Investing

[Screwball]

3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Announced this morning.

Nobel Prize in Economics Winners Include Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

FTA:

Quote

 

Announcing the prize, Stockholm University economist John Hassler said their research had proved invaluable during the 2008 crisis, which brought the global financial system to the brink of collapse.

“The laureates’ work turned out to be important to understanding the crisis,” Mr. Hassler said. “The measures that were undertaken rest on the ideas that we recognize today.”

 

It was really difficult to read that article.  What a bunch of complete and utter horseshit. The Bernank should be run out of town with a pike up his ass.  Fuck him.

[Deleterious]

Taibbi spent most of the day ripping Bernanke on Twitter.

 

[Deleterious]

Nothing shocking but still interesting.

Government Officials Invest in Companies Their Agencies Oversee

Quote

 While the government was ramping up scrutiny of big technology companies, more than 1,800 federal officials reported owning or trading at least one of four major tech stocks: Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook, Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.

• More than five dozen officials at five agencies, including the Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department, reported trading stock in companies shortly before their departments announced enforcement actions, such as charges and settlements, against those companies.

• More than 200 senior EPA officials, nearly one in three, reported investments in companies that were lobbying the agency. EPA employees and their family members collectively owned between $400,000 and nearly $2 million in shares of oil and gas companies on average each year between 2016 and 2021.

• At the Defense Department, officials in the office of the secretary reported collectively owning between $1.2 million and $3.4 million of stock in aerospace and defense companies on average each year examined by the Journal. Some held stock in Chinese companies while the U.S. was considering blacklisting the companies.

• About 70 federal officials reported using riskier financial techniques such as short selling and options trading, with some individual trades valued at between $5 million and $25 million. In all, the forms revealed more than 90,000 trades of stocks during the six-year period reviewed.

• When financial holdings caused a conflict, the agencies sometimes simply waived the rules. In most instances identified by the Journal, ethics officials certified that the employees had complied with the rules, which have several exemptions that allow officials to hold stock that conflicts with their agency’s work.

 

[Screwball]

36 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Nothing shocking but still interesting.

Government Officials Invest in Companies Their Agencies Oversee

 

It's not interesting, it's fucking illegal.  But nothing is illegal for these pukes.  The people at the Fed were doing the same thing.  We get lip service they are going to fix this but that's all it ever is - lip service.  They are corrupt to the core and laws only apply to us serfs.

Fuck all these pieces of shit.

[Deleterious]

One of the unions rejected the deal brokered by the White House.  So there is still a possibility of a strike.

[Screwball]

I'm having a hard time finding any good news out of anything. So I watch the charts - human behavior you might say.

First, if we were still in our oil trade it might be time to dump that and take the grand or so we made - or maybe not.

Let's take a peek at some chart porn.  9 month 1 day chart of the S&P. Notice the 3588.11.

The other day the market reversed in the middle of the day and the pundits blamed it on some Fed dick jawboning. I don't think so.  It bounced off that 3588.11 to the penny (shown on a daily chart). This level goes back to the last week of August of 2020.

Things are getting dicey. Next stop 3393.52 if shit doesn't change.  Will the money printers of the world capitulate?  Don't know. But there might be a trade here.

[Screwball]

I was busy with school all day so I haven't looked at the charts yet. I expected a bounce here.  Mostly because some Fed people (not only here) were getting dovish the other day. Then there is that $3588.11 level thing.  Intraday on Monday it hit that level right to the penny, and the rest of the day went up.  A bullish sign.  I haven't done the math, but a gap fill looks like it might be worth it.  I don't know what you could have paid for the SPY ETF (I would use SPY because it is the most liquid) that morning, but I think there was still room to get in the trade.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Screwball
spelling

[Screwball]

I had a chance to look this over.  Chart porn incoming.

I'll start with this one from before.

I have now done the math.  If you were looking to get into this trade on Tuesday, what price will you get? The first issue is we are looking at the S&P 500 and not the SPY ETF as the means to make the trade.  We can't buy the S&P.

I'm looking to trade off the 3588.11 level, to the lower end of the gap at 3739.22. Around a 4% yield if you get the breaks. That in and of itself isn't very tempting.

We are looking at the S&P to give us buy/sell points, which would look like this if we bought out of the gate on Tuesday;

The problem is - we are not, and can't, buy the S&P, so we have to use an ETF.  In this case, SPY.  A derivative of the index. Below is a chart with the same buy/sell point except it is a chart of the ETF. I based the values on a buy in point on Tuesday, and the low of the day the gap would close on 10/6.

Buy at $357.04 with a gap close of $371 ish. So you might make $400 bucks on a 10 grand trade.  The SPY chart;

Hard to see anything here, which is why I prefer to use the index for timing instead of the ETF.

We knew enough on Monday to not make this trade.  Some of the best trades ever, are the ones you don't make.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Screwball

[Screwball]

Thinking later about this.  A few pages ago Del brought up the "Flash Boys" book, which is about HFT (high frequency trading).  The price of servers close to the exchange.  Millions spent running fiber optic across oceans.  All to save milliseconds.

The couple "impulse" trades I just documented happen each and every day by retail traders, or those who run their own money.  Just not quite as fast. But that is how trading works - millions of times a day - for billions and billions of dollars.

While we can trade billions of dollars of stocks in milliseconds, it takes 3 days to settle those trades (tracked by CUSIP #).  How fucked up is that?

It gets better.  When our trade clears, and we get our confirmation, the $357.04 buy price is $357.04XX.

Apparently scalping XX part of a penny millions and millions of times a day makes Wall Street money.  Of course it does.  And somehow legal.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Screwball

[Screwball]

Consumer Price Index Summary

Quote

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all items increase. These increases were partly offset by a 4.9-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, as it did in August. The indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in September, including those for used cars and trucks, apparel, and communication. The all items index increased 8.2 percent for the 12 months ending September, a slightly smaller figure than the 8.3-percent increase for the period ending August. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 19.8 percent for the 12 months ending September, a smaller increase than the 23.8-percent increase for the period ending August. The food index increased 11.2 percent over the last year.

Ouch!

Your move Jay.

[CMRivdogs]

 

[Deleterious]

48 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Consumer Price Index Summary

Ouch!

Your move Jay.

That is ugly.

[Tigeraholic1]

But I thought Biden was fixing inflation? 🤔

[Screwball]

43 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

I don't remember the exact numbers, but we (those on SS) got an X% raise (like this one) last year but our supplemental insurance went up enough to eat all our gains and then some.

Thanks assholes.

[Screwball]

40 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

That is ugly.

Still down, but the market is recovering nicely so far.

***

Good thing we didn't make that SPY trade - talk about getting smoked

[Screwball]

Overlooked data point today; US Jobless Claims Reach Six-Week High in Wake of Hurricane Ian

[Screwball]

Around 171 S&P points in 2 hours 15 minutes.  This is not a normal market.  I'm guessing some pain was felt by some.

[Deleterious]

Who knew inflation was so good for the market.

[Screwball]

I was wondering about exactly this today.  Happen to cross my Twitter.

I remember 4 of those.  One in 2008, a buddy of mine sold over a million bucks worth of stock in the morning - a total capitulation - only to watch it go nuts just after he sold.  We met and had beers later that day.  He didn't look well.

[Screwball]

3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Who knew inflation was so good for the market.

I watched this from before the 8:30 print.  The e-minis (S&P futures) were up then.  Took the huge shit when the print hit. Then of course the S&P was going to open gap down at 9:30, which it did, and not long after it was off to the races.

Wild.  I have no clue what to think.

[Screwball]

Another visual.

 

[gehringer_2]

Kwasi Kwarteng fired. Liz Truzz throwing ballast overboard to try and keep her government from sinking. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wrapup-1-uks-truss-sacrifices-133141097.html

If the conservatives can't even keep their bankers happy, what are they good for?

[gehringer_2]

tough day on Wall Street. Still it's hard to be upset at a day when Musk is leading the losers. (⬇️2.5 billion)

Edited October 14, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:28 PM, gehringer_2 said:

tough day on Wall Street. Still it's hard to be upset at a day when Musk is leading the losers. (⬇️2.5 billion)

I'm guessing Paul and Nancy are not quite as giddy as you are, nor all the people who have Vanguard accounts, but hey, it's great losing money as long as it's people you hate and it makes you feel good.

Pelosi Exercises Tesla Stock Options To Buy $2 Million In Shares - from March

TSLA Institutional Holdings - from the NASDAQ

Or maybe you forgot to disclose you were short, but I doubt that is the case.

Up over 7% today.

[Deleterious]

Netflix reports tomorrow.  Tesla on Wednesday.