up with them - and them of me.  Cool.

Watching the upcoming mess seemed like a lot more fun than working for idiots, so I took a year off and took in the entertainment, then went back to work.

Happy Lehman day!

***

Don't read the baseball stuff, but I haven't read anything from Tiger Lee.  He usually posts here.  Hope all is well.

[Deleterious]

3 hours ago, Screwball said:

Funny, if you can't buy a house, you can rent one - maybe.

Talked to a guy today who told me a 2 bedroom house with one bath here in Cornhole (read cheap in comparison to national averages) was getting 950 a month.

I was curious what a one bedroom apartment goes for here in Battle Creek.  $988 for a one bedroom.  Yikes.

[Jim Cowan]

21 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I was curious what a one bedroom apartment goes for here in Battle Creek.  $988 for a one bedroom.  Yikes.

Hamilton Ontario, a one bedroom goes for about $1700.  We are about an hour from Toronto.

[Tigeraholic1]

7 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I was curious what a one bedroom apartment goes for here in Battle Creek.  $988 for a one bedroom.  Yikes.

Interesting, most folks here say everything is fine. Dobbs something something......

[CMRivdogs]

A quick check on Zillow shows rents starting at $1500 for anything decent. I figure it's about par for the area. Especially since it's a tourist/college/military area with a lot of retirees. 

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Interesting, most folks here say everything is fine. Dobbs something something......

Who is saying that everything is fine in the real estate market?

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

A quick check on Zillow shows rents starting at $1500 for anything decent. I figure it's about par for the area. Especially since it's a tourist/college/military area with a lot of retirees. 

It's a complete ****show where we are mostly because demand is already high as it is compared to the national average. Next to impossible to find a house for rent for under $2k, which wasn't the case pre-pandemic.

[gehringer_2]

On 9/13/2022 at 9:57 AM, 1984Echoes said:

I guess we're getting 75 basis points after all...

which is probably fine. At least from the capital expenditure side, I doubt interest rates have a lot of impact on decision making until they get to or above 4%. The difference between 1% and 2% money over the time horizon of (i.e short) of American business isn't going to change many decisions. IMV most of the move from 0-3% was just picking up the slack in the tow rope.

[Tigeraholic1]

31 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Who is saying that everything is fine in the real estate market?

Tied DIRECTLY to skyrocketing inflation. Rent has doubled price of milk, eggs, gas doubled. Anything cheaper now than 12-18 months ago?