Investing

[Deleterious]

Whatever Happened to the Starter Home?

[Screwball]

Almost bedtime as I have a class tomorrow, so I'm looking at the futures before I go nappy. Crude is up slightly @ $78.90ish. S&P futures down 17.  See what happens while we sleep, but there are some potential problems.

From the FOREX world the GBP/USD had a flash crash.  Twitter said the CME halted futures. The pair is down around 3% which is huge in the FOREX world. Read; the weather may not matter.

We'll see what it looks like in the morning.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Almost bedtime as I have a class tomorrow, so I'm looking at the futures before I go nappy. Crude is up slightly @ $78.90ish. S&P futures down 17.  See what happens while we sleep, but there are some potential problems.

From the FOREX world the GBP/USD had a flash crash.  Twitter said the CME halted futures. The pair is down around 3% which is huge in the FOREX world. Read; the weather may not matter.

We'll see what it looks like in the morning.

Nice to know that somewhere in the world investors will rebel when a leader comes to office pushing economic ideas that have been discredited for something on 30 yrs now.    

[Screwball]

That isn't the only cause, and certainly not the entire cause.  This is a boiling frog, and has been.

CME Halts British Pound Futures After Flash Crash to New Record Low vs the Dollar
 

Quote

 

FTA: Two primary factors for this unexpected move are attributed to a combination of a skyrocketing US dollar (from last week's 75bps rate rise), in addition to the UK's mini-budget announcement which included several tax cuts that seemed to weigh heavily on the GBP.

and

From the record high of 2.116 in late 2007 to the bottom of the flash crash, the pound has fallen 50 percent vs the US dollar.

 

****

The S&P futures are down about 22 as I type this.  Crude is about $78 and has drifted down all night.

I will wait and see where this goes as we get closer to the open, and probably wait and see what oil does (and USO) before pulling the trigger on the trade.  IF the FOREX stuff rattles the markets it could drag crude along with it.

I have to go so I will have to see what the action looks like when I get back home around 2. Since this is a "impulse" trade, I can't just set a buy order or limit order with a stop, you would need to watch what happens and pull the trigger when and if it presents itself.

[Screwball]

To my point above about uncertainty.  This guy is an old floor trader and has been in the business for a long time.

 

[Screwball]

There is an old saying in the market; don't try to catch a falling knife.

That would be today for the oil trade.  Everything down. No good entry.  Down %2.5 as I type this.  GBP/USD recovered about half of what it lost last night. World financial wizards are mostly silent.

[Tiger337]

I am now mostly out of the market and am invested more in short-term treasuries and CD's.  I'll check back in a few months.  I'll be 60 in two weeks - getting a little old for the buy and hold forever strategy.  

[Deleterious]

😄

 

[Deleterious]

Pretty sure we talked about this place before.

Two arrested on fraud charges linked to ‘$100mn deli’ in New Jersey

Quote

A New Jersey sandwich shop with a valuation of $100mn, which became a symbol of stock market exuberance, was at the centre of an international conspiracy that defrauded investors and wrecked the ambitions of two high-school teachers, according to an indictment unsealed in US federal court on Monday.

Federal agents in North Carolina arrested Peter Coker, 80, and James Patten, 63, on securities fraud charges related to their alleged role in inflating the share price of Hometown International. Coker’s 53-year-old son Peter Coker Jr also faces charges and is still at large.

Quote

Hometown’s share price soared from $1 in October 2019 to nearly $14 by April 2021, even as revenue hovered at about $40,000 and lawyers for the company acknowledged that it was having “limited success operating its . . . delicatessen”.

Prosecutors said the inflated valuation was the result of co-ordinated trades that were designed to create the false impression that there was real market interest in the securities. They added that some of the trades were placed by the defendants themselves, using brokerage accounts belonging to their friends and associates.

 

[Screwball]

At 9:33 today I bought (not really - paper money account) 150 shares of USO at $64.49 for a total of $9673.50.  Of course since then the market has turned over and this ETF is now trading at $64.15 and we are underwater.

For a trade like this I'm only willing to lose a couple hundred bucks, or around 2 percent, so I set a sell stop at $63.20, which would lose us $193.47.

The S&P peaked at 9:41 am at 3717, but has dropped to 3646 as of 12:10.  A reversal of 71 points.  We are liable to get stopped out of this trade.

[gehringer_2]

What? Me worry?

 

Quote

Conference Board's confidence survey for the period rose to 108.0, above economists' expectations of 104.5 and up from 103.6 in August.

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-confidence-increased-in-september--conference-board-survey-2899935

 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

Trade update.  The trade is still in play, but I adjusted it a bit. I screwed up when I entered the sell order and it cancelled. Then, looking at the chart (another screw up because I missed this) I see an obvious support level just to the left so I entered another sell order at $63.15.  This time "GTC" or "good till cancelled."

But we now lose $201.21 if it trips.

This is really a stupid trade, but fun to see what might happen.  I can see a bunch of those Robinhood traders doing something like this, but they have been fleeced and many long gone.  Along with a bunch more to come.

This should be a short term trade to make money on potential disruption of energy logistics. Or maybe not...

If the broader market is going the other direction, you are going against the trend.  The "trend is your friend" as they say.

I'm also watching (the price of crude obviously since this is a derivative of crude) RBOB gasoline and natty gas.  They are trending with crude, as one would expect, but natty is up a couple percent tonight. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Screwball

[Screwball]

Now that I've looked at this, it turns out to be a really neat setup. Depending on which way oil goes (and our derivative), and it goes up, there is a gap to fill.  Over time "almost" all gaps will fill. See chart porn below;

If this gap closes, which it will at some point IMO, the price will be $67.49.  You could pull the ripcord right there and make about 450 bucks and be happy as a pig in the mud.

Or, you get stopped out and take the 200 dollar beating.

[Deleterious]

You need to start a new war to improve the odds of your trade being a success.

[Deleterious]

Not trying to be a jerk here, because a lot of people are in danger.  But some good news about Ian.  It is currently tracking to cut across Florida and go up the east coast, mostly staying away from the refineries in the gulf.  Unfortunately it is also about to reach category 5 in strength.  

[Deleterious]

Bank of England to Buy Bonds in Bid to Stop Spread of Crisis

Quote

The U.K.’s financial troubles have become a global concern. The International Monetary Fund late Tuesday made a rare public warning against the U.K.’s spending plans. Ratings firm Moody’s Investors Service said the plan was a negative for the country’s standing with creditors.

Several banks in the U.K. have suspended or curtailed new mortgages in recent days, unable to adjust to the whipsawing changes in bond yields, which set a benchmark for lending through the economy. 

The decline in value of U.K. government bonds, meant to be among the safest assets around, spread pain among investors such as insurance companies and pension funds. Shares in insurers and pension-fund managers in the U.K. were among the biggest losers in the stock market on Wednesday despite the BOE intervention. Aviva PLC, Legal & General Group PLC and M&G PLC fell more than 8% in intraday trading.

 

[Deleterious]

Crazy times. But glad they are doing this.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-beefs-up-security-across-oil-gas-sector-2022-09-28/?utm_source=reddit.com

[Screwball]

15 hours ago, Deleterious said:

You need to start a new war to improve the odds of your trade being a success.

I think our world lunatics are working on that.

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Bank of England to Buy Bonds in Bid to Stop Spread of Crisis

 

They capitulated, and investors think our Fed will too, which is what's driving the market today.

[Screwball]

57 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Crazy times. But glad they are doing this.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-beefs-up-security-across-oil-gas-sector-2022-09-28/?utm_source=reddit.com

Given the pipelines that were blown up where right in NATO's "lake" I'm not sure this is anything but propaganda.

[Screwball]

Trade update after today's close.  Still holding, making some money.

Closed at $67.13, so we are up $396 since purchased.

[Screwball]

Now I to have to give up chart porn.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Screwball

[Deleterious]

I had to look up what a Gilt is.  The British version of a US Treasury security.

 

[Screwball]

39 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I had to look up what a Gilt is.  The British version of a US Treasury security.

 

The currency stuff isn't my bag. But I know the potential consequences that come with it.  I go back to the floor trader I quoted above. Depending on what to believe, the machine seems to be spitting oil and making funny noises.

Who holds who's debt, and who's will be fucked? Every currency against the dollar is getting smoked. I don't know if this has ever happened. He's spot on with these kind of moves spells trouble - and this is maybe an example.  Currency markets are huge leverage, because they don't move much, so the only way to make money is with a bunch of it (money).

More money, more pain.

That will go on til it don't.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Screwball

[Deleterious]

99.9999% of all people, including me, don't understand that system.  Ironically, those same 99.9999% are the ones who will get bent over when that system crashes.