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gehringer_2 Grand Master

gehringer_2

Posted
Posted (edited)

In news from over the pond, Truss collapses.  (tee hee)

Quote

Bowing to intense opposition from Conservative lawmakers after a market backlash, Prime Minister Liz Truss of Britain on Monday reversed plans to abolish the top income tax rate of 45 percent on high earners, a key element of her government’s tax-cutting economic agenda.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/world/europe/uk-tax-rate-cut.html

Edited by gehringer_2
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Edman85
Edman85

They are doing you a favor. A colleague of mine just now with a great quote "The stock market is a device to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient."

Tiger337
Tiger337

The Feds were slow to raise the rates.  Now, they are being slow to lower them.  Is Scott Harris in charge?  

1776
1776

Late to this thread but I enjoy the conversation. I retired in May of 2017. I invested without fail for over 30 years in a 401K. The 401K was still relatively new to the marketplace for the average in

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Screwball Experienced

Screwball

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Deleterious said:

All eyes on Credit Suisse tomorrow.

That is one.  There is never only one cockroach.

But there are other things to watch; Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022 - Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures

Given the news about EU banks, futures were down last night after open, but have since rebounded well into the green.  Some are saying this is an emergency meeting, but don't think it is.  As I understand it, it was scheduled, and this is routine.  Now the expedited part may be what is different.  Not sure, but it looks like some people expect a change in policy (interest rate hike) to come from this meeting.

Along with those issues, OPEC has said they are going to cut production this week, to be announced on Wednesday I believe.  So crude is up %4.5 percent as I type this.  Which will probably show up at the pump in the near future.

This should be an interesting week for those who follow the markets.  Lots of moving pieces to keep track of.

Oh, and Kim Kardashian got whacked by the SEC for spewing shit about Cryptos.  Like anyone really gives one good fuck about that, or other stupid political bullshit they seem amused with.

Edited by Screwball
Screwball Experienced

Screwball

Posted
Posted

Unfunded state pension liabilities grow to $8.28 trillion

U.N. Calls On Fed, Other Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Increases - WSJ - <-- that might be paywalled.  Everyone wants free money.

****

The markets are soaring today.  Nothing from the financial wizards yet (other than speculation).  Crude is up almost 5% and RBOB gasoline over %6.  If this bounce holds past today I'm watching the 3749.45 level on the S&P.  That would close a small gap.

Screwball Experienced

Screwball

Posted
Posted

Inflation hits my local dive.  A few times a week I go to a local dive bar for a beer. Good place to get your ass kicked if you decide to be stupid. Beer prices went from $2.50 to $2.75. I understand and I'm good. I have fun talking to the "Cheers's crowd" and their day to day "stuff."

Where the problem lies is in the change.  At $2.50, I can have 4 beers, tip the bartender $3, and go home with no change.  Now that we have and extra quarter to math out...

I don't want to deal with change, because banks.  I hate banks.

gehringer_2 Grand Master

gehringer_2

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

So Musk is back to buying Twitter at the original price.

I figured once it came out that he waived his right to due diligence that he would lose. How any lawyer let him do that is amazing.

buy it, lay off half the staff to cut costs and put it back up for sale. I really don't get the impression he has any actual interest in owning it.

Screwball Experienced

Screwball

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Icahn, Others Clean Up on Musk's Twitter About-Face - WSJ <-- might be pay walled.

Now that I have more time. I found this interesting because of Carl Icahn.

I've considered him the "takeover insider" for as long as I've followed the markets. The guy who "knew" something. CNBC's Karen Finerman of their Fast Money (5pm) show openly and often talked about trading on Icahn rumors as an example, but many others promoted him.

Not that I think that is a good idea, but in this case, it might have been.  I don't follow that stuff like I once did, so I don't know how CNBC spun it all.  Of course it is Bubblevision.

When this stuff happens the moves are huge, kinda like drug company disclosures. It's also like playing penny stocks.  Huge moves in a short period of time - massive money to be made.

None of this shit goes on without going through some of the largest Wall Street banks who control the primary market in trading, but the takeover as well. We play in the secondary, which halted TWTR trading today for a period of time as the deal "finalized?"

And probably helped goose the market as well.

Edited by Screwball
gehringer_2 Grand Master

gehringer_2

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Screwball said:

OPEC+ to cut production by 2 million barrels.  Crude up about %1.5 on the news.

They say they will. It's always interesting to see how close reality comes to the meeting commitments.

gehringer_2 Grand Master

gehringer_2

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Good gamble in hindsight.  He was always going to have to buy it.  I was just worried about Twitter offering a lower price.

Speaking of Musk, WaPo reporting today that the US actually paid for some/all of the Starlinks he had been given credit for donating to Ukraine. Figures.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/08/us-quietly-paying-millions-send-starlink-terminals-ukraine-contrary-spacexs-claims/

Edited by gehringer_2
Screwball Experienced

Screwball

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

On 9/30/2022 at 11:15 AM, Screwball said:

image.jpeg.e339589f20efaf486c08e2ab2855d864.jpeg

 

On 9/30/2022 at 12:56 PM, Screwball said:

At the end of the day, we made $226.50 for a few days work.  Nothing to get excited about, but since it was an impulse type trade to scalp a few bucks, I would say it was worth it.

I snipped a bunch out of a few previous posts, but this goes back to our oil trade.  We didn't lose any money, so it wasn't a bad trade.  Looking back, probably should have sold when it closed the gap and been happy with the $450ish, given the circumstances.

But you never know.  A few days later OPEC decides to get in the ball game and shit changes.

image.thumb.jpeg.7a6e9ab8e192cfa8050d25b9a6801795.jpeg

The two dashed horizontal lines are our buy/sell points, the vertical dashed is the day we sold. Today, it closed at $71.94.  If we would have stayed in the trade, we would be up $1117.50.

That's the kind of shit that drives you nuts.  But you didn't know OPEC was going to do this. Or, maybe you should have had a better clue.

Edited by Screwball
Deleterious Grand Master

Deleterious

Posted
Posted

And people wonder why I drive an older car.

Auto Loan Interest Rates Climb to Highest Level Since 2019 in Q3, According to Edmunds

Quote
  • The average annual percentage rate (APR) on new financed vehicles in Q3 2022 climbed to 5.7% for the first time since Q3 2019.
  • The average amount financed for new vehicles hit an all-time record high in Q3 2022, climbing to $41,347 — compared to $40,602 in Q2 2022 and $38,315 in Q3 2021.
  • The average monthly payment stayed above $700 every month in Q3.
  • 14.3% of consumers who financed a new vehicle purchase in Q3 2022 committed to a monthly payment of $1,000 or more — the highest level that Edmunds has on record — compared to 12.2% in Q2 2022 and 8.3% in Q3 2021.

 

Screwball Experienced

Screwball

Posted
Posted (edited)

compounding/exponents are a bitch

***

Speaking of which - the search for yield. Posted somewhere above are bank rates for money sitting in a bank account. .01, ain't it great. When do these rate hike filter down to our bank accounts?????  But I digress...

Since interest rates have risen, a one month T-bill is once again a way to make a better return than our money sitting in bank accounts, and still have the ability to get liquid in a short period of time.

I started a bond ladder this week buying 1 month T-bills, and will do so each week for the next 3 weeks.  Then roll them over the next month.  The latest auction went for $9979.30 (out of your bank account to the US Treasury) which will return $10k in a month if you spent the 10 grand - so you make 20 bucks and some change. If you rotate 4 of them you are making around $80 a month on every $40k investment, which is better than .01 will pay on the same amount.

Investing boredom.

Edited by Screwball
Screwball Experienced

Screwball

Posted
Posted

Crude back into the 90s. IF we would have kept the oil trade we would be up $1591.50.

Crude has went up around %22 in the last 11 days (9 trading days).  Our local gas went from $3.49 to $3.89.

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